RLYB · TickerCove

RLYBRallybio CorporationHealthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $17.09 · now $17.09 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RLYB has typically landed between $10.55 and $24.84 — a range of −38.3% to +45.4% from the issuance price $17.09.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,267 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-07-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($17.09) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$17.09 · 99% of range

$3.99 low$17.22 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.5%

typical move · IQR 30.7%

−38.3%worst (p90)+45.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where RLYB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $17.09 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $17.09 (+0.0%)
typical $16.83 (-1.5%)
middle 50% $14.21–$19.45
90% range $10.55–$24.84

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,267 windows spanning 2021-07-29 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2025-03-18	−65.8%	−66.0%	+0.0%
2025-03-19	−65.7%	−65.7%	+0.0%
2025-03-11	−63.1%	−63.1%	+8.5%
3 best
2026-02-04	+137.2%	−5.9%	+138.5%
2026-02-05	+131.6%	−6.9%	+135.9%
2026-02-17	+116.2%	+0.0%	+153.3%

1,267 overlapping windows · 2021-07-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

−5.4%

n=5

Feb

60%

+21.4%

n=5

Mar

20%

−15.0%

n=5

Apr

60%

−2.0%

n=5

May

60%

+22.8%

n=5

Jun

40%

−13.0%

n=5

Jul

80%

+14.1%

n=5

Aug

50%

−2.0%

n=6

Sep

67%

+4.1%

n=6

Oct

60%

+4.0%

n=5

Nov

20%

−23.0%

n=5

Dec

60%

+0.1%

n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-19	ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	10,000 @ $13.98	$140K	+1.1% of holding	+10.5%	not yet — horizon still open	926,152	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-19	ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	200 @ $13.80	$3K	+0.0% of holding	+10.5%	not yet — horizon still open	926,352	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-18	ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	6,009 @ $13.98	$84K	+0.7% of holding	+12.6%	not yet — horizon still open	916,152	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-15	ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	200 @ $13.95	$3K	+0.0% of holding	+9.7%	not yet — horizon still open	910,143	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-15	ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	100 @ $13.80	$1K	+0.0% of holding	+9.7%	not yet — horizon still open	909,943	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-13	ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	75,178 @ $14.00	$1.1M	+9.0% of holding	+11.0%	not yet — horizon still open	909,843	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-13	ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	4,081 @ $13.80	$56K	+0.5% of holding	+11.0%	not yet — horizon still open	834,665	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-12	ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	800 @ $13.83	$11K	+0.1% of holding	+13.5%	not yet — horizon still open	830,584	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-11	ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	25,000 @ $14.00	$350K	+3.2% of holding	+15.7%	not yet — horizon still open	809,884	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-11	ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	19,900 @ $14.00	$279K	+2.5% of holding	+15.7%	not yet — horizon still open	829,784	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-11	ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	5,100 @ $14.00	$71K	+0.7% of holding	+15.7%	not yet — horizon still open	784,884	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-05	ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	35,101 @ $14.00	$491K	+4.7% of holding	+8.8%	not yet — horizon still open	779,784	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-04	ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	116,904 @ $13.97	$1.6M	+18.6% of holding	+8.8%	not yet — horizon still open	744,683	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-04	ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	3,900 @ $13.90	$54K	+0.6% of holding	+8.8%	not yet — horizon still open	627,779	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23	Lieber Jonathan I	director	Sale	789 @ $5.06	$4K	−16.1% of holding	+61.7%	+193.0%	4,115	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

20 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-06	Boudreau Helen M	director	Option exercise	3,562	6,542	Form 4
2026-07-06	Boudreau Helen M	director	Option exercise	3,562	0	Form 4
2026-02-18	MACKAY MARTIN	director	Award / grant	18,055	18,055	Form 4
2026-02-18	HUNT RONALD	director	Award / grant	14,305	14,305	Form 4
2026-02-18	Lieber Jonathan I	director	Award / grant	2,500	4,904	Form 4
2025-05-13	Boudreau Helen M	director	Award / grant	28,500	28,500	Form 4
2025-05-13	Chung Wendy	director	Award / grant	28,500	28,500	Form 4
2025-05-13	HUNT RONALD	director	Award / grant	28,500	28,500	Form 4
2025-05-13	Hopfner Robert Lorne	director	Award / grant	28,500	28,500	Form 4
2025-05-13	Liu Hui	director	Award / grant	28,500	28,500	Form 4
2025-05-13	MACKAY MARTIN	director	Award / grant	28,500	28,500	Form 4
2025-05-13	Nash Christine A	director	Award / grant	28,500	28,500	Form 4
2025-05-13	Soteropoulos Paula	director	Award / grant	28,500	28,500	Form 4
2025-02-14	Lieber Jonathan I	director	Award / grant	180,000	180,000	Form 4
2025-02-14	Uden Stephen	director	Award / grant	453,700	453,700	Form 4
2025-02-14	Ryder Steven	director	Award / grant	180,000	180,000	Form 4
2025-01-02	MACKAY MARTIN	director	Award / grant	92,857	92,857	Form 4
2025-01-02	Hopfner Robert Lorne	director	Award / grant	73,571	73,571	Form 4
2025-01-02	HUNT RONALD	director	Award / grant	73,571	73,571	Form 4
2025-01-02	Liu Hui	director	Award / grant	67,857	67,857	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i