RLJRLJ Lodging TrustReal Estate · REIT - Hotel & Motelas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.83 · now $10.83 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RLJ has typically landed between $9.41 and $12.26 — a range of −13.1% to +13.2% from the issuance price $10.83.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,839 overlapping 1 month windows · 2011-05-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.83) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where RLJ has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.83 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$9.41worst · -13.1%$12.26best · +13.2%
  • now $10.83 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.82 (-0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10.24–$11.39
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.41–$12.26
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,839 windows spanning 2011-05-11 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−73.5%−73.5%+0.0%
2020-02-20−71.0%−73.4%+0.0%
2020-02-21−70.9%−73.4%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+92.8%+0.0%+104.9%
2020-05-07+78.8%−9.5%+78.8%
2020-03-20+68.1%+0.0%+88.0%

3,839 overlapping windows · 2011-05-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~16 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
47%
+0.5%
n=15
Feb
53%
−0.0%
n=15
Mar
47%
−2.4%
n=15
Apr
47%
+0.3%
n=15
May
53%
+1.0%
n=15
Jun
44%
+0.3%
n=16
Jul
56%
+0.9%
n=16
Aug
38%
−2.2%
n=16
Sep
38%
−1.4%
n=16
Oct
27%
+0.4%
n=15
Nov
73%
+7.3%
n=15
Dec
80%
+2.1%
n=15

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$12$62025-11-21: 1 insider sale, $101K — Zeigler Robin McBride2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $101K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Zeigler Robin McBride — Sale on 2025-11-21, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-11-21Zeigler Robin McBridedirectorSale13,413 @ $7.51$101K−26.5% of holding−3.0%+23.0%37,159Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-28Gibson Patricia LdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $8.03$80K+8.8% of holding−10.6%−24.7%124,217Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-07Gibson Patricia LdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $9.38$94K+9.6% of holding−17.1%−29.1%114,217Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

76 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-06Gormsen Christopher AndrewofficerAward / grant98,814330,231Form 4
2026-05-06Collins Arthur ReginalddirectorAward / grant16,14977,136Form 4
2026-05-06Zeigler Robin McBridedirectorAward / grant16,14953,308Form 4
2026-05-06Bayh EvandirectorAward / grant16,149132,109Form 4
2026-05-06DAVIS NATHANIEL AdirectorAward / grant16,14989,801Form 4
2026-05-06Gibson Patricia LdirectorAward / grant16,149158,884Form 4
2026-05-06MCCARTHY ROBERTdirectorAward / grant16,14997,456Form 4
2026-05-06LA FORGIA ROBERT MdirectorAward / grant16,149143,995Form 4
2026-04-27McKalip Frederick D.officerWithheld for tax445278,820Form 4
2026-04-26McKalip Frederick D.officerWithheld for tax395279,265Form 4
2026-04-25McKalip Frederick D.officerWithheld for tax644279,660Form 4
2026-03-18Hale Leslie D.directorWithheld for tax133,5302,170,936Form 4
2026-03-18JOHNSON ROBERT LdirectorWithheld for tax22,4951,586,626Form 4
2026-03-18Bardenett ThomasofficerWithheld for tax19,080502,674Form 4
2026-03-18Bhalla NikhilofficerWithheld for tax8,132201,504Form 4
2026-03-18Gormsen Christopher AndrewofficerWithheld for tax7,821231,417Form 4
2026-03-18Gormsen Christopher AndrewofficerAward / grant15,599239,238Form 4
2026-03-18JOHNSON ROBERT LdirectorAward / grant40,5591,609,121Form 4
2026-03-18Hale Leslie D.directorAward / grant163,0522,304,466Form 4
2026-03-18Bardenett ThomasofficerAward / grant34,319521,754Form 4
2026-03-18Bhalla NikhilofficerAward / grant14,039209,636Form 4
2026-02-20Hale Leslie D.directorAward / grant385,7832,141,414Form 4
2026-02-20Bardenett ThomasofficerAward / grant103,280487,435Form 4
2026-02-20JOHNSON ROBERT LdirectorAward / grant92,9521,568,562Form 4
2026-02-20McKalip Frederick D.officerAward / grant57,715280,304Form 4
2026-02-20Bhalla NikhilofficerAward / grant51,640195,597Form 4
2026-02-20Gormsen Christopher AndrewofficerAward / grant36,452223,639Form 4
2026-02-17Hale Leslie D.directorWithheld for tax37,1391,755,631Form 4
2026-02-17JOHNSON ROBERT LdirectorWithheld for tax6,3701,475,610Form 4
2026-02-17Bardenett ThomasofficerWithheld for tax5,315384,155Form 4
2026-02-17Gormsen Christopher AndrewofficerWithheld for tax2,605187,187Form 4
2026-02-17Bhalla NikhilofficerWithheld for tax2,556143,957Form 4
2026-02-16Hale Leslie D.directorWithheld for tax28,5011,792,770Form 4
2026-02-16JOHNSON ROBERT LdirectorWithheld for tax7,5231,481,980Form 4
2026-02-16Bardenett ThomasofficerWithheld for tax7,283389,470Form 4
2026-02-16Bhalla NikhilofficerWithheld for tax3,162146,513Form 4
2026-02-16Gormsen Christopher AndrewofficerWithheld for tax2,774189,792Form 4
2025-04-27Perry ChaddirectorWithheld for tax32,565150,576Form 4
2025-04-25MCCARTHY ROBERTdirectorAward / grant18,51881,307Form 4
2025-04-25Collins Arthur ReginalddirectorAward / grant18,51860,987Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.