Issued 2026-09-16 at $128.50 · now $128.50 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ROG has typically landed between $109.60 and $149.26 — a range of −14.7% to +16.2% from the issuance price $128.50.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($128.50) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ROG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $128.5 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $128.5 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $128.72 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $122.06–$135.38
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $109.6–$149.26
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-10-24 | −57.5% | −57.5% | +1.0% |
| 2022-10-21 | −57.2% | −57.4% | +0.7% |
| 2022-10-20 | −57.2% | −57.2% | +1.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-10-28 | +49.0% | +0.0% | +55.1% |
| 2021-10-06 | +47.7% | +0.0% | +48.0% |
| 2021-10-07 | +47.2% | +0.0% | +47.4% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Larabee Brian Keith | officer | Sale | 830 @ $135.91 | $113K | −13.1% of holding | +9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,515 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-30 | Wallace Peter C | director | Sale | 1,430 @ $132.63 | $190K | −25.1% of holding | +2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,260 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | Wallace Peter C | director | Sale | 967 @ $131.56 | $127K | −14.5% of holding | +2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,690 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Webb Michael Reed | officer | Sale | 954 @ $111.31 | $106K | −10.9% of holding | +0.9% | −0.1% | 7,769 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-20 | Webb Michael Reed | officer | Sale | 673 @ $107.28 | $72K | −6.9% of holding | −0.1% | +6.1% | 9,074 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Wallace Peter C | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $107.37 | $859K | −54.6% of holding | −6.3% | +1.9% | 6,657 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Webb Michael Reed | officer | Sale | 1,197 @ $106.25 | $127K | −10.9% of holding | −6.3% | +1.9% | 9,747 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Wallace Peter C | director | Sale | 3,590 @ $85.00 | $305K | −19.7% of holding | +11.7% | +59.8% | 14,657 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Wallace Peter C | director | Sale | 110 @ $86.00 | $9K | −0.6% of holding | +6.9% | +58.7% | 18,247 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Larabee Brian Keith | officer | Sale | 775 @ $85.87 | $67K | −14.8% of holding | −1.2% | +51.1% | 4,462 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-01 | Gappert Griffin Melaney | officer | Sale | 756 @ $62.55 | $47K | −14.4% of holding | −2.9% | +16.1% | 4,484 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
77 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Russell Laura | officer | Withheld for tax | 31 | 12,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Reeder Raymond Sean | officer | Withheld for tax | 15 | 1,824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-12 | El-Haj Ali Omar | director | Withheld for tax | 8,918 | 37,502 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | El-Haj Ali Omar | director | Award / grant | 24,822 | 46,420 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Faust Megan | director | Award / grant | 1,427 | 7,353 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | OWENS JEFFREY J | director | Award / grant | 1,427 | 13,487 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Costello Donna | director | Award / grant | 1,427 | 6,137 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Berger Larry L | director | Award / grant | 1,427 | 6,637 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Moh Woon Keat | director | Award / grant | 1,427 | 4,723 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Starkloff Eric Howard | director | Award / grant | 1,427 | 1,427 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Roby Anne K | director | Award / grant | 1,427 | 6,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | COPE BRETT ALAN | director | Award / grant | 1,427 | 1,427 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Lauzon Armand F Jr | director | Award / grant | 1,427 | 7,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Morton Jessica Ann | officer | Withheld for tax | 248 | 10,745 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Russell Laura | officer | Withheld for tax | 456 | 12,615 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Morton Jessica Ann | officer | Withheld for tax | 427 | 10,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Webb Michael Reed | officer | Withheld for tax | 351 | 8,723 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Tsao Jeff | officer | Withheld for tax | 257 | 12,149 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Larabee Brian Keith | officer | Withheld for tax | 232 | 6,345 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Reeder Raymond Sean | officer | Withheld for tax | 69 | 1,818 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-21 | Tsao Jeff | officer | Withheld for tax | 181 | 12,406 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Morton Jessica Ann | officer | Withheld for tax | 374 | 11,420 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Webb Michael Reed | officer | Withheld for tax | 307 | 10,944 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Larabee Brian Keith | officer | Withheld for tax | 173 | 6,577 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Tsao Jeff | officer | Withheld for tax | 162 | 12,587 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Webb Michael Reed | officer | Award / grant | 3,451 | 11,251 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Tsao Jeff | officer | Award / grant | 3,451 | 12,749 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Larabee Brian Keith | officer | Award / grant | 2,502 | 6,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Morton Jessica Ann | officer | Award / grant | 3,451 | 11,794 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Russell Laura | officer | Award / grant | 5,002 | 13,071 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Russell Laura | officer | Withheld for tax | 58 | 8,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Reeder Raymond Sean | officer | Withheld for tax | 53 | 1,887 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Reeder Raymond Sean | officer | Award / grant | 651 | 1,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Larabee Brian Keith | officer | Withheld for tax | 281 | 4,248 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-10 | Russell Laura | officer | Withheld for tax | 257 | 8,127 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-05 | Russell Laura | officer | Withheld for tax | 31 | 8,384 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-14 | Reeder Raymond Sean | officer | Withheld for tax | 15 | 1,262 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-14 | Tsao Jeff | officer | Award / grant | 2,304 | 9,061 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-12 | El-Haj Ali Omar | director | Award / grant | 21,598 | 21,598 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | Faust Megan | director | Award / grant | 2,760 | 7,110 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.