Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.85 · now $6.85 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RNW has typically landed between $5.64 and $8.10 — a range of −17.6% to +18.2% from the issuance price $6.85.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,392 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-02-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.85) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RNW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.85 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $6.85 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.83 (-0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $6.35–$7.3
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.64–$8.1
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-12-22 | −32.7% | −32.7% | +0.0% |
| 2021-12-23 | −32.4% | −32.4% | +0.0% |
| 2021-12-27 | −31.9% | −31.9% | +2.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-01-26 | +51.3% | +0.0% | +55.7% |
| 2022-01-25 | +50.5% | −3.4% | +50.5% |
| 2022-01-27 | +45.0% | +0.0% | +47.7% |
1,392 overlapping windows · 2021-02-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
19 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Varghese Sanjay Chacko | officer | Award / grant | 22,988 | 95,153 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | Vaswani Kailash | officer | Award / grant | 25,862 | 144,818 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | Sinha Sumant | director | Award / grant | 248,040 | 248,040 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | Sinha Sumant | director | Award / grant | 400,000 | 1,200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | Sinha Sumant | director | Award / grant | 248,040 | 248,040 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | Sinha Sumant | director | Award / grant | 400,000 | 1,200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | Sinha Sumant | director | Award / grant | 248,040 | 248,040 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | Sinha Sumant | director | Award / grant | 400,000 | 1,200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | Sinha Sumant | director | Award / grant | 22,988 | 22,988 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | Sinha Sumant | director | Award / grant | 22,988 | 22,988 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | Sinha Sumant | director | Award / grant | 22,988 | 22,988 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | New Philip Graham | director | Award / grant | 25,959 | 103,863 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Narayanan Vanitha | director | Award / grant | 25,959 | 141,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Gold-Williams Paula Yvette | director | Award / grant | 25,959 | 103,863 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Chakrabarti Sumantra | director | Award / grant | 25,959 | 141,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Singh Manoj P | director | Award / grant | 25,959 | 141,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Vaswani Kailash | officer | Award / grant | 35,077 | 118,956 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sinha Sumant | director | Award / grant | 148,923 | 148,923 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sinha Sumant | director | Award / grant | 148,923 | 148,923 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.