Issued 2026-09-16 at $155.12 · now $155.12 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ROKU has typically landed between $115.03 and $195.62 — a range of −25.8% to +26.1% from the issuance price $155.12.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,232 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-09-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($155.12) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ROKU has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $155.12 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $155.12 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $154.98 (-0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $139.07–$170.89
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $115.03–$195.62
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,232 windows spanning 2017-09-28 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −54.1% | −54.1% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −46.9% | −49.8% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-14 | −46.7% | −51.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2017-10-26 | +150.5% | +0.0% | +150.5% |
| 2017-10-27 | +147.1% | +0.0% | +147.6% |
| 2017-11-08 | +137.7% | +0.0% | +146.9% |
2,232 overlapping windows · 2017-09-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
44%
+4.6%
n=9
Feb
67%
+1.9%
n=9
Mar
22%
−10.2%
n=9
Apr
44%
+1.7%
n=9
May
78%
+8.0%
n=9
Jun
89%
+9.0%
n=9
Jul
67%
+9.6%
n=9
Aug
78%
+9.7%
n=9
Sep
44%
−3.3%
n=9
Oct
33%
−2.6%
n=9
Nov
67%
+22.0%
n=9
Dec
56%
−3.7%
n=9
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Jedda Dan | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $156.81 | $1.1M | −8.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 74,811 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Collier Charles | officer | Sale | 8,843 @ $156.87 | $1.4M | −26.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 24,126 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Collier Charles | officer | Sale | 1,426 @ $157.73 | $225K | −5.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,700 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Fuchsberg Gilbert | officer | Sale | 4,824 @ $155.64 | $751K | −10.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 40,168 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Ozgen Mustafa | officer | Sale | 3,410 @ $155.64 | $531K | −11.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,569 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Handman Christopher T. | officer | Sale | 2,999 @ $155.64 | $467K | −25.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,997 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Collier Charles | officer | Sale | 1,390 @ $156.84 | $218K | −5.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,850 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Collier Charles | officer | Sale | 1,150 @ $157.84 | $182K | −4.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,700 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Collier Charles | officer | Sale | 993 @ $155.80 | $155K | −3.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,240 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Collier Charles | officer | Sale | 740 @ $156.87 | $116K | −2.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 28,506 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Collier Charles | officer | Sale | 671 @ $156.02 | $105K | −2.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,329 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Collier Charles | officer | Sale | 655 @ $157.01 | $103K | −2.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 26,674 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Banks Matthew C. | officer | Sale | 546 @ $155.64 | $85K | −6.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,122 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Collier Charles | officer | Sale | 521 @ $155.81 | $81K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,246 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Collier Charles | officer | Sale | 506 @ $157.84 | $80K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 28,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Collier Charles | officer | Sale | 441 @ $157.92 | $70K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 26,233 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | HUNT NEIL D | director | Sale | 1,419 @ $156.05 | $221K | −12.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,210 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | HUNT NEIL D | director | Sale | 581 @ $156.92 | $91K | −5.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,629 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Jedda Dan | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $157.11 | $1.1M | −9.6% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 65,963 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-06 | Fuchsberg Gilbert | officer | Sale | 10,719 @ $150.00 | $1.6M | −21.0% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,380 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Collier Charles | officer | Sale | 9,313 @ $145.88 | $1.4M | −36.2% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,426 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Collier Charles | officer | Sale | 8,830 @ $145.85 | $1.3M | −34.7% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,639 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Collier Charles | officer | Sale | 1,439 @ $146.38 | $211K | −8.6% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Collier Charles | officer | Sale | 956 @ $146.39 | $140K | −5.9% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | HUNT NEIL D | director | Sale | 1,888 @ $146.21 | $276K | −16.2% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,741 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Banks Matthew C. | officer | Sale | 552 @ $146.25 | $81K | −7.7% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,619 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | HUNT NEIL D | director | Sale | 112 @ $146.98 | $16K | −1.1% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,629 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Jedda Dan | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $141.90 | $993K | −8.8% of holding | +4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 72,963 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Collier Charles | officer | Sale | 9,043 @ $142.45 | $1.3M | −35.5% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,426 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Collier Charles | officer | Sale | 9,043 @ $142.44 | $1.3M | −35.5% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,426 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Collier Charles | officer | Sale | 1,226 @ $142.96 | $175K | −7.5% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | HUNT NEIL D | director | Sale | 1,380 @ $140.54 | $194K | −12.0% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,091 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Banks Matthew C. | officer | Sale | 554 @ $138.88 | $77K | −7.2% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,171 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | HUNT NEIL D | director | Sale | 462 @ $141.30 | $65K | −4.6% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,629 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | HUNT NEIL D | director | Sale | 158 @ $139.75 | $22K | −1.4% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,471 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Jedda Dan | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $143.87 | $1.0M | −8.0% of holding | +2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 79,963 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Wood Anthony J. | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $130.00 | $3.3M | −100.0% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Ozgen Mustafa | officer | Sale | 10,194 @ $144.00 | $1.5M | −34.7% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,185 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-11 | Fyfield Mai | director | Sale | 832 @ $119.64 | $100K | −13.4% of holding | +16.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,389 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Wood Anthony J. | director | Sale | 5,040 @ $119.01 | $600K | −56.4% of holding | +18.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,900 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Wood Anthony J. | director | Sale | 4,868 @ $117.01 | $570K | −27.0% of holding | +18.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,132 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Wood Anthony J. | director | Sale | 4,192 @ $118.28 | $496K | −31.9% of holding | +18.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,940 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Wood Anthony J. | director | Sale | 3,900 @ $120.17 | $469K | −100.0% of holding | +18.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Collier Charles | officer | Sale | 5,468 @ $124.74 | $682K | −22.3% of holding | +13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Collier Charles | officer | Sale | 4,892 @ $125.28 | $613K | −23.4% of holding | +13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,050 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Collier Charles | officer | Sale | 3,800 @ $125.68 | $478K | −20.0% of holding | +13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,200 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Collier Charles | officer | Sale | 3,627 @ $124.60 | $452K | −14.8% of holding | +13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,942 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Collier Charles | officer | Sale | 900 @ $123.13 | $111K | −3.5% of holding | +13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,569 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Collier Charles | officer | Sale | 850 @ $126.07 | $107K | −5.3% of holding | +13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,200 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Collier Charles | officer | Sale | 700 @ $123.70 | $87K | −2.8% of holding | +13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,468 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Collier Charles | officer | Sale | 300 @ $122.86 | $37K | −1.2% of holding | +13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,168 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Collier Charles | officer | Sale | 7,067 @ $127.26 | $899K | −31.7% of holding | +13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Fuchsberg Gilbert | officer | Sale | 4,376 @ $127.26 | $557K | −7.9% of holding | +13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,099 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Handman Christopher T. | officer | Sale | 2,999 @ $127.26 | $382K | −33.3% of holding | +13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,998 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Banks Matthew C. | officer | Sale | 546 @ $127.26 | $69K | −6.6% of holding | +13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,725 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | HUNT NEIL D | director | Sale | 1,114 @ $129.62 | $144K | −12.4% of holding | +10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,859 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | HUNT NEIL D | director | Sale | 411 @ $128.77 | $53K | −4.4% of holding | +10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,973 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | HUNT NEIL D | director | Sale | 398 @ $127.72 | $51K | −4.1% of holding | +10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,384 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | HUNT NEIL D | director | Sale | 77 @ $130.34 | $10K | −1.0% of holding | +10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,782 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Jedda Dan | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $122.56 | $858K | −9.0% of holding | +9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,115 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
210 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Wood Anthony J. | director | Gift | 24,109 | 57,336 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Wood Anthony J. | director | Gift | 24,109 | 44,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Collier Charles | officer | Option exercise | 10,269 | 32,969 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Collier Charles | officer | Option exercise | 10,269 | 41,076 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Collier Charles | officer | Option exercise | 10,269 | 51,345 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Collier Charles | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,773 | 29,767 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Jedda Dan | director | Withheld for tax | 10,285 | 81,811 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Wood Anthony J. | director | Withheld for tax | 8,242 | 39,626 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Ozgen Mustafa | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,357 | 28,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Handman Christopher T. | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,900 | 11,996 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Fuchsberg Gilbert | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,710 | 44,992 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Banks Matthew C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,017 | 8,668 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Fuchsberg Gilbert | officer | Option exercise | 10,322 | 50,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Banks Matthew C. | officer | Option exercise | 1,202 | 4,808 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Jedda Dan | director | Option exercise | 4,221 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Banks Matthew C. | officer | Option exercise | 4,066 | 10,685 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Banks Matthew C. | officer | Option exercise | 788 | 6,303 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Wood Anthony J. | director | Option exercise | 11,256 | 90,042 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Ozgen Mustafa | officer | Option exercise | 4,910 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Fuchsberg Gilbert | officer | Option exercise | 2,623 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | HUNT NEIL D | director | Option exercise | 4,000 | 39,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Fuchsberg Gilbert | officer | Option exercise | 4,651 | 18,602 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Jedda Dan | director | Option exercise | 26,133 | 92,096 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Fuchsberg Gilbert | officer | Option exercise | 3,048 | 24,387 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Banks Matthew C. | officer | Option exercise | 1,248 | 1,249 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Wood Anthony J. | director | Option exercise | 20,941 | 47,868 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Wood Anthony J. | director | Option exercise | 1,407 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Collier Charles | officer | Option exercise | 29,340 | 44,540 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Collier Charles | officer | Option exercise | 29,340 | 29,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | HUNT NEIL D | director | Conversion | 2,000 | 22,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Ozgen Mustafa | officer | Option exercise | 16,151 | 35,336 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Jedda Dan | director | Option exercise | 4,186 | 16,742 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Ozgen Mustafa | officer | Option exercise | 6,790 | 27,159 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | HUNT NEIL D | director | Option exercise | 4,000 | 24,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Wood Anthony J. | director | Option exercise | 8,278 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Handman Christopher T. | officer | Option exercise | 11,898 | 59,492 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Ozgen Mustafa | officer | Option exercise | 4,451 | 35,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Banks Matthew C. | officer | Option exercise | 828 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Handman Christopher T. | officer | Option exercise | 11,898 | 17,896 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Jedda Dan | director | Option exercise | 17,726 | 53,179 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.