RLIRLI Corp.Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualtyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $60.54 · now $60.54 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RLI has typically landed between $55.25 and $66.65 — a range of −8.7% to +10.1% from the issuance price $60.54.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($60.54) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where RLI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $60.54 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$55.25worst · -8.7%$66.65best · +10.1%
  • now $60.54 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $60.98 (+0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $58.44–$63.51
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $55.25–$66.65
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-13−28.2%−28.2%+0.0%
2020-02-11−27.7%−27.7%+0.0%
2008-09-26−24.9%−26.9%+0.0%
3 best
2022-10-03+28.6%−1.4%+28.6%
2022-10-07+27.7%+0.0%+30.5%
2022-09-30+27.1%−0.4%+27.1%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
30%
−3.1%
n=20
Feb
65%
+1.0%
n=20
Mar
80%
+2.9%
n=20
Apr
30%
−1.9%
n=20
May
60%
+1.3%
n=20
Jun
50%
+1.1%
n=20
Jul
70%
+3.2%
n=20
Aug
70%
+1.0%
n=20
Sep
60%
+0.5%
n=20
Oct
70%
+2.9%
n=20
Nov
85%
+4.4%
n=20
Dec
70%
+1.6%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$67$462026-06-01: 1 insider purchase, $153K — KELLOGG CLARK C2026-05-28: 1 insider purchase, $130K — Duclos David B.2026-05-27: 2 insider purchases, $209K — Klobnak Jennifer L, Kliethermes Craig W2026-05-21: 1 insider purchase, $260K — Kliethermes Craig W2026-05-19: 1 insider purchase, $107K — Klobnak Jennifer L2026-01-23: 2 insider purchases, $403K — Kliethermes Craig W, Klobnak Jennifer L2026-01: 2 open-market purchases, $403K2026-05: 5 open-market purchases, $706K2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $153K↑ buys↓ salesdirector KELLOGG CLARK C — Purchase on 2026-06-01, filed same daydirector Duclos David B. — Purchase on 2026-05-28, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Klobnak Jennifer L — Purchase on 2026-05-27, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Kliethermes Craig W — Purchase on 2026-05-27, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Kliethermes Craig W — Purchase on 2026-05-21, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Klobnak Jennifer L — Purchase on 2026-05-19, filed same dayofficer Kliethermes Craig W — Purchase on 2026-01-23, filed same dayofficer Klobnak Jennifer L — Purchase on 2026-01-23, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-01KELLOGG CLARK CdirectorPurchase3,000 @ $50.90$153K+199.7% of holding+21.2%not yet — horizon still open4,502Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-28Duclos David B.directorPurchase2,500 @ $51.99$130K+34.3% of holding+20.0%not yet — horizon still open9,780Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-27Klobnak Jennifer LofficerPurchase2,000 @ $52.72$105K+2.0% of holding+18.1%not yet — horizon still open104,318Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-27Kliethermes Craig WofficerPurchase2,000 @ $52.00$104K+1.3% of holding+18.1%not yet — horizon still open150,990Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-21Kliethermes Craig WofficerPurchase5,000 @ $52.00$260K+3.5% of holding+7.0%not yet — horizon still open148,990Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-19Klobnak Jennifer LofficerPurchase2,000 @ $53.42$107K+2.0% of holding+4.3%not yet — horizon still open102,318Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-23Kliethermes Craig WofficerPurchase5,000 @ $57.45$287K+3.6% of holding+7.5%+9.9%143,990Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-23Klobnak Jennifer LofficerPurchase2,000 @ $57.99$116K+2.0% of holding+7.5%+9.9%100,318Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-24Klobnak Jennifer LofficerPurchase3,000 @ $69.15$207K+3.1% of holding−0.6%−22.1%98,450Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-13RESTREPO ROBERT P JRdirectorSale2,864 @ $74.89$214K−10.9% of holding+5.7%−29.6%23,312Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-11Graham Jordan WdirectorSale1,500 @ $74.77$112K−10.5% of holding+3.4%−28.6%12,854Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-29Duclos David B.directorPurchase2,000 @ $72.50$145K+38.4% of holding+6.8%−13.9%7,215Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-24Kliethermes Craig WofficerPurchase5,000 @ $71.35$357K+3.7% of holding+7.0%−13.1%139,190Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-01-24Angelina Michael EdirectorPurchase2,200 @ $72.62$160K+10.3% of holding+7.0%−13.1%23,514Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-01-24FICK JEFFREY DofficerPurchase2,000 @ $72.13$144K+1.4% of holding+7.0%−13.1%142,061Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-01-24Klobnak Jennifer LofficerPurchase2,000 @ $72.10$144K+2.1% of holding+7.0%−13.1%95,450Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-13STONE MICHAEL JdirectorSale300 @ $170.75$51K−0.1% of holding−7.1%−15.4%214,511Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-12STONE MICHAEL JdirectorSale200 @ $169.55$34K−0.1% of holding−7.5%−14.0%214,811Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

143 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-13Bradshaw James HendersondirectorAward / grant2,1532,153Form 4
2026-08-03Kliethermes Craig WofficerAward / grant22,50022,500Form 4
2026-08-03Davis Seth AnthonyofficerAward / grant1,5001,500Form 4
2026-08-03Klobnak Jennifer LofficerAward / grant12,50012,500Form 4
2026-08-03FICK JEFFREY DofficerAward / grant7,5007,500Form 4
2026-07-31MEDINI PAUL BENNETTdirectorOther acquisition4719,932Form 4
2026-07-31Roberts Debbie SharelldirectorOther acquisition40830,402Form 4
2026-05-14Diefenthaler Aaron PaulofficerAward / grant40,00040,000Form 4
2026-05-14FICK JEFFREY DofficerAward / grant7,5007,500Form 4
2026-05-14Kliethermes Craig WofficerAward / grant22,50022,500Form 4
2026-05-14Roberts Debbie SharelldirectorAward / grant2,5062,506Form 4
2026-05-14Angelina Michael EdirectorAward / grant2,5062,506Form 4
2026-05-14Duclos David B.directorAward / grant3,5083,508Form 4
2026-05-14Klobnak Jennifer LofficerAward / grant12,50012,500Form 4
2026-05-14KELLOGG CLARK CdirectorAward / grant2,5062,506Form 4
2026-05-14Graham Jordan WdirectorAward / grant2,5062,506Form 4
2026-05-14Fleming Susan S.directorAward / grant2,5062,506Form 4
2026-05-14RESTREPO ROBERT P JRdirectorAward / grant2,5062,506Form 4
2026-05-14MEDINI PAUL BENNETTdirectorAward / grant2,5062,506Form 4
2026-05-14Davis Seth AnthonyofficerAward / grant1,5001,500Form 4
2026-05-14STONE MICHAEL JdirectorAward / grant2,5062,506Form 4
2026-05-14Davis Seth AnthonyofficerAward / grant300300Form 4
2026-05-13RESTREPO ROBERT P JRdirectorOption exercise1,68126,433Form 4
2026-05-13RESTREPO ROBERT P JRdirectorOption exercise1,6810Form 4
2026-05-13KELLOGG CLARK CdirectorOption exercise1,6811,681Form 4
2026-05-13KELLOGG CLARK CdirectorOther acquisition681,749Form 4
2026-05-13KELLOGG CLARK CdirectorOption exercise1,6810Form 4
2026-05-13MEDINI PAUL BENNETTdirectorOption exercise1,6819,028Form 4
2026-05-13MEDINI PAUL BENNETTdirectorOther acquisition689,096Form 4
2026-05-13MEDINI PAUL BENNETTdirectorOption exercise1,6810Form 4
2026-05-13STONE MICHAEL JdirectorOption exercise1,681433,248Form 4
2026-05-13STONE MICHAEL JdirectorOther acquisition68433,316Form 4
2026-05-13STONE MICHAEL JdirectorOption exercise1,6810Form 4
2026-05-13Graham Jordan WdirectorOption exercise1,681118,108Form 4
2026-05-13Graham Jordan WdirectorOther acquisition68118,176Form 4
2026-05-13Graham Jordan WdirectorOption exercise1,6810Form 4
2026-05-13Angelina Michael EdirectorOption exercise1,68125,517Form 4
2026-05-13Angelina Michael EdirectorOther acquisition6825,585Form 4
2026-05-13Angelina Michael EdirectorOption exercise1,6810Form 4
2026-05-13Duclos David B.directorOption exercise2,35318,388Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.