Issued 2026-09-16 at $81.41 · now $81.41 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RMBS has typically landed between $65.21 and $104.70 — a range of −19.9% to +28.6% from the issuance price $81.41.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($81.41) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RMBS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $81.41 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $81.41 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $83.19 (+2.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $75.33–$91.04
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $65.21–$104.7
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,002 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2011-11-14 | −59.7% | −59.8% | +1.7% |
| 2011-11-15 | −59.7% | −60.5% | +0.0% |
| 2011-11-11 | −59.7% | −60.1% | +1.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-20 | +183.8% | +0.0% | +209.2% |
| 2008-11-24 | +165.0% | +0.0% | +173.0% |
| 2008-11-19 | +156.9% | −16.9% | +156.9% |
5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
55%
+0.6%
n=20
Feb
60%
+0.1%
n=20
Mar
60%
+3.0%
n=20
Apr
50%
+1.8%
n=20
May
60%
+4.4%
n=20
Jun
50%
+2.1%
n=20
Jul
40%
−2.7%
n=20
Aug
55%
−1.5%
n=20
Sep
50%
+3.5%
n=20
Oct
40%
−1.6%
n=20
Nov
75%
+6.0%
n=20
Dec
50%
+3.9%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | KISSNER CHARLES | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $100.92 | $505K | −26.7% of holding | −13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,747 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Sayiner Necip | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $170.15 | $851K | −21.5% of holding | −33.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,223 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-02 | Higashi Emiko | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $163.00 | $815K | −8.4% of holding | −30.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,519 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Higashi Emiko | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $158.00 | $790K | −9.2% of holding | −30.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,519 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | STANG ERIC B | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $146.00 | $730K | −20.6% of holding | −14.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,218 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | FAN XIANZHI SEAN | officer | Sale | 37,814 @ $151.69 | $5.7M | −18.3% of holding | −19.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 168,458 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-26 | Higashi Emiko | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $157.57 | $788K | −7.7% of holding | −19.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 59,519 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | FAN XIANZHI SEAN | officer | Sale | 100 @ $152.35 | $15K | −0.1% of holding | −19.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 168,358 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-22 | Shinn John | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $143.63 | $144K | −4.5% of holding | −11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,112 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Sayiner Necip | director | Sale | 9,824 @ $130.18 | $1.3M | −29.7% of holding | +13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,223 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | LAUB STEVEN | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $125.52 | $188K | −16.6% of holding | +19.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,519 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Rao Meera | director | Sale | 2,972 @ $150.30 | $447K | −13.0% of holding | −5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,974 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | Rao Meera | director | Sale | 8,538 @ $118.08 | $1.0M | −27.1% of holding | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,946 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Seraphin Luc | director | Sale | 2,750 @ $87.11 | $240K | −0.8% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 345,932 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Seraphin Luc | director | Sale | 2,511 @ $86.04 | $216K | −0.7% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 348,682 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Seraphin Luc | director | Sale | 165 @ $88.35 | $15K | −0.0% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 345,767 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Shinn John | officer | Sale | 4,356 @ $88.64 | $386K | −18.9% of holding | +17.1% | −15.4% | 18,667 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Shinn John | officer | Sale | 200 @ $89.55 | $18K | −1.1% of holding | +17.1% | −15.4% | 18,467 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Shinn John | officer | Sale | 2,254 @ $92.77 | $209K | −8.2% of holding | +6.1% | −16.2% | 25,326 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Shinn John | officer | Sale | 1,603 @ $94.07 | $151K | −6.3% of holding | +6.1% | −16.2% | 23,723 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Shinn John | officer | Sale | 700 @ $94.89 | $66K | −3.0% of holding | +6.1% | −16.2% | 23,023 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Seraphin Luc | director | Sale | 13,654 @ $98.22 | $1.3M | −3.8% of holding | −8.0% | −24.7% | 348,426 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Seraphin Luc | director | Sale | 9,469 @ $99.17 | $939K | −2.7% of holding | −8.0% | −24.7% | 338,957 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Seraphin Luc | director | Sale | 7,225 @ $97.38 | $704K | −2.0% of holding | −8.0% | −24.7% | 362,080 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Seraphin Luc | director | Sale | 6,587 @ $100.20 | $660K | −1.9% of holding | −8.0% | −24.7% | 332,370 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Seraphin Luc | director | Sale | 1,679 @ $95.83 | $161K | −0.5% of holding | −8.0% | −24.7% | 369,305 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Seraphin Luc | director | Sale | 1,300 @ $101.65 | $132K | −0.4% of holding | −8.0% | −24.7% | 331,070 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Lynch Desmond | officer | Sale | 4,273 @ $101.53 | $434K | −6.3% of holding | +1.3% | −21.1% | 63,618 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | STANG ERIC B | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $111.78 | $447K | −16.4% of holding | −4.3% | +12.4% | 20,394 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | STANG ERIC B | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $102.35 | $512K | −17.0% of holding | −4.5% | +10.4% | 24,394 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | Lynch Desmond | officer | Sale | 5,467 @ $101.17 | $553K | −8.5% of holding | −1.2% | −0.8% | 58,963 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-06 | Lynch Desmond | officer | Sale | 3,607 @ $101.99 | $368K | −6.1% of holding | −1.2% | −0.8% | 55,356 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-01 | Rao Meera | director | Sale | 653 @ $101.99 | $67K | −2.2% of holding | +2.8% | −8.5% | 29,261 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Lynch Desmond | officer | Sale | 9,074 @ $91.70 | $832K | −12.3% of holding | −0.5% | −3.5% | 64,430 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Sayiner Necip | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $85.63 | $642K | −19.6% of holding | +1.5% | +4.8% | 30,824 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Rao Meera | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $71.72 | $215K | −9.1% of holding | +35.7% | +17.6% | 29,914 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | LAUB STEVEN | director | Sale | 2,261 @ $78.72 | $178K | −25.0% of holding | +37.7% | +12.7% | 6,796 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Higashi Emiko | director | Sale | 1,075 @ $77.75 | $84K | −1.7% of holding | +10.1% | +18.5% | 62,296 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Sayiner Necip | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $73.53 | $551K | −16.4% of holding | +0.3% | +42.7% | 38,324 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Higashi Emiko | director | Sale | 1,111 @ $75.00 | $83K | −1.7% of holding | −4.7% | +20.1% | 63,371 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Shinn John | officer | Sale | 790 @ $74.61 | $59K | −3.8% of holding | −4.7% | +20.1% | 20,188 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | LAUB STEVEN | director | Sale | 1,847 @ $55.13 | $102K | −16.9% of holding | +9.7% | +54.7% | 9,057 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | LAUB STEVEN | director | Sale | 3,653 @ $55.56 | $203K | −25.1% of holding | +8.1% | +50.7% | 10,904 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | STANG ERIC B | director | Sale | 3,653 @ $51.13 | $187K | −11.1% of holding | +10.1% | +91.5% | 29,394 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Lynch Desmond | officer | Sale | 3,118 @ $50.31 | $157K | −4.0% of holding | +6.9% | +86.6% | 75,798 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-23 | Seraphin Luc | director | Sale | 6,348 @ $46.97 | $298K | −1.9% of holding | +9.8% | +80.2% | 319,241 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-22 | Seraphin Luc | director | Sale | 1,255 @ $45.00 | $56K | −0.4% of holding | +12.8% | +92.2% | 325,589 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-15 | Seraphin Luc | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $47.79 | $478K | −3.0% of holding | +9.8% | +80.4% | 326,844 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-08 | Seraphin Luc | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $46.81 | $468K | −2.9% of holding | +6.5% | +95.4% | 336,844 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-01 | Seraphin Luc | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $50.88 | $509K | −2.8% of holding | −6.1% | +77.4% | 346,844 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-25 | Seraphin Luc | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $58.64 | $586K | −3.2% of holding | −11.3% | +55.4% | 306,931 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-21 | Shinn John | officer | Sale | 7,632 @ $55.73 | $425K | −36.7% of holding | −15.4% | +69.6% | 13,190 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-18 | Seraphin Luc | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $53.79 | $538K | −3.1% of holding | −9.5% | +61.3% | 316,931 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Shinn John | officer | Sale | 7,633 @ $52.98 | $404K | −26.8% of holding | −9.3% | +56.2% | 20,822 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Lynch Desmond | officer | Sale | 3,743 @ $53.27 | $199K | −5.6% of holding | −9.3% | +56.2% | 62,578 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-19 | FAN XIANZHI SEAN | officer | Sale | 52,327 @ $68.02 | $3.6M | −35.8% of holding | −6.6% | +0.3% | 93,841 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-19 | Sayiner Necip | director | Sale | 4,625 @ $66.74 | $309K | −9.9% of holding | −6.6% | +0.3% | 42,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-12 | Rao Meera | director | Sale | 5,408 @ $58.22 | $315K | −15.7% of holding | +3.0% | +3.7% | 29,090 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-12 | Shinn John | officer | Sale | 2,462 @ $58.13 | $143K | −10.7% of holding | +3.0% | +3.7% | 20,628 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
56 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Gagneja Sumeet | officer | Award / grant | 14,518 | 14,518 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Gagneja Sumeet | officer | Award / grant | 26,802 | 41,320 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Allen John K | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,131 | 17,131 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Seraphin Luc | director | Withheld for tax | 12,561 | 351,193 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | FAN XIANZHI SEAN | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,916 | 206,272 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Shinn John | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,913 | 22,112 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Allen John K | officer | Withheld for tax | 658 | 18,262 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Allen John K | officer | Withheld for tax | 495 | 18,920 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | STANG ERIC B | director | Award / grant | 2,223 | 2,223 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | FAN XIANZHI SEAN | officer | Award / grant | 22,234 | 216,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | PENG VICTOR | director | Award / grant | 2,223 | 2,391 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Seraphin Luc | director | Award / grant | 32,684 | 363,754 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Shinn John | officer | Award / grant | 5,558 | 24,025 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Rao Meera | director | Award / grant | 2,223 | 31,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Higashi Emiko | director | Award / grant | 2,223 | 64,519 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | KISSNER CHARLES | director | Award / grant | 2,223 | 40,545 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Allen John K | officer | Award / grant | 2,779 | 19,415 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sayiner Necip | director | Award / grant | 2,223 | 33,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | LAUB STEVEN | director | Award / grant | 2,223 | 9,019 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | PENG VICTOR | director | Award / grant | 168 | 168 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | Seraphin Luc | director | Withheld for tax | 92,523 | 370,984 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | FAN XIANZHI SEAN | officer | Withheld for tax | 92,403 | 193,954 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | Lynch Desmond | officer | Withheld for tax | 22,105 | 67,891 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | Shinn John | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,884 | 27,580 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | FAN XIANZHI SEAN | officer | Award / grant | 148,802 | 286,357 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | Lynch Desmond | officer | Award / grant | 34,554 | 89,996 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | Shinn John | officer | Award / grant | 17,276 | 37,464 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | Seraphin Luc | director | Award / grant | 143,744 | 463,507 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | FAN XIANZHI SEAN | officer | Gift | 300 | 137,555 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-19 | FAN XIANZHI SEAN | officer | Gift | 300 | 137,855 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-01 | Lynch Desmond | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,725 | 73,504 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-03 | Allen John K | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,129 | 16,090 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Seraphin Luc | director | Withheld for tax | 5,164 | 356,844 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | FAN XIANZHI SEAN | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,496 | 138,155 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Lynch Desmond | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,829 | 78,916 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Shinn John | officer | Withheld for tax | 817 | 20,978 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Allen John K | officer | Withheld for tax | 490 | 17,219 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Sayiner Necip | director | Award / grant | 3,824 | 45,824 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Seraphin Luc | director | Award / grant | 55,077 | 362,008 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | FAN XIANZHI SEAN | officer | Award / grant | 47,810 | 141,651 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.