Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.95 · now $12.95 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RKT has typically landed between $10.22 and $16.36 — a range of −21.1% to +26.3% from the issuance price $12.95.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,513 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-08-06 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.95) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RKT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.95 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $12.95 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.88 (-0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $11.46–$14.3
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.22–$16.36
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,513 windows spanning 2020-08-06 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-08-16 | −33.1% | −35.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-08-24 | −30.3% | −30.3% | +7.6% |
| 2022-08-17 | −30.1% | −33.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-11-21 | +66.5% | −0.2% | +66.5% |
| 2023-11-24 | +65.0% | +0.0% | +65.0% |
| 2023-11-22 | +65.0% | +0.0% | +66.9% |
1,513 overlapping windows · 2020-08-06 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+3.3%
n=6
Feb
83%
+0.5%
n=6
Mar
50%
+0.6%
n=6
Apr
33%
−5.2%
n=6
May
33%
−2.9%
n=6
Jun
67%
+3.4%
n=6
Jul
67%
+7.5%
n=6
Aug
67%
+4.5%
n=6
Sep
14%
−10.9%
n=7
Oct
33%
−6.1%
n=6
Nov
67%
+10.8%
n=6
Dec
17%
+0.3%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Bray Jesse K | director | Sale | 225,000 @ $13.11 | $2.9M | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,953,027 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $22.99 | $57K | −0.2% of holding | −19.3% | −46.2% | 1,038,536 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $22.78 | $57K | −0.2% of holding | −12.8% | −47.5% | 1,041,036 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $21.29 | $53K | −0.2% of holding | −8.3% | −43.7% | 1,043,536 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $21.26 | $53K | −0.2% of holding | −11.4% | −42.4% | 1,046,036 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $20.98 | $52K | −0.2% of holding | −7.4% | −40.6% | 1,048,536 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $21.04 | $53K | −0.2% of holding | −5.0% | −41.9% | 1,051,036 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $19.70 | $49K | −0.2% of holding | +1.4% | −36.4% | 1,053,536 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $19.45 | $49K | −0.2% of holding | −5.0% | −30.4% | 1,056,036 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-30 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $19.88 | $50K | −0.2% of holding | −11.3% | −30.4% | 1,058,536 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-29 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $19.25 | $48K | −0.2% of holding | +6.3% | −27.2% | 1,061,036 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-26 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $19.38 | $48K | −0.2% of holding | +6.2% | −27.6% | 1,063,536 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-24 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $19.44 | $49K | −0.2% of holding | +7.4% | −28.2% | 1,066,036 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-23 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $18.92 | $47K | −0.2% of holding | +10.5% | −27.9% | 1,068,536 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $18.99 | $47K | −0.2% of holding | +8.9% | −30.9% | 1,071,036 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $19.21 | $48K | −0.2% of holding | +11.5% | −31.1% | 1,073,536 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $18.83 | $47K | −0.2% of holding | +12.2% | −37.1% | 1,076,036 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $18.21 | $46K | −0.2% of holding | +20.2% | −38.3% | 1,078,536 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $18.08 | $45K | −0.2% of holding | +25.4% | −31.8% | 1,081,036 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $17.97 | $45K | −0.2% of holding | +26.8% | −36.8% | 1,083,536 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $18.99 | $47K | −0.2% of holding | +19.6% | −36.3% | 1,086,036 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-11 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $19.47 | $49K | −0.2% of holding | +16.6% | −38.3% | 1,088,536 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $19.17 | $48K | −0.2% of holding | +19.1% | −40.6% | 1,091,036 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $18.81 | $47K | −0.2% of holding | +20.7% | −37.9% | 1,093,536 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-08 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $18.78 | $47K | −0.2% of holding | +11.8% | −40.1% | 1,096,036 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $19.34 | $48K | −0.3% of holding | +11.0% | −38.8% | 988,184 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $19.86 | $50K | −0.3% of holding | +8.0% | −44.9% | 990,684 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $19.98 | $50K | −0.3% of holding | +6.2% | −44.3% | 993,184 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $20.21 | $51K | −0.3% of holding | +0.1% | −44.7% | 995,684 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $19.81 | $50K | −0.2% of holding | −5.2% | −47.8% | 998,184 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-28 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $19.89 | $50K | −0.2% of holding | −0.4% | −41.6% | 1,000,684 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $19.85 | $50K | −0.2% of holding | −3.4% | −40.4% | 1,003,184 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $19.29 | $48K | −0.2% of holding | −3.8% | −38.9% | 1,005,684 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $17.77 | $44K | −0.2% of holding | +3.8% | −34.0% | 1,008,184 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $17.03 | $43K | −0.2% of holding | +4.7% | −32.7% | 1,010,684 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $16.91 | $42K | −0.2% of holding | +13.7% | −28.9% | 1,013,184 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $17.04 | $43K | −0.2% of holding | +10.7% | −31.0% | 1,015,684 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $16.78 | $42K | −0.2% of holding | +7.4% | −31.4% | 1,018,184 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $16.70 | $42K | −0.2% of holding | +9.7% | −29.0% | 1,020,684 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $17.17 | $43K | −0.2% of holding | +5.8% | −35.5% | 1,023,184 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $17.47 | $44K | −0.2% of holding | +4.8% | −34.5% | 1,025,684 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $17.69 | $44K | −0.2% of holding | +4.6% | −34.3% | 1,028,184 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Rizik Matthew | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $17.46 | $44K | −0.2% of holding | +7.6% | −30.2% | 1,030,684 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
155 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Krishna Varun | director | Withheld for tax | 58,259 | 1,958,664 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Brown Brian Nicholas | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,675 | 1,624,066 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | Krishna Varun | director | Withheld for tax | 126,999 | 2,016,923 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | Mildenhall Jonathan | director | Withheld for tax | 80,287 | 808,657 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | Lovier Heather M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 61,669 | 2,259,115 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | Banfield William D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 61,315 | 3,667,548 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | Brown Brian Nicholas | officer | Withheld for tax | 44,042 | 1,638,741 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | Malhotra Shawn | officer | Withheld for tax | 37,930 | 867,341 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | Bray Jesse K | director | Withheld for tax | 29,279 | 7,870,140 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | Rizik Matthew | director | Other acquisition | 14,796 | 2,424,541 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | Edwards Noah A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,009 | 156,613 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | Rizik Matthew | director | Option exercise | 14,796 | 105,695 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | Rizik Matthew | director | Option exercise | 14,796 | 2,439,337 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | Rizik Matthew | director | Option exercise | 14,796 | 2,439,337 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | Rizik Matthew | director | Option exercise | 14,796 | 2,439,337 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | Rizik Matthew | director | Option exercise | 14,796 | 2,439,337 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Watterson Sarah | director | Award / grant | 14,566 | 14,566 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | SHANK SUZANNE F. | director | Award / grant | 16,312 | 119,558 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Olson Tagar | director | Award / grant | 11,255 | 289,595 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Rampell Alastair | director | Award / grant | 16,312 | 54,639 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | MARINER JONATHAN D | director | Award / grant | 16,312 | 102,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-07 | Rizik Matthew | director | Other acquisition | 12,261 | 1,038,536 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-07 | Rizik Matthew | director | Option exercise | 12,261 | 120,491 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-07 | Rizik Matthew | director | Option exercise | 12,261 | 1,050,797 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-07 | Rizik Matthew | director | Option exercise | 12,261 | 1,050,797 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Malhotra Shawn | officer | Withheld for tax | 52,484 | 905,271 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Brown Brian Nicholas | officer | Withheld for tax | 16,112 | 1,287,006 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Malhotra Shawn | officer | Withheld for tax | 13,751 | 957,755 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Mildenhall Jonathan | director | Withheld for tax | 12,860 | 888,944 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Lovier Heather M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,056 | 907,295 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Banfield William D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,056 | 901,884 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Edwards Noah A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,302 | 168,622 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Bray Jesse K | director | Withheld for tax | 57,200 | 7,978,342 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Bray Jesse K | director | Gift | 30,100 | 6,934,957 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Bray Jesse K | director | Gift | 62,960 | 6,871,997 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Krishna Varun | director | Withheld for tax | 58,259 | 2,143,922 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Brown Brian Nicholas | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,675 | 1,303,118 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-07 | Mildenhall Jonathan | director | Withheld for tax | 60,949 | 901,804 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-07 | Krishna Varun | director | Withheld for tax | 52,082 | 2,202,181 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-07 | Banfield William D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 44,053 | 909,940 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.