RJFRaymond James Financial, Inc.Financial Services · Financial - Capital Marketsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $164.57 · now $164.57 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RJF has typically landed between $146.07 and $185.33 — a range of −11.2% to +12.6% from the issuance price $164.57.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($164.57) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where RJF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $164.57 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$146.07worst · -11.2%$185.33best · +12.6%
  • now $164.57 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $167.19 (+1.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $157.71–$176.67
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $146.07–$185.33
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−43.6%−43.6%+0.0%
2009-02-04−41.9%−41.9%+9.5%
2008-09-26−41.6%−41.6%+8.7%
3 best
2009-03-06+64.3%+0.0%+76.0%
2009-03-05+60.0%−7.0%+63.8%
2009-03-03+47.0%−11.2%+56.3%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$32.5B
market cap
$11.48
EPS (TTM)
14.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-28
next earnings
Revenue$15.9B
'20'25
Net income$2.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.2B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr13.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr17.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.36
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $164.57$151.83$336.62
  • DCF (intrinsic)$323.87
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$188.07
  • Analyst target · range $175.00–$179.00$177.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$164.57

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
78%
+4.1%
n=18
Feb
58%
−1.0%
n=19
Mar
58%
+1.3%
n=19
Apr
47%
+1.0%
n=19
May
58%
+0.0%
n=19
Jun
53%
−0.3%
n=19
Jul
68%
+4.5%
n=19
Aug
63%
+0.6%
n=19
Sep
47%
+0.4%
n=19
Oct
78%
+3.2%
n=18
Nov
67%
+4.7%
n=18
Dec
56%
−0.1%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$181$1402026-08-28: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — Allaire Bella Loykhter2026-07-28: 1 insider sale, $1.8M — Elwyn Tashtego S2026-07-27: 1 insider sale, $998K — Raney Steven M2026-03-19: 1 insider sale, $4.2M — Allaire Bella Loykhter2026-02-04: 1 insider sale, $767K — Santelli Jonathan N2025-12-15: 3 insider sales, $21.3M — REILLY PAUL C …2025-12: 3 open-market sales, $21.3M2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $767K2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $4.2M2026-07: 2 open-market sales, $2.8M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $1.3M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Allaire Bella Loykhter — Sale on 2026-08-28, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Elwyn Tashtego S — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Raney Steven M — Sale on 2026-07-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Allaire Bella Loykhter — Sale on 2026-03-19, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Santelli Jonathan N — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector REILLY PAUL C — Sale on 2025-12-15, filed same daydirector REILLY PAUL C — Sale on 2025-12-15, filed same daydirector REILLY PAUL C — Sale on 2025-12-15, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-28Allaire Bella LoykhterdirectorSale7,500 @ $177.60$1.3M−14.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open46,086Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-07-28Elwyn Tashtego SofficerSale10,000 @ $176.06$1.8M−18.1% of holding−3.7%not yet — horizon still open45,114Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-27Raney Steven MofficerSale5,770 @ $172.97$998K−11.8% of holding−3.0%not yet — horizon still open43,046Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-19Allaire Bella LoykhterdirectorSale29,551 @ $142.34$4.2M−35.5% of holding−0.7%not yet — horizon still open53,586Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-04Santelli Jonathan NofficerSale4,500 @ $170.46$767K−14.4% of holding−8.5%−6.3%26,853Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-15REILLY PAUL CdirectorSale56,757 @ $162.69$9.2M−17.9% of holding+3.7%−11.3%260,546Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-15REILLY PAUL CdirectorSale53,660 @ $163.24$8.8M−14.5% of holding+3.7%−11.3%317,303Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-15REILLY PAUL CdirectorSale20,270 @ $164.22$3.3M−4.0% of holding+3.7%−11.3%483,960Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

292 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-20Helal TarekofficerGift23,39748,537Form 4
2026-08-20Helal TarekofficerGift23,39725,140Form 4
2026-08-18Curtis Scott AofficerGift1,000191,418Form 4
2026-02-28Aisenbrey Christopher SofficerWithheld for tax13217,490Form 4
2026-02-28Aisenbrey Christopher SofficerOption exercise60017,622Form 4
2026-02-28Aisenbrey Christopher SofficerOption exercise600600Form 4
2026-02-24Edwards Jeffrey NdirectorGift1,50422,008Form 4
2026-02-24Edwards Jeffrey NdirectorGift1,5049,533Form 4
2026-02-19Mistarz CecilydirectorOption exercise2501,999Form 4
2026-02-19MCGEARY RODERICK CdirectorAward / grant1,30324,354Form 4
2026-02-19MCDANIEL RAYMOND WdirectorAward / grant1,3036,113Form 4
2026-02-19Mistarz CecilydirectorOption exercise2501,749Form 4
2026-02-19Mistarz CecilydirectorOption exercise1,253496Form 4
2026-02-19GARCIA ART AdirectorAward / grant1,3036,992Form 4
2026-02-19Gates AnnedirectorAward / grant1,30316,848Form 4
2026-02-19Seshadri RajdirectorAward / grant1,30313,782Form 4
2026-02-19Esty BenjamindirectorAward / grant1,30331,794Form 4
2026-02-19DEBEL MARLENEdirectorOption exercise1,2531,303Form 4
2026-02-19DEBEL MARLENEdirectorAward / grant1,3032,556Form 4
2026-02-19Edwards Jeffrey NdirectorOption exercise1,25311,037Form 4
2026-02-19Edwards Jeffrey NdirectorAward / grant1,3032,556Form 4
2026-02-19Edwards Jeffrey NdirectorOption exercise1,2531,303Form 4
2026-02-19Mistarz CecilydirectorAward / grant1,3032,489Form 4
2026-02-19Mistarz CecilydirectorOption exercise1,2533,742Form 4
2026-02-19Mistarz CecilydirectorOption exercise2503,992Form 4
2026-02-19Mistarz CecilydirectorOption exercise2504,242Form 4
2026-02-19Mistarz CecilydirectorAward / grant2482,001Form 4
2026-02-19Mistarz CecilydirectorAward / grant2482,249Form 4
2026-02-19DEBEL MARLENEdirectorOption exercise1,2538,820Form 4
2026-02-19Begor Mark WdirectorAward / grant1,3032,285Form 4
2026-01-30Edwards Jeffrey NdirectorGift20,5059,784Form 4
2026-01-30Edwards Jeffrey NdirectorGift20,50520,505Form 4
2025-12-30Helal TarekofficerGift8081Form 4
2025-12-30Helal TarekofficerGift810Form 4
2025-12-30Helal TarekofficerGift8181Form 4
2025-12-15REILLY PAUL CdirectorWithheld for tax39,616370,963Form 4
2025-12-15REILLY PAUL CdirectorWithheld for tax22,466441,095Form 4
2025-12-15REILLY PAUL CdirectorWithheld for tax20,399463,561Form 4
2025-12-15REILLY PAUL CdirectorWithheld for tax11,570504,230Form 4
2025-12-15Elwyn Tashtego SofficerWithheld for tax10,70455,114Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-05-142025-04-07$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-05-122025-04-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-04-102025-03-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-03-062025-02-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-02-062025-01-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-12-052024-11-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-09-062024-08-05$1–15K
Jared MoskowitzHousesale2024-08-212023-07-14$100–250K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-06-052024-05-29$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.