Issued 2026-09-16 at $33.53 · now $33.53 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ROL has typically landed between $30.02 and $36.78 — a range of −10.5% to +9.7% from the issuance price $33.53.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($33.53) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ROL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $33.53 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $33.53 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $33.67 (+0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $32.2–$35.15
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $30.02–$36.78
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-16 | −29.9% | −29.9% | +10.8% |
| 2008-09-18 | −27.9% | −36.7% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-24 | −27.0% | −31.6% | +2.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-10-15 | +37.9% | +0.0% | +37.9% |
| 2008-07-16 | +30.6% | +0.0% | +30.6% |
| 2008-07-15 | +29.9% | +0.0% | +30.9% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$18.6B
market cap
$1.10
EPS (TTM)
35.1
P/E (TTM)
2026-11-04
next earnings
Revenue$3.8B
'20'25
Net income$527M
'20'25
Free cash flow$650M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr14.0%
'20'25
ROE · by yr38.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.76
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$43.64
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$26.20
- Analyst target · range $32.00–$67.00$45.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$33.53
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+0.9%
n=18
Feb
68%
+1.4%
n=19
Mar
74%
+2.5%
n=19
Apr
53%
+1.2%
n=19
May
58%
−0.1%
n=19
Jun
58%
+0.9%
n=19
Jul
58%
+2.8%
n=19
Aug
47%
+0.4%
n=19
Sep
63%
+0.7%
n=19
Oct
50%
+3.1%
n=18
Nov
67%
+2.2%
n=18
Dec
61%
−0.0%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-25 | Chandler Elizabeth B | officer | Sale | 14,201 @ $59.36 | $843K | −20.2% of holding | −4.0% | −48.8% | 55,977 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-28 | ROLLINS GARY W | director | Sale | 10,355 @ $62.83 | $651K | −0.2% of holding | −1.4% | −45.8% | 5,312,114 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-28 | Wilson John F | director | Sale | 5,344 @ $62.83 | $336K | −0.9% of holding | −1.4% | −45.8% | 594,705 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-28 | Chandler Elizabeth B | officer | Sale | 1,329 @ $62.83 | $84K | −2.2% of holding | −1.4% | −45.8% | 58,832 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-28 | Gahlhoff Jerry Jr. | director | Sale | 1,307 @ $62.83 | $82K | −0.4% of holding | −1.4% | −45.8% | 327,079 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-28 | Tesh Thomas D | officer | Sale | 323 @ $62.83 | $20K | −1.1% of holding | −1.4% | −45.8% | 28,021 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | ROLLINS GARY W | director | Sale | 19,094 @ $63.26 | $1.2M | −0.4% of holding | −6.3% | −45.5% | 5,322,469 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Wilson John F | director | Sale | 7,538 @ $63.26 | $477K | −1.2% of holding | −6.3% | −45.5% | 600,049 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Gahlhoff Jerry Jr. | director | Sale | 4,510 @ $63.26 | $285K | −1.4% of holding | −6.3% | −45.5% | 328,386 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Chandler Elizabeth B | officer | Sale | 2,151 @ $63.26 | $136K | −3.5% of holding | −6.3% | −45.5% | 60,161 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Tesh Thomas D | officer | Sale | 887 @ $63.26 | $56K | −3.0% of holding | −6.3% | −45.5% | 28,344 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | Tesh Thomas D | officer | Sale | 2,396 @ $60.06 | $144K | −7.6% of holding | +7.3% | −35.4% | 29,231 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Wilson John F | director | Sale | 1,520 @ $59.40 | $90K | −0.2% of holding | +1.6% | −33.8% | 607,587 | Form 4 · filed 24 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Tesh Thomas D | officer | Sale | 2,396 @ $59.73 | $143K | −7.0% of holding | +1.9% | −32.3% | 31,627 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Tesh Thomas D | officer | Sale | 2,395 @ $57.77 | $138K | −6.5% of holding | +1.1% | −16.9% | 34,732 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Gary W. Rollins Voting Trust U/A dated September 14, 1994 | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 19,297,383 @ $56.93 | $1.1B | −11.7% of holding | −0.6% | −18.8% | 145,284,066 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | LOR INC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 19,297,383 @ $56.93 | $1.1B | −11.7% of holding | −0.6% | −18.8% | 145,284,066 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | R. Randall Rollins Voting Trust U/A dated August 25, 1994 | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 19,297,383 @ $56.93 | $1.1B | −11.7% of holding | −0.6% | −18.8% | 145,284,066 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Gary W. Rollins Voting Trust U/A dated September 14, 1994 | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 702,617 @ $56.93 | $40.0M | −8.0% of holding | −0.6% | −18.8% | 8,028,982 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | R. Randall Rollins Voting Trust U/A dated August 25, 1994 | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 702,617 @ $56.93 | $40.0M | −8.0% of holding | −0.6% | −18.8% | 8,028,982 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Tesh Thomas D | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $57.13 | $57K | −2.6% of holding | −9.3% | −3.4% | 37,080 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-24 | Wilson John F | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $58.04 | $1.7M | −4.5% of holding | −1.5% | −0.2% | 632,727 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | Gahlhoff Jerry Jr. | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $56.98 | $855K | −4.3% of holding | −6.4% | −11.3% | 332,895 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-29 | Wilson John F | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $56.77 | $2.3M | −5.7% of holding | −5.9% | −7.2% | 662,727 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | Tesh Thomas D | officer | Sale | 1,921 @ $56.54 | $109K | −4.8% of holding | −6.3% | −15.7% | 38,028 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-10 | Tesh Thomas D | officer | Sale | 1,921 @ $52.81 | $101K | −4.6% of holding | −7.8% | −19.3% | 39,640 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Tesh Thomas D | officer | Sale | 1,921 @ $51.78 | $99K | −4.5% of holding | +8.0% | −6.4% | 41,173 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Hornfeck Traci | officer | Sale | 3,224 @ $53.10 | $171K | −25.1% of holding | +6.1% | −4.4% | 9,602 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | Chandler Elizabeth B | officer | Sale | 13,193 @ $51.18 | $675K | −14.7% of holding | +6.4% | +5.9% | 76,526 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
107 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Wilson John F | director | Gift | 33,000 | 568,804 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Wilson John F | director | Gift | 54,000 | 514,804 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Harkins William Wayne II | officer | Award / grant | 11,866 | 31,877 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Wilson John F | director | Gift | 4,795 | 601,505 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Gahlhoff Jerry Jr. | director | Gift | 3,629 | 393,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Hardin Paul Russell | director | Award / grant | 2,692 | 15,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | JONES DALE E | director | Award / grant | 2,692 | 7,615 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Donahue Paul D | director | Award / grant | 2,692 | 5,387 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Carson Donald P | director | Award / grant | 2,692 | 11,324 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Bell Susan R. | director | Award / grant | 2,692 | 11,474 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Morrison Gregory B | director | Award / grant | 2,692 | 11,324 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Rollins Pam R | director | Award / grant | 2,692 | 480,263 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Rollins Timothy Curtis | director | Award / grant | 2,692 | 385,502 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Sams Louise S | director | Award / grant | 2,692 | 11,324 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Gunning Patrick J. | director | Award / grant | 2,692 | 11,324 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Harkins William Wayne II | officer | Withheld for tax | 357 | 20,011 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Gahlhoff Jerry Jr. | director | Withheld for tax | 27,846 | 396,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Krause Kenneth D. | director | Withheld for tax | 10,307 | 138,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | ROLLINS GARY W | director | Withheld for tax | 7,860 | 5,317,872 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Chandler Elizabeth B | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,115 | 70,178 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Wilson John F | director | Withheld for tax | 3,188 | 606,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Tesh Thomas D | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,393 | 35,102 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Chandler Elizabeth B | officer | Award / grant | 12,225 | 74,293 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Harkins William Wayne II | officer | Award / grant | 6,112 | 20,368 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Tesh Thomas D | officer | Award / grant | 10,187 | 37,495 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Gahlhoff Jerry Jr. | director | Award / grant | 74,980 | 424,522 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Wilson John F | director | Award / grant | 12,225 | 609,488 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Krause Kenneth D. | director | Award / grant | 29,340 | 149,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Gahlhoff Jerry Jr. | director | Withheld for tax | 8,075 | 349,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | ROLLINS GARY W | director | Withheld for tax | 5,010 | 5,325,732 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Krause Kenneth D. | director | Withheld for tax | 3,240 | 119,647 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Chandler Elizabeth B | officer | Withheld for tax | 926 | 62,068 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Wilson John F | director | Withheld for tax | 918 | 597,263 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Tesh Thomas D | officer | Withheld for tax | 713 | 27,308 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Gahlhoff Jerry Jr. | director | Withheld for tax | 24,522 | 357,617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | ROLLINS GARY W | director | Withheld for tax | 15,213 | 5,330,742 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Krause Kenneth D. | director | Withheld for tax | 7,579 | 122,887 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Wilson John F | director | Withheld for tax | 2,786 | 598,181 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Chandler Elizabeth B | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,157 | 62,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Chandler Elizabeth B | officer | Award / grant | 6,319 | 65,151 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | purchase | 2026-04-06 | 2026-03-31 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | purchase | 2026-03-10 | 2026-02-13 | $15–50K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | purchase | 2026-03-10 | 2026-02-18 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | purchase | 2026-03-10 | 2026-02-20 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-14 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.