Issued 2026-09-16 at $18.84 · now $18.84 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RLAY has typically landed between $13.70 and $26.43 — a range of −27.3% to +40.3% from the issuance price $18.84.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,529 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-07-16 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($18.84) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RLAY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $18.84 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $18.84 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $18.68 (-0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $15.88–$21.48
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $13.7–$26.43
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,529 windows spanning 2020-07-16 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-11 | −51.5% | −51.5% | +2.5% |
| 2022-04-12 | −49.7% | −51.1% | +3.3% |
| 2022-04-08 | −47.8% | −47.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-03-04 | +71.1% | +0.0% | +71.1% |
| 2026-03-20 | +69.5% | −5.7% | +69.5% |
| 2026-03-18 | +68.8% | −5.8% | +68.8% |
1,529 overlapping windows · 2020-07-16 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2028-04-30 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Phase 3 Study of RLY-2608 + Fulvestrant vs Capivasertib + Fulvestrant as Treatment for Locally Advanced or Metastatic PIK3CA-mutant HR+/HER2- Breast Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- July 2031 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Phase 2 Study of Mutant-selective PI3Kα Inhibitor, RLY-2608, in Adults and Children With PIK3CA Related Overgrowth Spectrum and Malformations Driven by PIK3CA Mutation (The ReInspire Study) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+3.0%
n=6
Feb
50%
−2.3%
n=6
Mar
33%
−5.6%
n=6
Apr
33%
−4.0%
n=6
May
33%
−5.9%
n=6
Jun
100%
+13.3%
n=6
Jul
83%
+5.2%
n=6
Aug
43%
−0.5%
n=7
Sep
57%
+5.2%
n=7
Oct
33%
−2.3%
n=6
Nov
50%
+5.1%
n=6
Dec
50%
−0.6%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Patel Sanjiv | director | Sale | 48,199 @ $18.94 | $913K | −8.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 519,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Sale | 17,717 @ $18.94 | $336K | −12.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 122,851 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Bergstrom Donald A | officer | Sale | 8,530 @ $18.97 | $162K | −2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 399,130 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Rahmer Peter | officer | Sale | 4,508 @ $20.03 | $90K | −2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 223,657 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | SVF Pauling (Cayman) Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 6,000,000 @ $19.40 | $116.4M | −21.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,904,963 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Patel Sanjiv | director | Sale | 48,199 @ $20.33 | $980K | −7.8% of holding | −6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 567,699 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Sale | 17,717 @ $19.74 | $350K | −11.2% of holding | −2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 140,568 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Bergstrom Donald A | officer | Sale | 2,237 @ $18.61 | $42K | −0.5% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 407,660 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Sale | 1,459 @ $18.61 | $27K | −0.9% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 158,285 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Rahmer Peter | officer | Sale | 748 @ $18.61 | $14K | −0.3% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 228,165 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Patel Sanjiv | director | Sale | 48,199 @ $19.58 | $944K | −7.3% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 615,898 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Sale | 17,717 @ $18.69 | $331K | −10.0% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 159,744 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Bergstrom Donald A | officer | Sale | 8,660 @ $18.71 | $162K | −2.1% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 409,897 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Rahmer Peter | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $19.09 | $955K | −18.1% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 225,857 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Bergstrom Donald A | officer | Sale | 93,456 @ $16.94 | $1.6M | −18.3% of holding | +11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 418,557 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Sale | 61,563 @ $16.97 | $1.0M | −25.8% of holding | +11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 177,461 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Sale | 56,323 @ $16.97 | $956K | −24.1% of holding | +11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 177,461 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Sale | 51,560 @ $16.97 | $875K | −22.5% of holding | +11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 177,461 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Sale | 17,717 @ $17.01 | $301K | −9.1% of holding | +11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 177,461 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Sale | 17,717 @ $12.86 | $228K | −8.3% of holding | +16.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 195,178 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-28 | Bergstrom Donald A | officer | Sale | 1,490 @ $14.79 | $22K | −0.4% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 418,557 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Sale | 972 @ $14.79 | $14K | −0.5% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 212,895 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Rahmer Peter | officer | Sale | 753 @ $14.79 | $11K | −0.3% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 275,857 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Sale | 1,800 @ $15.00 | $27K | −0.8% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 213,867 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-07 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Sale | 17,717 @ $13.01 | $230K | −7.7% of holding | −15.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 213,867 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Sale | 17,717 @ $10.06 | $178K | −7.1% of holding | +43.2% | +74.9% | 231,584 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-28 | Bergstrom Donald A | officer | Sale | 2,686 @ $8.45 | $23K | −0.6% of holding | +35.5% | +147.0% | 420,047 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-28 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Sale | 1,695 @ $8.45 | $14K | −0.7% of holding | +35.5% | +147.0% | 249,301 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-28 | Rahmer Peter | officer | Sale | 1,354 @ $8.45 | $11K | −0.5% of holding | +35.5% | +147.0% | 276,610 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-27 | Bergstrom Donald A | officer | Sale | 18,895 @ $7.62 | $144K | −4.3% of holding | +8.7% | +110.7% | 422,733 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-27 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Sale | 13,820 @ $7.62 | $105K | −5.2% of holding | +8.7% | +110.7% | 250,996 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-27 | Rahmer Peter | officer | Sale | 11,684 @ $7.62 | $89K | −4.0% of holding | +8.7% | +110.7% | 277,964 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Patel Sanjiv | director | Sale | 43,168 @ $7.82 | $338K | −6.1% of holding | +1.8% | +144.7% | 661,041 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Patel Sanjiv | director | Sale | 62,073 @ $7.00 | $435K | −8.1% of holding | +12.7% | +78.2% | 703,215 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | Rahmer Peter | officer | Sale | 21,394 @ $7.50 | $160K | −6.0% of holding | +8.9% | +68.6% | 337,469 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | Bergstrom Donald A | officer | Sale | 30,897 @ $7.29 | $225K | −5.6% of holding | +7.9% | +67.1% | 521,823 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Sale | 21,664 @ $7.29 | $158K | −6.5% of holding | +7.9% | +67.1% | 313,631 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | Rahmer Peter | officer | Sale | 19,135 @ $7.29 | $139K | −5.1% of holding | +7.9% | +67.1% | 358,863 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | Bergstrom Donald A | officer | Sale | 26,701 @ $3.68 | $98K | −4.6% of holding | −3.2% | +101.2% | 552,720 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Sale | 18,380 @ $3.68 | $68K | −5.2% of holding | −3.2% | +101.2% | 335,295 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | Adams Brian | officer | Sale | 18,276 @ $3.68 | $67K | −4.7% of holding | −3.2% | +101.2% | 371,472 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | Rahmer Peter | officer | Sale | 15,724 @ $3.68 | $58K | −4.0% of holding | −3.2% | +101.2% | 377,998 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Bergstrom Donald A | officer | Sale | 4,069 @ $3.74 | $15K | −0.7% of holding | −5.6% | +119.9% | 579,421 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Sale | 1,701 @ $3.74 | $6K | −0.5% of holding | −5.6% | +119.9% | 353,675 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Adams Brian | officer | Sale | 1,637 @ $3.74 | $6K | −0.4% of holding | −5.6% | +119.9% | 389,748 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Rahmer Peter | officer | Sale | 1,359 @ $3.74 | $5K | −0.3% of holding | −5.6% | +119.9% | 393,722 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-09 | Patel Sanjiv | director | Sale | 42,740 @ $3.57 | $153K | −5.2% of holding | −9.7% | +103.6% | 783,927 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-09 | Patel Sanjiv | director | Sale | 18,639 @ $3.57 | $67K | −2.4% of holding | −9.7% | +103.6% | 765,288 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-30 | Bergstrom Donald A | officer | Sale | 27,472 @ $3.00 | $82K | −4.5% of holding | −16.2% | +94.9% | 583,490 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-30 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Sale | 12,943 @ $3.00 | $39K | −3.5% of holding | −16.2% | +94.9% | 355,376 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-30 | Adams Brian | officer | Sale | 12,943 @ $3.00 | $39K | −3.2% of holding | −16.2% | +94.9% | 391,385 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-30 | Rahmer Peter | officer | Sale | 10,739 @ $3.00 | $32K | −2.7% of holding | −16.2% | +94.9% | 390,081 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-29 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Sale | 3,558 @ $3.23 | $11K | −1.0% of holding | −7.1% | +117.9% | 368,319 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-28 | Bergstrom Donald A | officer | Sale | 4,090 @ $3.17 | $13K | −0.7% of holding | −16.2% | +101.3% | 610,962 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-28 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Sale | 1,709 @ $3.17 | $5K | −0.5% of holding | −16.2% | +101.3% | 372,858 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-28 | Adams Brian | officer | Sale | 1,644 @ $3.17 | $5K | −0.4% of holding | −16.2% | +101.3% | 404,328 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-28 | Rahmer Peter | officer | Sale | 1,364 @ $3.17 | $4K | −0.3% of holding | −16.2% | +101.3% | 400,820 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-28 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Sale | 981 @ $3.17 | $3K | −0.3% of holding | −16.2% | +101.3% | 371,877 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-23 | Patel Sanjiv | director | Sale | 42,769 @ $2.97 | $127K | −4.8% of holding | −17.3% | +82.9% | 840,320 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-23 | Patel Sanjiv | director | Sale | 18,653 @ $2.97 | $55K | −2.2% of holding | −17.3% | +82.9% | 821,667 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
46 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Patel Sanjiv | director | Award / grant | 3,056 | 664,097 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Rahmer Peter | officer | Award / grant | 3,056 | 228,913 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Bergstrom Donald A | officer | Option exercise | 93,456 | 512,013 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Option exercise | 61,563 | 239,024 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Option exercise | 56,323 | 233,784 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Option exercise | 51,560 | 229,021 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Option exercise | 51,560 | 223,440 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Bergstrom Donald A | officer | Option exercise | 93,456 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Option exercise | 61,563 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Option exercise | 56,323 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Mazumdar Claire | director | Award / grant | 32,947 | 32,947 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Murcko Mark | director | Award / grant | 32,947 | 32,947 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Borisy Alexis | director | Award / grant | 32,947 | 32,947 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | COATS LONNEL | director | Award / grant | 32,947 | 32,947 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | INGRAM DOUGLAS S | director | Award / grant | 32,947 | 32,947 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Dable Habib J | director | Award / grant | 32,947 | 32,947 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | HILL LINDA A | director | Award / grant | 32,947 | 32,947 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-09 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Option exercise | 1,800 | 215,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-09 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Option exercise | 1,800 | 61,563 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | Patel Sanjiv | director | Award / grant | 1,450,000 | 1,450,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | Rahmer Peter | officer | Award / grant | 475,000 | 475,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Award / grant | 400,000 | 400,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | Bergstrom Donald A | officer | Award / grant | 575,000 | 575,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Patel Sanjiv | director | Award / grant | 994 | 704,209 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Rahmer Peter | officer | Award / grant | 994 | 338,463 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Dable Habib J | director | Award / grant | 207,931 | 207,931 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | COATS LONNEL | director | Award / grant | 207,931 | 207,931 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Rahmer Peter | officer | Award / grant | 5,000 | 395,081 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Patel Sanjiv | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 826,667 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-09 | Mazumdar Claire | director | Award / grant | 421,241 | 421,241 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-06 | Murcko Mark | director | Award / grant | 136,681 | 136,681 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-06 | Rubin Jami | director | Award / grant | 136,681 | 136,681 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-06 | HILL LINDA A | director | Award / grant | 136,681 | 136,681 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-06 | Borisy Alexis | director | Award / grant | 136,681 | 136,681 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-06 | Kathiresan Sekar | director | Award / grant | 136,681 | 136,681 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-06 | INGRAM DOUGLAS S | director | Award / grant | 136,681 | 136,681 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-11 | Patel Sanjiv | director | Award / grant | 332,465 | 958,413 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-28 | Bergstrom Donald A | officer | Award / grant | 176,400 | 693,268 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-28 | Adams Brian | officer | Award / grant | 139,141 | 427,061 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-28 | Catinazzo Thomas | officer | Award / grant | 139,141 | 402,331 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.