Issued 2026-09-16 at $95.07 · now $95.07 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ROAD has typically landed between $79.41 and $115.56 — a range of −16.5% to +21.6% from the issuance price $95.07.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,082 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-05-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($95.07) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ROAD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $95.07 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $95.07 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $97.36 (+2.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $88.96–$105.76
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $79.41–$115.56
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,082 windows spanning 2018-05-04 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2018-09-27 | −30.1% | −30.1% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-11 | −27.8% | −27.8% | +5.4% |
| 2018-10-01 | −27.6% | −28.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-07-12 | +50.9% | −1.1% | +50.9% |
| 2022-07-13 | +50.0% | +0.0% | +52.5% |
| 2022-07-15 | +46.6% | +0.0% | +46.6% |
2,082 overlapping windows · 2018-05-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+3.0%
n=8
Feb
75%
+2.8%
n=8
Mar
38%
+0.2%
n=8
Apr
63%
+3.7%
n=8
May
50%
+3.4%
n=8
Jun
67%
+2.7%
n=9
Jul
44%
+0.4%
n=9
Aug
78%
+9.1%
n=9
Sep
33%
−1.4%
n=9
Oct
75%
+3.8%
n=8
Nov
63%
+9.4%
n=8
Dec
25%
−5.6%
n=8
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-09 | Fleming Ned N III | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $115.00 | $230K | ownership Δ n/a | +9.1% | −6.6% | 2,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-14 | Harper John L | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $73.83 | $443K | −3.6% of holding | +16.8% | +32.0% | 159,389 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-14 | Smith Fred Julius III | director | Purchase | 6,000 @ $73.83 | $443K | ownership Δ n/a | +16.8% | +32.0% | 6,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-14 | Fleming Ned N. IV | officer | Purchase | 6,000 @ $73.83 | $443K | ownership Δ n/a | +16.8% | +32.0% | 6,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-14 | Fleming Ned N. IV | officer | Purchase | 5,990 @ $73.83 | $442K | +4.5% of holding | +16.8% | +32.0% | 140,572 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-14 | Smith Fred Julius III | director | Purchase | 5,990 @ $73.83 | $442K | +4.5% of holding | +16.8% | +32.0% | 140,572 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-14 | Flowers Robert P. | officer | Sale | 5,990 @ $73.83 | $442K | −100.0% of holding | +16.8% | +32.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-14 | Flowers Robert P. | officer | Sale | 3,333 @ $73.83 | $246K | −6.7% of holding | +16.8% | +32.0% | 46,601 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-14 | Fleming Ned N. IV | officer | Purchase | 3,333 @ $73.83 | $246K | +55.5% of holding | +16.8% | +32.0% | 9,333 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-14 | Smith Fred Julius III | director | Purchase | 3,333 @ $73.83 | $246K | +55.5% of holding | +16.8% | +32.0% | 9,333 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-20 | Andrews Todd Keith | officer | Sale | 5,489 @ $91.84 | $504K | −24.0% of holding | −11.8% | +12.4% | 17,394 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Andrews Todd Keith | officer | Sale | 2,511 @ $95.86 | $241K | −11.5% of holding | −4.1% | +8.5% | 19,339 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | Harper John L | officer | Sale | 4,751 @ $94.29 | $448K | −3.0% of holding | −2.1% | +9.7% | 156,105 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | Harper John L | officer | Sale | 1,249 @ $94.88 | $119K | −0.8% of holding | −2.1% | +9.7% | 154,856 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-11 | Owens Charles E | director | Sale | 15,738 @ $98.19 | $1.5M | −13.2% of holding | −7.1% | +7.8% | 103,075 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-11 | Owens Charles E | director | Sale | 465 @ $99.12 | $46K | −0.5% of holding | −7.1% | +7.8% | 102,610 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-10 | Owens Charles E | director | Sale | 1,761 @ $99.14 | $175K | −1.5% of holding | −7.9% | +7.5% | 118,813 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | SunTx Capital II Management Corp. | director | Sale | 12,731 @ $99.78 | $1.3M | −42.8% of holding | −6.6% | +7.9% | 17,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Owens Charles E | director | Sale | 7,304 @ $101.16 | $739K | −5.7% of holding | −6.6% | +7.9% | 120,862 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Owens Charles E | director | Sale | 1,445 @ $98.75 | $143K | −1.1% of holding | −6.6% | +7.9% | 128,846 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Owens Charles E | director | Sale | 680 @ $99.12 | $67K | −0.5% of holding | −6.6% | +7.9% | 128,166 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Owens Charles E | director | Sale | 288 @ $102.22 | $29K | −0.2% of holding | −6.6% | +7.9% | 120,574 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-06 | Owens Charles E | director | Sale | 29,252 @ $100.32 | $2.9M | −16.3% of holding | −8.7% | +3.2% | 150,734 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-06 | Owens Charles E | director | Sale | 18,234 @ $101.45 | $1.8M | −12.1% of holding | −8.7% | +3.2% | 132,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-06 | Owens Charles E | director | Sale | 2,209 @ $102.04 | $225K | −1.7% of holding | −8.7% | +3.2% | 130,291 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-05 | Owens Charles E | director | Sale | 11,640 @ $100.80 | $1.2M | −6.1% of holding | −6.9% | +3.0% | 179,986 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-05 | Owens Charles E | director | Sale | 11,778 @ $99.45 | $1.2M | −5.8% of holding | −6.9% | +3.0% | 191,626 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-04 | Owens Charles E | director | Sale | 46,241 @ $101.33 | $4.7M | −18.5% of holding | −6.2% | +4.2% | 203,759 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-04 | Owens Charles E | director | Sale | 355 @ $101.90 | $36K | −0.2% of holding | −6.2% | +4.2% | 203,404 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
138 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Brooks Judson Ryan | officer | Gift | 100 | 25,475 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Baugnon Robert G | officer | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Hoffman Gregory A | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 70,621 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Smith Fred Julius III | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 427,155 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Fleming Ned N. IV | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 150,869 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Brooks Judson Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 40,000 | 52,458 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Baugnon Robert G | officer | Award / grant | 53 | 24,655 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Baugnon Robert G | officer | Award / grant | 55 | 24,602 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-29 | Smith Fred Julius III | director | Gift | 0 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-24 | Shaffer Stefan L | director | Other acquisition | 266 | 40,261 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-16 | McKay Michael H | director | Gift | 1,000 | 22,192 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Brooks Judson Ryan | officer | Gift | 2,000 | 25,575 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Smith Fred Julius III | director | Conversion | 30,000 | 437,155 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Smith Fred Julius III | director | Conversion | 30,000 | 43,553 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Smith Fred Julius III | director | Gift | 30,000 | 13,553 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-24 | Smith Fred Julius III | director | Other acquisition | 33,658 | 13,553 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-24 | Smith Fred Julius III | director | Other acquisition | 33,658 | 467,155 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-19 | Smith Fred Julius III | director | Withheld for tax | 12,785 | 47,211 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-19 | Hoffman Gregory A | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,527 | 40,217 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-19 | Brooks Judson Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,908 | 27,575 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-19 | Baugnon Robert G | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,251 | 24,547 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-19 | Fleming Ned N. IV | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,129 | 43,964 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Baugnon Robert G | officer | Award / grant | 1,428 | 23,661 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Baugnon Robert G | officer | Award / grant | 3,137 | 26,798 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Hoffman Gregory A | officer | Award / grant | 1,912 | 39,055 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Hoffman Gregory A | officer | Award / grant | 4,689 | 43,744 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Smith Fred Julius III | director | Award / grant | 3,816 | 44,091 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Smith Fred Julius III | director | Award / grant | 15,905 | 59,996 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Fleming Ned N. IV | officer | Award / grant | 1,428 | 42,956 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Fleming Ned N. IV | officer | Award / grant | 3,137 | 46,093 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Brooks Judson Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 1,428 | 26,682 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Brooks Judson Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 3,801 | 30,483 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-20 | Hoffman Gregory A | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,925 | 37,143 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-20 | Smith Fred Julius III | director | Withheld for tax | 4,925 | 40,275 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-20 | Fleming Ned N. IV | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,154 | 41,528 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-20 | Smith Fred Julius III | director | Withheld for tax | 3,025 | 433,497 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-20 | Hoffman Gregory A | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,513 | 20,621 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-20 | Brooks Judson Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,970 | 25,254 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-20 | Brooks Judson Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,307 | 12,458 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-20 | Baugnon Robert G | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,025 | 22,233 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.