Issued 2026-09-16 at $63.70 · now $63.70 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RKLB has typically landed between $46.49 and $93.50 — a range of −27.0% to +46.8% from the issuance price $63.70.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,437 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-11-24 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($63.70) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RKLB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $63.7 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $63.7 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $65.1 (+2.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $54.29–$75.9
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $46.49–$93.5
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,437 windows spanning 2020-11-24 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-19 | −44.3% | −44.3% | +0.2% |
| 2022-04-25 | −44.2% | −44.2% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-20 | −43.9% | −44.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-10-30 | +148.9% | −2.4% | +148.9% |
| 2024-10-28 | +125.9% | −5.0% | +125.9% |
| 2024-10-31 | +125.8% | +0.0% | +155.0% |
1,437 overlapping windows · 2020-11-24 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
+4.1%
n=6
Feb
17%
−9.0%
n=6
Mar
17%
−6.8%
n=6
Apr
33%
+3.1%
n=6
May
67%
+15.0%
n=6
Jun
67%
+5.7%
n=6
Jul
67%
+6.8%
n=6
Aug
50%
+4.3%
n=6
Sep
33%
+9.6%
n=6
Oct
60%
+10.0%
n=5
Nov
60%
+24.1%
n=5
Dec
50%
+9.0%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Spice Adam C. | officer | Sale | 72,900 @ $62.97 | $4.6M | −5.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,155,967 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Spice Adam C. | officer | Sale | 67,257 @ $62.26 | $4.2M | −5.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,228,867 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Klein Frank | officer | Sale | 19,800 @ $66.86 | $1.3M | −2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 926,195 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Klein Frank | officer | Sale | 15,300 @ $66.25 | $1.0M | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 945,995 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Kampani Arjun | officer | Sale | 4,600 @ $66.50 | $306K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 252,351 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Kampani Arjun | officer | Sale | 1,434 @ $67.16 | $96K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 250,917 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Klein Frank | officer | Sale | 458 @ $67.54 | $31K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 925,737 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Klein Frank | officer | Sale | 42,270 @ $69.53 | $2.9M | −4.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 964,717 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Clevenger Marvin Bradford | officer | Sale | 13,924 @ $69.53 | $968K | −2.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 460,051 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Spice Adam C. | officer | Sale | 8,952 @ $69.53 | $622K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,156,692 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Kampani Arjun | officer | Sale | 7,173 @ $69.53 | $499K | −2.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 257,532 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Klein Frank | officer | Sale | 2,054 @ $71.17 | $146K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 961,295 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Klein Frank | officer | Sale | 1,368 @ $70.20 | $96K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 963,349 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Clevenger Marvin Bradford | officer | Sale | 677 @ $71.17 | $48K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 458,924 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Ricupati Agostino | officer | Sale | 619 @ $69.53 | $43K | −2.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 26,913 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Clevenger Marvin Bradford | officer | Sale | 450 @ $70.20 | $32K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 459,601 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Spice Adam C. | officer | Sale | 435 @ $71.17 | $31K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,155,967 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Kampani Arjun | officer | Sale | 349 @ $71.17 | $25K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 256,951 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Spice Adam C. | officer | Sale | 290 @ $70.20 | $20K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,156,402 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Kampani Arjun | officer | Sale | 232 @ $70.20 | $16K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 257,300 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Ricupati Agostino | officer | Sale | 30 @ $71.17 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 26,863 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Ricupati Agostino | officer | Sale | 20 @ $70.20 | $1K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 26,893 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Beck Peter | director | Sale | 354,128 @ $82.48 | $29.2M | −14.5% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,095,095 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-08 | Beck Peter | director | Sale | 265,958 @ $81.59 | $21.7M | −9.8% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,449,223 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-08 | Beck Peter | director | Sale | 156,666 @ $83.33 | $13.1M | −7.5% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,938,429 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-08 | Beck Peter | director | Sale | 142,390 @ $84.43 | $12.0M | −7.3% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,796,039 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-08 | Beck Peter | director | Sale | 67,773 @ $85.30 | $5.8M | −3.8% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,728,266 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-08 | Beck Peter | director | Sale | 4,045 @ $86.12 | $348K | −0.2% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,724,221 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-07 | Beck Peter | director | Sale | 458,494 @ $84.31 | $38.7M | −12.5% of holding | −13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,213,119 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Beck Peter | director | Sale | 342,190 @ $83.58 | $28.6M | −8.5% of holding | −13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,671,613 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Beck Peter | director | Sale | 257,803 @ $85.33 | $22.0M | −8.0% of holding | −13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,955,316 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Beck Peter | director | Sale | 88,548 @ $86.12 | $7.6M | −3.0% of holding | −13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,866,768 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Beck Peter | director | Sale | 74,874 @ $88.40 | $6.6M | −2.7% of holding | −13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,750,340 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Beck Peter | director | Sale | 41,554 @ $87.31 | $3.6M | −1.4% of holding | −13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,825,214 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Beck Peter | director | Sale | 20,593 @ $89.37 | $1.8M | −0.7% of holding | −13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,729,747 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Beck Peter | director | Sale | 14,566 @ $90.26 | $1.3M | −0.5% of holding | −13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,715,181 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Beck Peter | director | Sale | 213,106 @ $92.81 | $19.8M | −4.3% of holding | −22.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,786,894 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Beck Peter | director | Sale | 198,726 @ $93.74 | $18.6M | −4.2% of holding | −22.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,588,168 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Beck Peter | director | Sale | 169,457 @ $96.78 | $16.4M | −3.9% of holding | −22.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,195,846 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Beck Peter | director | Sale | 138,478 @ $95.89 | $13.3M | −3.1% of holding | −22.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,365,303 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Beck Peter | director | Sale | 84,387 @ $94.69 | $8.0M | −1.8% of holding | −22.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,503,781 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Beck Peter | director | Sale | 77,684 @ $97.70 | $7.6M | −1.9% of holding | −22.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,118,162 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Beck Peter | director | Sale | 76,178 @ $98.70 | $7.5M | −1.8% of holding | −22.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,041,984 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Beck Peter | director | Sale | 14,266 @ $100.53 | $1.4M | −0.4% of holding | −22.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,019,516 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Beck Peter | director | Sale | 8,202 @ $99.62 | $817K | −0.2% of holding | −22.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,033,782 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Beck Peter | director | Sale | 5,713 @ $101.57 | $580K | −0.1% of holding | −22.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,013,803 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Kampani Arjun | officer | Sale | 88,000 @ $107.98 | $9.5M | −25.0% of holding | −35.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 264,705 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-02 | Slusky Alexander R | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $123.60 | $4.9M | −10.7% of holding | −16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 334,675 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Slusky Alexander R | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $149.10 | $6.0M | −9.2% of holding | −32.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 394,675 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Slusky Alexander R | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $150.00 | $3.0M | −5.1% of holding | −32.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 374,675 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Klein Frank | officer | Sale | 9,909 @ $147.13 | $1.5M | −1.0% of holding | −32.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,024,938 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Klein Frank | officer | Sale | 8,694 @ $148.13 | $1.3M | −0.8% of holding | −32.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,016,244 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Klein Frank | officer | Sale | 7,848 @ $149.09 | $1.2M | −0.8% of holding | −32.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,008,396 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Kampani Arjun | officer | Sale | 6,698 @ $147.51 | $988K | −1.8% of holding | −32.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 362,011 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Kampani Arjun | officer | Sale | 6,006 @ $148.52 | $892K | −1.7% of holding | −32.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 356,005 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Kampani Arjun | officer | Sale | 4,310 @ $146.62 | $632K | −1.2% of holding | −32.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 368,709 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Klein Frank | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $146.27 | $585K | −0.4% of holding | −32.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,034,847 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Clevenger Marvin Bradford | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $146.67 | $513K | −0.7% of holding | −32.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 473,975 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Kampani Arjun | officer | Sale | 3,100 @ $149.39 | $463K | −0.9% of holding | −32.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 352,905 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Klein Frank | officer | Sale | 2,700 @ $144.15 | $389K | −0.3% of holding | −32.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,040,447 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
44 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Spice Adam C. | officer | Option exercise | 140,157 | 1,296,124 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Spice Adam C. | officer | Option exercise | 140,157 | 2,382,668 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Saintil Merline | director | Gift | 261,903 | 261,903 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Saintil Merline | director | Gift | 261,903 | 2,482 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Spice Adam C. | officer | Gift | 30,000 | 1,165,644 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Ricupati Agostino | officer | Award / grant | 27,532 | 27,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Spice Adam C. | officer | Award / grant | 275,319 | 1,195,644 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Spice Adam C. | officer | Gift | 62,724 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Spice Adam C. | officer | Gift | 62,724 | 920,325 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Spice Adam C. | officer | Gift | 62,724 | 62,724 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Frank Edward H. | director | Gift | 91,373 | 53,613 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Frank Edward H. | director | Gift | 91,373 | 91,373 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Beck Peter | director | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Beck Peter | director | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 40,951,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Frank Edward H. | director | Award / grant | 2,482 | 144,986 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Armagno Nina | director | Award / grant | 2,482 | 111,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Olson Jon A | director | Award / grant | 2,482 | 348,112 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Possenriede Kenneth R | director | Award / grant | 2,482 | 96,660 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Saintil Merline | director | Award / grant | 2,482 | 264,385 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Slusky Alexander R | director | Award / grant | 2,482 | 61,331 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Slusky Alexander R | director | Gift | 10,000 | 58,849 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | Kampani Arjun | officer | Award / grant | 77,189 | 475,177 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Spice Adam C. | officer | Gift | 1,558 | 1,295,266 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Spice Adam C. | officer | Option exercise | 731,330 | 2,725,233 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Spice Adam C. | officer | Option exercise | 731,330 | 2,522,825 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-23 | Frank Edward H. | director | Gift | 5,000 | 145,004 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-23 | Slusky Alexander R | director | Gift | 20,000 | 68,849 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-23 | Spice Adam C. | officer | Gift | 1,470 | 1,993,903 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Beck Peter | director | Award / grant | 132,426 | 921,799 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-18 | Spice Adam C. | officer | Option exercise | 1,867,496 | 2,932,477 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-18 | Spice Adam C. | officer | Option exercise | 1,867,496 | 3,254,155 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-18 | Slusky Alexander R | director | Gift | 35,000 | 88,849 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-16 | Ocko Matthew | director | Other acquisition | 9,894 | 9,894 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-16 | Ocko Matthew | director | Other acquisition | 541,526 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-16 | Ocko Matthew | director | Other acquisition | 164,026 | 164,026 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-16 | Ocko Matthew | director | Other acquisition | 1,331,569 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-27 | Olson Jon A | director | Award / grant | 3,960 | 436,235 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-27 | Armagno Nina | director | Award / grant | 3,960 | 136,254 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-27 | Possenriede Kenneth R | director | Award / grant | 3,960 | 94,178 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-27 | Slusky Alexander R | director | Award / grant | 3,960 | 123,849 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.