Issued 2026-09-16 at $39.57 · now $39.57 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ROIV has typically landed between $31.75 and $50.76 — a range of −19.8% to +28.3% from the issuance price $39.57.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,428 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-12-08 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($39.57) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ROIV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $39.57 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $39.57 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $40.53 (+2.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $37.23–$43.84
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $31.75–$50.76
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,428 windows spanning 2020-12-08 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-12-20 | −47.2% | −48.8% | +0.0% |
| 2021-12-21 | −41.8% | −44.5% | +0.0% |
| 2021-09-17 | −41.2% | −41.2% | +4.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-11-24 | +69.1% | −5.2% | +93.4% |
| 2021-11-18 | +66.5% | −18.3% | +66.5% |
| 2022-09-29 | +65.6% | +0.0% | +65.6% |
1,428 overlapping windows · 2020-12-08 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
33%
−7.2%
n=6
Feb
33%
+5.3%
n=6
Mar
0%
−8.8%
n=6
Apr
83%
+2.2%
n=6
May
50%
+3.5%
n=6
Jun
83%
+4.3%
n=6
Jul
67%
+2.7%
n=6
Aug
67%
+1.1%
n=6
Sep
50%
+3.5%
n=6
Oct
60%
+10.1%
n=5
Nov
80%
+2.5%
n=5
Dec
80%
+23.2%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Fitzgerald Meghan | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $39.90 | $798K | −31.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 42,963 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Venker Eric | director | Sale | 166,182 @ $35.63 | $5.9M | −9.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,632,972 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Venker Eric | director | Sale | 33,818 @ $36.44 | $1.2M | −2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,599,154 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Sukhatme Mayukh | director | Sale | 144,756 @ $36.48 | $5.3M | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,630,739 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-20 | Sukhatme Mayukh | director | Sale | 17,519 @ $37.30 | $653K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,630,739 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Sukhatme Mayukh | director | Sale | 172,899 @ $37.17 | $6.4M | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,630,739 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Sukhatme Mayukh | director | Sale | 105,141 @ $36.59 | $3.8M | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,630,739 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-18 | Sukhatme Mayukh | director | Sale | 31,801 @ $37.18 | $1.2M | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,630,739 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-17 | Sukhatme Mayukh | director | Sale | 284,707 @ $36.25 | $10.3M | −1.5% of holding | +11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,630,739 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Sukhatme Mayukh | director | Sale | 243,177 @ $36.23 | $8.8M | −1.3% of holding | +11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,630,739 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Venker Eric | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $34.95 | $7.0M | −11.0% of holding | +1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,613,063 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | MANCHESTER KEITH S | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $35.45 | $7.1M | −10.3% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,748,403 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-30 | Gold Daniel Allen | director | Sale | 12,380 @ $35.28 | $437K | −0.1% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,689,166 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-30 | MANCHESTER KEITH S | director | Sale | 12,380 @ $35.28 | $437K | −0.1% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,689,166 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-30 | QVT Financial LP | other | Sale | 12,380 @ $35.28 | $437K | −0.1% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,689,166 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-30 | Fitzgerald Meghan | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $34.90 | $349K | −18.9% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,963 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | MANCHESTER KEITH S | director | Sale | 600,000 @ $34.59 | $20.8M | −4.2% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,701,546 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | QVT Financial LP | other | Sale | 600,000 @ $34.59 | $20.8M | −4.2% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,701,546 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Gold Daniel Allen | director | Sale | 600,000 @ $34.59 | $20.8M | −4.2% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,701,546 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | MANCHESTER KEITH S | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $34.44 | $6.9M | −1.4% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,301,546 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | QVT Financial LP | other | Sale | 200,000 @ $34.44 | $6.9M | −1.4% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,301,546 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Gold Daniel Allen | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $34.44 | $6.9M | −1.4% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,301,546 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Epperly Melissa B, | director | Sale | 15,002 @ $34.32 | $515K | −43.8% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,222 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Epperly Melissa B, | director | Sale | 2,748 @ $34.71 | $95K | −14.3% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,474 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Sukhatme Mayukh | director | Sale | 500,000 @ $34.08 | $17.0M | −2.6% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,677,617 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Gold Daniel Allen | director | Sale | 325,000 @ $34.07 | $11.1M | −2.2% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,501,546 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | QVT Financial LP | other | Sale | 325,000 @ $34.07 | $11.1M | −2.2% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,501,546 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | MANCHESTER KEITH S | director | Sale | 325,000 @ $34.07 | $11.1M | −2.2% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,501,546 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | QVT Financial LP | other | Sale | 300,783 @ $33.92 | $10.2M | −2.0% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,826,546 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Gold Daniel Allen | director | Sale | 300,783 @ $33.92 | $10.2M | −2.0% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,826,546 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | MANCHESTER KEITH S | director | Sale | 300,783 @ $33.92 | $10.2M | −2.0% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,826,546 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Sukhatme Mayukh | director | Sale | 500,000 @ $34.13 | $17.1M | −2.6% of holding | +1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,677,617 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Venker Eric | director | Sale | 153,766 @ $33.05 | $5.1M | −8.5% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,659,297 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Venker Eric | director | Sale | 46,234 @ $33.51 | $1.5M | −2.8% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,613,063 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Venker Eric | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $30.27 | $6.1M | −11.0% of holding | +14.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,613,063 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-20 | Venker Eric | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $29.59 | $5.9M | −10.8% of holding | −6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,647,546 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Gline Matthew | director | Sale | 289,774 @ $29.16 | $8.4M | −1.7% of holding | −5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,736,116 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Humes Jennifer | officer | Sale | 13,538 @ $28.37 | $384K | −13.9% of holding | −7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 84,191 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | Fitzgerald Meghan | director | Sale | 70,000 @ $27.45 | $1.9M | −62.0% of holding | −9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,963 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Venker Eric | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $28.24 | $5.6M | −10.8% of holding | −1.7% | +26.8% | 1,647,546 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Epperly Melissa B, | director | Sale | 41,861 @ $28.68 | $1.2M | −72.6% of holding | −1.0% | +25.9% | 15,804 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Torti Frank | director | Sale | 587,390 @ $27.51 | $16.2M | −4.1% of holding | +0.8% | +18.5% | 13,736,547 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-20 | Torti Frank | director | Sale | 1,012,610 @ $27.15 | $27.5M | −6.9% of holding | +7.6% | +22.0% | 13,736,547 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Torti Frank | director | Sale | 1,400,000 @ $27.42 | $38.4M | −9.2% of holding | +5.6% | +21.9% | 13,736,547 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | MANCHESTER KEITH S | director | Sale | 225,000 @ $26.50 | $6.0M | −1.5% of holding | +8.6% | +23.1% | 15,127,329 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-13 | Gold Daniel Allen | director | Sale | 225,000 @ $26.50 | $6.0M | −1.5% of holding | +8.6% | +23.1% | 15,127,329 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-13 | QVT Financial LP | other | Sale | 225,000 @ $26.50 | $6.0M | −1.5% of holding | +8.6% | +23.1% | 15,127,329 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-13 | Venker Eric | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $26.49 | $5.3M | −10.8% of holding | +8.6% | +23.1% | 1,654,597 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Gold Daniel Allen | director | Sale | 150,784 @ $26.49 | $4.0M | −1.0% of holding | +8.6% | +23.1% | 15,352,329 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-13 | MANCHESTER KEITH S | director | Sale | 150,784 @ $26.49 | $4.0M | −1.0% of holding | +8.6% | +23.1% | 15,352,329 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-13 | QVT Financial LP | other | Sale | 150,784 @ $26.49 | $4.0M | −1.0% of holding | +8.6% | +23.1% | 15,352,329 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-12 | MANCHESTER KEITH S | director | Sale | 275,000 @ $26.76 | $7.4M | −1.7% of holding | +7.5% | +20.8% | 15,503,113 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | QVT Financial LP | other | Sale | 275,000 @ $26.76 | $7.4M | −1.7% of holding | +7.5% | +20.8% | 15,503,113 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Gold Daniel Allen | director | Sale | 275,000 @ $26.76 | $7.4M | −1.7% of holding | +7.5% | +20.8% | 15,503,113 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | QVT Financial LP | other | Sale | 150,000 @ $26.72 | $4.0M | −0.9% of holding | +7.5% | +20.8% | 15,778,113 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | MANCHESTER KEITH S | director | Sale | 150,000 @ $26.72 | $4.0M | −0.9% of holding | +7.5% | +20.8% | 15,778,113 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Gold Daniel Allen | director | Sale | 150,000 @ $26.72 | $4.0M | −0.9% of holding | +7.5% | +20.8% | 15,778,113 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | MANCHESTER KEITH S | director | Sale | 425,000 @ $26.67 | $11.3M | −2.6% of holding | +9.0% | +22.4% | 15,928,113 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | QVT Financial LP | other | Sale | 425,000 @ $26.67 | $11.3M | −2.6% of holding | +9.0% | +22.4% | 15,928,113 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Gold Daniel Allen | director | Sale | 425,000 @ $26.67 | $11.3M | −2.6% of holding | +9.0% | +22.4% | 15,928,113 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
180 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Gold Daniel Allen | director | Withheld for tax | 5,133 | 8,960,761 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | MOMTAZEE JAMES C | director | Withheld for tax | 2,905 | 106,905 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Oren Ilan | director | Withheld for tax | 2,378 | 118,626 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Epperly Melissa B, | director | Withheld for tax | 2,179 | 14,838 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Fitzgerald Meghan | director | Withheld for tax | 1,743 | 41,220 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Fitzgerald Meghan | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 62,963 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Fitzgerald Meghan | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 18,578 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Venker Eric | director | Option exercise | 200,000 | 1,799,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Venker Eric | director | Option exercise | 200,000 | 3,844,834 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Sukhatme Mayukh | director | Option exercise | 144,756 | 18,775,495 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Sukhatme Mayukh | director | Option exercise | 144,756 | 13,224,363 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Venker Eric | director | Withheld for tax | 13,909 | 1,599,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Pulik Richard | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,749 | 271,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Sukhatme Mayukh | director | Option exercise | 17,519 | 18,648,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Sukhatme Mayukh | director | Option exercise | 17,519 | 13,369,119 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Sukhatme Mayukh | director | Option exercise | 172,899 | 18,803,638 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Sukhatme Mayukh | director | Option exercise | 172,899 | 13,386,638 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Sukhatme Mayukh | director | Option exercise | 105,141 | 18,735,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Sukhatme Mayukh | director | Option exercise | 31,801 | 18,662,540 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Sukhatme Mayukh | director | Option exercise | 136,942 | 13,559,537 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Sukhatme Mayukh | director | Option exercise | 284,707 | 18,915,446 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Sukhatme Mayukh | director | Option exercise | 284,707 | 13,696,479 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Sukhatme Mayukh | director | Option exercise | 243,177 | 18,873,916 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Sukhatme Mayukh | director | Option exercise | 243,177 | 13,981,186 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Venker Eric | director | Option exercise | 200,000 | 1,813,063 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Venker Eric | director | Option exercise | 200,000 | 4,044,834 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Epperly Melissa B, | director | Award / grant | 543 | 17,017 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | MOMTAZEE JAMES C | director | Award / grant | 405 | 109,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Oren Ilan | director | Award / grant | 775 | 121,004 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Gline Matthew | director | Withheld for tax | 76,171 | 16,659,945 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Sukhatme Mayukh | director | Withheld for tax | 46,878 | 18,630,739 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Torti Frank | director | Withheld for tax | 40,310 | 13,536,202 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Fitzgerald Meghan | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 52,963 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Fitzgerald Meghan | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 38,578 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Epperly Melissa B, | director | Option exercise | 17,750 | 34,224 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Epperly Melissa B, | director | Option exercise | 17,750 | 169,166 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Sukhatme Mayukh | director | Option exercise | 500,000 | 19,177,617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Sukhatme Mayukh | director | Option exercise | 500,000 | 14,224,363 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Sukhatme Mayukh | director | Option exercise | 500,000 | 19,177,617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Sukhatme Mayukh | director | Option exercise | 500,000 | 14,724,363 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.