RJET · TickerCove

RJETRepublic Airways Holdings Inc.Industrials · Airlines, Airports & Air Servicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $17.73 · now $17.73 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RJET has typically landed between $12.00 and $24.73 — a range of −32.3% to +39.5% from the issuance price $17.73.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,014 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-08-10 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($17.73) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$17.73 · 15% of range

$16.34 low$25.35 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−4.8%

typical move · IQR 27.6%

−32.3%worst (p90)+39.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where RJET has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $17.73 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $17.73 (+0.0%)
typical $16.88 (-4.8%)
middle 50% $14.43–$19.33
90% range $12–$24.73

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,014 windows spanning 2018-08-10 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-19	−64.5%	−64.5%	+2.1%
2020-02-18	−62.4%	−62.4%	+1.0%
2020-02-21	−60.7%	−64.8%	+0.0%
3 best
2022-12-27	+183.0%	+0.0%	+183.0%
2023-11-09	+161.4%	+0.0%	+181.8%
2022-12-22	+153.8%	+0.0%	+153.8%

2,014 overlapping windows · 2018-08-10 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

38%

+10.1%

n=8

Feb

50%

+9.2%

n=8

Mar

25%

−15.1%

n=8

Apr

50%

+4.9%

n=8

May

25%

−3.6%

n=8

Jun

63%

+7.9%

n=8

Jul

38%

−0.2%

n=8

Aug

38%

−10.8%

n=8

Sep

44%

−9.2%

n=9

Oct

50%

−6.1%

n=8

Nov

38%

+15.3%

n=8

Dec

63%

+4.1%

n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

62 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-17	Koscal Matthew	director	Withheld for tax	11,695	362,325	Form 4
2026-08-17	Pulley Chad M.	officer	Withheld for tax	5,913	172,608	Form 4
2026-08-17	Allman Joseph	officer	Withheld for tax	5,458	222,303	Form 4
2026-08-17	Kinstedt Paul	officer	Withheld for tax	5,345	220,448	Form 4
2026-08-17	Hornback Scott	officer	Withheld for tax	2,371	84,864	Form 4
2026-06-15	GRIZZLE J DAVID	director	Withheld for tax	80,976	148,245	Form 4
2026-06-15	GRIZZLE J DAVID	director	Withheld for tax	57,955	218,795	Form 4
2026-06-15	GRIZZLE J DAVID	director	Award / grant	128,505	276,750	Form 4
2026-06-15	Kinstedt Paul	officer	Award / grant	12,557	12,557	Form 4
2026-06-15	Allman Joseph	officer	Award / grant	12,557	12,557	Form 4
2026-05-29	Koscal Matthew	director	Withheld for tax	11,696	374,020	Form 4
2026-05-29	Pulley Chad M.	officer	Withheld for tax	5,913	178,521	Form 4
2026-05-29	GRIZZLE J DAVID	director	Withheld for tax	5,753	229,221	Form 4
2026-05-29	Allman Joseph	officer	Withheld for tax	5,458	227,761	Form 4
2026-05-29	Kinstedt Paul	officer	Withheld for tax	5,345	225,793	Form 4
2026-05-29	Hornback Scott	officer	Withheld for tax	2,371	87,235	Form 4
2026-05-21	JOHNSON GLENN S	director	Award / grant	7,261	28,746	Form 4
2026-05-21	Lenz Michael C.	director	Award / grant	7,261	15,410	Form 4
2026-05-21	Okediji Ruth L.	director	Award / grant	7,261	34,205	Form 4
2026-05-21	SWEETNAM JAMES E	director	Award / grant	7,261	34,205	Form 4
2026-05-21	RIDINGS BARRY W	director	Award / grant	7,261	34,205	Form 4
2026-05-21	ARTIST ELLEN N.	director	Award / grant	7,261	18,043	Form 4
2026-02-03	United Airlines Holdings, Inc.	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	2,744,348	10,490,745	Form 4
2026-02-03	United Airlines Holdings, Inc.	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	2,744,348	10,490,745	Form 4
2026-02-03	United Airlines Holdings, Inc.	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	2,744,348	10,490,745	Form 4
2025-12-31	Koscal Matthew	director	Withheld for tax	4,879	385,716	Form 4
2025-12-31	Kinstedt Paul	officer	Withheld for tax	3,484	231,138	Form 4
2025-12-31	Pulley Chad M.	officer	Withheld for tax	2,656	184,434	Form 4
2025-11-25	GRIZZLE J DAVID	director	Award / grant	208,030	234,974	Form 4
2025-11-25	Hornback Scott	officer	Award / grant	34,976	34,976	Form 4
2025-11-25	Hornback Scott	officer	Award / grant	54,630	89,606	Form 4
2025-11-25	Okediji Ruth L.	director	Award / grant	26,944	26,944	Form 4
2025-11-25	JOHNSON GLENN S	director	Award / grant	21,485	21,485	Form 4
2025-11-25	Kinstedt Paul	officer	Award / grant	87,422	87,422	Form 4
2025-11-25	Kinstedt Paul	officer	Award / grant	147,200	234,622	Form 4
2025-11-25	Kinstedt Paul	officer	Award / grant	87,422	87,422	Form 4
2025-11-25	Kinstedt Paul	officer	Award / grant	147,200	234,622	Form 4
2025-11-25	SWEETNAM JAMES E	director	Award / grant	26,944	26,944	Form 4
2025-11-25	Allman Joseph	officer	Award / grant	86,019	86,019	Form 4
2025-11-25	Allman Joseph	officer	Award / grant	147,200	233,219	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i