Issued 2026-09-16 at $228.25 · now $228.25 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RMD has typically landed between $200.84 and $258.43 — a range of −12.0% to +13.2% from the issuance price $228.25.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($228.25) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RMD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $228.25 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $228.25 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $228.51 (+0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $217.31–$239.7
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $200.84–$258.43
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-20 | −35.0% | −35.0% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-26 | −33.8% | −33.8% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −31.0% | −31.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-20 | +37.6% | +0.0% | +44.4% |
| 2020-03-23 | +32.6% | +0.0% | +36.1% |
| 2024-04-17 | +26.8% | +0.0% | +27.2% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$295.68
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$283.73
- Analyst target · range $220.00–$300.00$234.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$228.25
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Sale | 4,991 @ $222.44 | $1.1M | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 466,256 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | FARRELL PETER C | director | Sale | 970 @ $234.73 | $228K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 51,803 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Sale | 4,991 @ $205.69 | $1.0M | −1.1% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 466,256 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | FARRELL PETER C | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $225.00 | $1.8M | −13.2% of holding | +1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,773 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Sale | 4,991 @ $218.55 | $1.1M | −1.1% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 466,223 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Sale | 4,991 @ $193.96 | $968K | −1.1% of holding | +6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 466,256 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Sale | 4,991 @ $207.82 | $1.0M | −1.1% of holding | −7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 466,223 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Sale | 4,991 @ $225.50 | $1.1M | −1.1% of holding | −18.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 466,223 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | FARRELL PETER C | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $225.00 | $450K | −3.2% of holding | −18.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 60,773 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Sandercock Brett | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $224.31 | $224K | −1.2% of holding | −18.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,495 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Sale | 4,991 @ $251.03 | $1.3M | −1.1% of holding | −8.7% | −25.9% | 466,223 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | FARRELL PETER C | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $260.22 | $520K | −3.1% of holding | −9.5% | −22.9% | 62,773 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Sandercock Brett | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $254.30 | $254K | −1.2% of holding | −7.8% | −18.8% | 84,495 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Sale | 4,991 @ $273.78 | $1.4M | −1.1% of holding | −10.2% | −29.7% | 466,223 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | FARRELL PETER C | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $251.31 | $503K | −3.0% of holding | −1.6% | −27.3% | 64,773 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Rider Michael J | officer | Sale | 50 @ $260.00 | $13K | −0.5% of holding | −1.6% | −27.3% | 9,691 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Sandercock Brett | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $257.03 | $257K | −1.2% of holding | +3.4% | −23.4% | 85,495 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Sale | 4,991 @ $248.46 | $1.2M | −1.1% of holding | +9.3% | −27.5% | 466,223 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | FARRELL PETER C | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $248.83 | $498K | −2.9% of holding | +9.3% | −27.5% | 66,773 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Sandercock Brett | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $241.75 | $242K | −1.1% of holding | +1.8% | −19.8% | 86,495 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Rider Michael J | officer | Sale | 50 @ $241.75 | $12K | −0.5% of holding | +1.8% | −19.8% | 9,741 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Sale | 4,991 @ $251.41 | $1.3M | −1.1% of holding | −0.8% | −28.9% | 466,223 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | FARRELL PETER C | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $251.47 | $503K | −2.8% of holding | −3.3% | −30.1% | 68,773 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Sandercock Brett | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $244.16 | $244K | −1.1% of holding | −3.6% | −36.0% | 87,495 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Rider Michael J | officer | Sale | 50 @ $244.16 | $12K | −0.5% of holding | −3.6% | −36.0% | 9,791 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | De Witte Jan | director | Sale | 2,055 @ $255.00 | $524K | −32.5% of holding | −6.9% | −37.8% | 4,261 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | FARRELL PETER C | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $252.05 | $504K | −2.9% of holding | +0.2% | −28.3% | 66,110 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | De Witte Jan | director | Sale | 487 @ $250.25 | $122K | −8.4% of holding | −0.7% | −29.3% | 5,319 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Sale | 8,011 @ $249.75 | $2.0M | −1.7% of holding | −3.5% | −29.2% | 467,866 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Sandercock Brett | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $247.54 | $743K | −3.4% of holding | +1.2% | −23.4% | 85,745 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-07 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Sale | 8,009 @ $282.85 | $2.3M | −1.7% of holding | −14.7% | −21.3% | 467,792 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Sandercock Brett | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $274.36 | $823K | −3.3% of holding | −8.6% | −15.5% | 86,745 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Rider Michael J | officer | Sale | 100 @ $274.36 | $27K | −0.9% of holding | −8.6% | −15.5% | 11,327 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Sale | 8,009 @ $278.14 | $2.2M | −1.7% of holding | −2.0% | −16.1% | 467,792 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Sandercock Brett | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $270.77 | $812K | −3.3% of holding | −4.7% | −11.6% | 87,745 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Hernandez John | director | Sale | 2,575 @ $287.10 | $739K | −38.9% of holding | −7.5% | −16.4% | 4,045 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Sale | 8,009 @ $279.48 | $2.2M | −1.7% of holding | −2.7% | −12.5% | 455,503 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Sandercock Brett | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $281.90 | $846K | −3.5% of holding | −5.7% | −20.9% | 83,283 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Rider Michael J | officer | Sale | 50 @ $281.90 | $14K | −0.6% of holding | −5.7% | −20.9% | 8,486 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-07 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Sale | 8,009 @ $256.72 | $2.1M | −1.7% of holding | +10.0% | −15.3% | 455,503 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-02 | FARRELL PETER C | director | Sale | 945 @ $255.49 | $241K | −1.4% of holding | +8.9% | −16.0% | 68,273 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Sandercock Brett | officer | Sale | 3,883 @ $256.99 | $998K | −4.4% of holding | +3.8% | −16.6% | 84,283 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Rider Michael J | officer | Sale | 66 @ $256.99 | $17K | −0.8% of holding | +3.8% | −16.6% | 8,536 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Sale | 8,009 @ $251.21 | $2.0M | −1.7% of holding | −1.8% | −14.6% | 455,503 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-04 | FARRELL PETER C | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $247.32 | $495K | −2.8% of holding | −1.9% | −14.4% | 69,218 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Sandercock Brett | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $243.78 | $244K | −1.2% of holding | −0.1% | −13.2% | 85,283 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Rider Michael J | officer | Sale | 41 @ $243.78 | $10K | −0.5% of holding | −0.1% | −13.2% | 8,870 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Sandercock Brett | officer | Sale | 3,644 @ $244.59 | $891K | −4.1% of holding | −0.1% | −12.7% | 86,283 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | De Witte Jan | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $243.47 | $487K | −25.6% of holding | +1.7% | −12.3% | 5,806 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-07 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Sale | 8,009 @ $243.23 | $1.9M | −1.7% of holding | −3.5% | −20.8% | 455,503 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-07 | FARRELL PETER C | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $242.25 | $485K | −2.7% of holding | −3.5% | −20.8% | 71,218 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-08 | Sandercock Brett | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $215.58 | $216K | −1.1% of holding | +5.3% | +2.3% | 89,864 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-07 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Sale | 8,009 @ $209.85 | $1.7M | −1.7% of holding | +3.6% | +0.1% | 455,472 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-02 | FARRELL PETER C | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $219.74 | $439K | −2.7% of holding | +7.2% | +5.4% | 73,218 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Rider Michael J | officer | Sale | 64 @ $222.86 | $14K | −0.7% of holding | +6.8% | +2.5% | 8,846 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Ghoshal Kaushik | director | Sale | 9,745 @ $239.31 | $2.3M | −50.1% of holding | −2.4% | +1.8% | 9,725 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Sandercock Brett | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $230.36 | $230K | −1.1% of holding | −2.4% | +1.8% | 90,864 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Sale | 8,009 @ $229.20 | $1.8M | −1.7% of holding | +3.8% | +7.4% | 455,472 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | FARRELL PETER C | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $227.71 | $455K | −2.6% of holding | +3.0% | +10.8% | 75,218 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Ghoshal Kaushik | director | Sale | 4,726 @ $235.43 | $1.1M | −32.7% of holding | −1.0% | +6.4% | 9,725 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
109 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Option exercise | 4,991 | 471,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Option exercise | 4,991 | 9,984 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Option exercise | 4,991 | 471,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Option exercise | 4,991 | 14,975 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Option exercise | 4,991 | 471,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Option exercise | 4,991 | 19,966 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Option exercise | 4,991 | 471,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Option exercise | 4,991 | 24,957 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Rider Michael J | officer | Withheld for tax | 269 | 9,488 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Option exercise | 4,991 | 471,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Option exercise | 4,991 | 29,948 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Option exercise | 4,991 | 471,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Option exercise | 4,991 | 34,939 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Option exercise | 4,991 | 471,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Option exercise | 4,991 | 39,930 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Option exercise | 4,991 | 471,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Option exercise | 4,991 | 44,921 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Option exercise | 4,991 | 471,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Option exercise | 4,991 | 49,912 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Option exercise | 4,991 | 471,214 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Option exercise | 4,991 | 54,903 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-24 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Award / grant | 33,288 | 33,288 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-24 | Mowad-Nassar Nicole | director | Award / grant | 1,331 | 1,331 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-24 | FARRELL PETER C | director | Award / grant | 1,331 | 1,331 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Burt Carol | director | Award / grant | 1,073 | 2,156 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | FARRELL PETER C | director | Award / grant | 536 | 70,773 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | De Witte Jan | director | Award / grant | 1,073 | 6,316 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | DelOrefice Christopher | director | Award / grant | 1,073 | 2,423 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Drexler Karen | director | Award / grant | 1,073 | 10,602 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | TAYLOR RONALD R | director | Award / grant | 1,073 | 24,771 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Tan Desney | director | Award / grant | 1,073 | 6,002 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Award / grant | 13,551 | 473,520 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Farrell Michael J. | director | Withheld for tax | 7,297 | 466,223 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Sandercock Brett | officer | Award / grant | 2,710 | 88,495 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Gill Harjit | director | Award / grant | 1,073 | 10,940 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Hernandez John | director | Award / grant | 1,073 | 5,118 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Leong Justin | officer | Award / grant | 1,848 | 29,028 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Mowad-Nassar Nicole | director | Award / grant | 536 | 777 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | FARRELL PETER C | director | Withheld for tax | 7,314 | 70,238 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | FARRELL PETER C | director | Option exercise | 11,442 | 77,552 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Kelly Louise Morrison | House | sale | 2025-06-18 | 2025-06-04 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.