Issued 2026-09-16 at $338.36 · now $338.36 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RL has typically landed between $294.51 and $394.18 — a range of −13.0% to +16.5% from the issuance price $338.36.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($338.36) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $338.36 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $338.36 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $344.59 (+1.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $323.62–$365.56
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $294.51–$394.18
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −45.8% | −45.8% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −45.3% | −45.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −44.3% | −44.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-05 | +45.9% | −1.4% | +45.9% |
| 2009-03-12 | +43.4% | −0.2% | +43.4% |
| 2008-11-19 | +42.5% | −0.4% | +49.4% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$22.8B
market cap
$15.11
EPS (TTM)
24.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-06
next earnings
Revenue$8.1B
'21'26
Net income$941M
'21'26
Free cash flow$746M
'21'26
Net margin · by yr11.6%
'21'26
ROE · by yr33.1%
'21'26
Debt / equity · by yr1.05
'21'26
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$170.93
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$359.94
- Analyst target · range $405.00–$511.00$435.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$338.36
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
44%
+1.2%
n=18
Feb
58%
+2.1%
n=19
Mar
53%
−1.6%
n=19
Apr
58%
+2.4%
n=19
May
42%
−0.0%
n=19
Jun
37%
−0.6%
n=19
Jul
63%
+2.5%
n=19
Aug
42%
+0.1%
n=19
Sep
47%
+1.8%
n=19
Oct
61%
+0.6%
n=18
Nov
78%
+7.1%
n=18
Dec
61%
+1.3%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Ranftl Robert P. | officer | Sale | 2,901 @ $377.81 | $1.1M | −28.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,261 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Alagoz Halide | officer | Sale | 6,559 @ $402.77 | $2.6M | −25.8% of holding | −16.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,851 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Ranftl Robert P. | officer | Sale | 6,500 @ $359.56 | $2.3M | −42.0% of holding | +10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,971 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | LAUREN RALPH | director | Sale | 263,654 @ $378.25 | $99.7M | −88.0% of holding | +9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,854 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Alagoz Halide | officer | Sale | 1,120 @ $362.00 | $405K | −5.0% of holding | +1.0% | −18.3% | 21,113 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Louvet Patrice | director | Sale | 13,619 @ $352.46 | $4.8M | −10.5% of holding | −2.2% | −0.3% | 115,851 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Louvet Patrice | director | Sale | 12,796 @ $353.48 | $4.5M | −11.0% of holding | −2.2% | −0.3% | 103,055 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Louvet Patrice | director | Sale | 4,611 @ $356.55 | $1.6M | −4.8% of holding | −2.2% | −0.3% | 91,975 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Louvet Patrice | director | Sale | 3,912 @ $355.60 | $1.4M | −3.9% of holding | −2.2% | −0.3% | 96,586 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Louvet Patrice | director | Sale | 3,133 @ $357.24 | $1.1M | −3.4% of holding | −2.2% | −0.3% | 88,842 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Louvet Patrice | director | Sale | 2,557 @ $354.50 | $906K | −2.5% of holding | −2.2% | −0.3% | 100,498 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Louvet Patrice | director | Sale | 1,803 @ $351.95 | $635K | −1.4% of holding | −2.2% | −0.3% | 129,470 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Louvet Patrice | director | Sale | 1,227 @ $361.27 | $443K | −1.4% of holding | −2.2% | −0.3% | 85,555 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Louvet Patrice | director | Sale | 863 @ $358.55 | $309K | −1.0% of holding | −2.2% | −0.3% | 87,979 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Louvet Patrice | director | Sale | 699 @ $359.62 | $251K | −0.8% of holding | −2.2% | −0.3% | 87,280 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Louvet Patrice | director | Sale | 714 @ $348.34 | $249K | −0.5% of holding | −2.2% | −0.3% | 131,417 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Louvet Patrice | director | Sale | 498 @ $360.25 | $179K | −0.6% of holding | −2.2% | −0.3% | 86,782 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Louvet Patrice | director | Sale | 421 @ $347.36 | $146K | −0.3% of holding | −2.2% | −0.3% | 132,131 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Louvet Patrice | director | Sale | 144 @ $349.53 | $50K | −0.1% of holding | −2.2% | −0.3% | 131,273 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Louvet Patrice | director | Sale | 3 @ $362.10 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | −2.2% | −0.3% | 85,552 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Alagoz Halide | officer | Sale | 1,882 @ $366.00 | $689K | −7.8% of holding | +1.6% | −8.1% | 22,233 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | Alagoz Halide | officer | Sale | 2,337 @ $317.00 | $741K | −8.8% of holding | −2.7% | +1.9% | 24,115 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Alagoz Halide | officer | Sale | 5,282 @ $295.00 | $1.6M | −16.6% of holding | +3.6% | +17.1% | 26,452 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Ranftl Robert P. | officer | Sale | 4,206 @ $285.21 | $1.2M | −31.9% of holding | +6.5% | +25.2% | 8,962 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | LAUREN RALPH | director | Sale | 265,000 @ $269.75 | $71.5M | −88.1% of holding | +2.9% | +18.1% | 35,854 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-04 | Ranftl Robert P. | officer | Sale | 7,350 @ $280.21 | $2.1M | −35.8% of holding | −1.3% | +14.3% | 13,168 | Form 4 · filed 77 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Louvet Patrice | director | Sale | 7,557 @ $240.00 | $1.8M | −7.8% of holding | +11.1% | +11.3% | 89,692 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | Louvet Patrice | director | Sale | 7,400 @ $235.00 | $1.7M | −7.1% of holding | −2.9% | +16.3% | 97,249 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | Louvet Patrice | director | Sale | 7,400 @ $230.00 | $1.7M | −6.6% of holding | −2.9% | +16.3% | 104,649 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | Alagoz Halide | officer | Sale | 6,724 @ $285.00 | $1.9M | −20.6% of holding | −14.4% | −5.0% | 25,897 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-11 | Louvet Patrice | director | Sale | 9,117 @ $227.48 | $2.1M | −7.2% of holding | +8.7% | +19.9% | 118,098 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-11 | Louvet Patrice | director | Sale | 5,891 @ $228.36 | $1.3M | −5.0% of holding | +8.7% | +19.9% | 112,207 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-11 | Louvet Patrice | director | Sale | 4,617 @ $225.56 | $1.0M | −3.4% of holding | +8.7% | +19.9% | 131,432 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-11 | Louvet Patrice | director | Sale | 4,217 @ $226.47 | $955K | −3.2% of holding | +8.7% | +19.9% | 127,215 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-11 | Louvet Patrice | director | Sale | 158 @ $229.52 | $36K | −0.1% of holding | +8.7% | +19.9% | 112,049 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
226 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Louvet Patrice | director | Withheld for tax | 7,875 | 140,823 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Louvet Patrice | director | Withheld for tax | 5,729 | 135,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Louvet Patrice | director | Withheld for tax | 3,260 | 130,337 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Louvet Patrice | director | Withheld for tax | 1,497 | 133,597 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Picicci Justin M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,192 | 12,314 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Alagoz Halide | officer | Withheld for tax | 923 | 20,511 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Ranftl Robert P. | officer | Withheld for tax | 913 | 11,504 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Louvet Patrice | director | Withheld for tax | 852 | 129,485 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Alagoz Halide | officer | Withheld for tax | 839 | 19,672 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Ranftl Robert P. | officer | Withheld for tax | 775 | 10,729 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Lauren David R. | director | Withheld for tax | 769 | 15,185 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Picicci Justin M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 671 | 11,643 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Alagoz Halide | officer | Withheld for tax | 636 | 19,036 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Ranftl Robert P. | officer | Withheld for tax | 567 | 10,162 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Lauren David R. | director | Withheld for tax | 560 | 14,625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Picicci Justin M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 382 | 11,261 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Lauren David R. | director | Withheld for tax | 382 | 14,243 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Alagoz Halide | officer | Award / grant | 2,583 | 21,434 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Ranftl Robert P. | officer | Award / grant | 2,904 | 12,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Ranftl Robert P. | officer | Award / grant | 2,904 | 12,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Ranftl Robert P. | officer | Award / grant | 2,904 | 12,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Alagoz Halide | officer | Award / grant | 2,583 | 21,434 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Lauren David R. | director | Award / grant | 1,548 | 15,954 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Louvet Patrice | director | Award / grant | 23,241 | 148,698 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Ranftl Robert P. | officer | Award / grant | 2,904 | 12,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Picicci Justin M. | officer | Award / grant | 1,938 | 13,506 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Louvet Patrice | director | Award / grant | 23,241 | 148,698 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Lauren David R. | director | Award / grant | 1,548 | 15,954 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Alagoz Halide | officer | Award / grant | 2,583 | 21,434 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Picicci Justin M. | officer | Award / grant | 1,938 | 13,506 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Louvet Patrice | director | Award / grant | 23,241 | 148,698 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Picicci Justin M. | officer | Award / grant | 1,938 | 13,506 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Lauren David R. | director | Award / grant | 1,548 | 15,954 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Alagoz Halide | officer | Award / grant | 2,583 | 21,434 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Picicci Justin M. | officer | Award / grant | 1,938 | 13,506 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Louvet Patrice | director | Award / grant | 23,241 | 148,698 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Lauren David R. | director | Award / grant | 1,548 | 15,954 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | BENNACK FRANK A JR | director | Award / grant | 458 | 32,890 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | AHRENDTS ANGELA J | director | Award / grant | 458 | 11,021 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | Conde Cesar | director | Award / grant | 458 | 468 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-10-03 | 2025-09-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-09-06 | 2024-08-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2022-06-10 | 2022-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2022-06-10 | 2022-05-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2022-02-08 | 2022-01-21 | $1–15K |
| David Perdue | Senate | sale | 2020-05-08 | 2020-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Donna Shalala | House | sale | 2020-04-27 | 2019-01-09 | $1–15K |
| Donna Shalala | House | sale | 2020-04-27 | 2019-06-04 | $1–15K |
| David Perdue | Senate | purchase | 2020-04-05 | 2020-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2019-09-11 | 2019-08-12 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2019-07-11 | 2019-06-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2018-11-09 | 2018-10-17 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2018-01-22 | 2017-12-15 | $50–100K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.