Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.23 · now $15.23 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RIVN has typically landed between $10.40 and $20.30 — a range of −31.7% to +33.3% from the issuance price $15.23.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,195 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-11-10 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.23) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RIVN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.23 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $15.23 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $14.8 (-2.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.87–$16.72
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.4–$20.3
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,195 windows spanning 2021-11-10 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-11 | −47.8% | −47.8% | +4.2% |
| 2021-12-28 | −47.6% | −47.6% | +0.8% |
| 2022-12-01 | −44.9% | −44.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-06-26 | +101.9% | +0.0% | +101.9% |
| 2023-06-23 | +87.4% | −0.6% | +91.5% |
| 2023-06-27 | +86.9% | +0.0% | +94.8% |
1,195 overlapping windows · 2021-11-10 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
20%
−19.4%
n=5
Feb
40%
−5.1%
n=5
Mar
20%
−9.1%
n=5
Apr
40%
−11.4%
n=5
May
80%
+9.4%
n=5
Jun
60%
+3.8%
n=5
Jul
60%
+20.6%
n=5
Aug
40%
−5.1%
n=5
Sep
60%
−2.0%
n=5
Oct
25%
−11.1%
n=4
Nov
75%
+10.1%
n=4
Dec
60%
+1.9%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | CALLAHAN MICHAEL JOHN | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $16.29 | $244K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,016,776 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | McDonough Claire | director | Sale | 8,023 @ $16.00 | $128K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 819,178 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | McDonough Claire | director | Sale | 13,144 @ $14.50 | $191K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 827,201 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-06 | Boone Karen | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $20.00 | $400K | −15.4% of holding | −24.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 110,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | McDonough Claire | director | Sale | 8,022 @ $18.00 | $144K | −0.9% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 878,985 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | McDonough Claire | director | Sale | 8,023 @ $16.00 | $128K | −0.9% of holding | +7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 887,007 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Scaringe Robert J | director | Sale | 34,818 @ $15.00 | $522K | −3.6% of holding | +12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 922,286 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | McDonough Claire | director | Sale | 7,600 @ $14.00 | $106K | −0.8% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 895,030 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | McDonough Claire | director | Sale | 5,544 @ $13.43 | $74K | −0.6% of holding | +21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 902,630 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Gomez Aidan N. | director | Purchase | 18,000 @ $13.97 | $251K | +45.0% of holding | +14.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 57,984 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | VOLKSWAGEN AG | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 62,889,522 @ $15.90 | $999.9M | +42.8% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 209,769,645 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-22 | McDonough Claire | director | Sale | 10,245 @ $18.00 | $184K | −1.1% of holding | −24.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 946,814 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | Scaringe Robert J | director | Sale | 21,446 @ $16.17 | $347K | −2.1% of holding | −17.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,001,138 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Scaringe Robert J | director | Sale | 20,264 @ $15.00 | $304K | −1.9% of holding | −1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,022,584 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Scaringe Robert J | director | Sale | 17,450 @ $15.60 | $272K | −1.6% of holding | +1.9% | −16.7% | 1,042,848 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Scaringe Robert J | director | Sale | 17,450 @ $15.00 | $262K | −1.7% of holding | +2.4% | −9.7% | 1,027,281 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Scaringe Robert J | director | Sale | 34,900 @ $16.80 | $586K | −3.2% of holding | +3.7% | −15.3% | 1,044,731 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-18 | McDonough Claire | director | Sale | 27,133 @ $16.80 | $456K | −3.8% of holding | +3.7% | −15.3% | 680,836 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-20 | Scaringe Robert J | director | Sale | 17,450 @ $16.03 | $280K | −1.5% of holding | −4.5% | −4.6% | 1,115,209 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Scaringe Robert J | director | Sale | 17,350 @ $19.54 | $339K | −1.5% of holding | −27.6% | −16.5% | 1,132,759 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Scaringe Robert J | director | Sale | 100 @ $20.09 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | −27.6% | −16.5% | 1,132,659 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-23 | Scaringe Robert J | director | Sale | 17,450 @ $21.43 | $374K | −1.5% of holding | −26.3% | −32.7% | 1,150,109 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Krawiec Peter | director | Sale | 3,655 @ $19.45 | $71K | −11.2% of holding | −10.8% | −22.5% | 29,122 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Scaringe Robert J | director | Sale | 17,450 @ $17.53 | $306K | −1.5% of holding | +6.6% | −20.9% | 1,167,559 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | McDonough Claire | director | Sale | 8,039 @ $18.00 | $145K | −1.1% of holding | +6.8% | −15.4% | 730,017 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-02 | McDonough Claire | director | Sale | 21,210 @ $17.14 | $363K | −2.8% of holding | +12.1% | −6.6% | 738,056 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Scaringe Robert J | director | Sale | 17,450 @ $15.11 | $264K | −1.5% of holding | +31.8% | −7.9% | 1,185,009 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Scaringe Robert J | director | Sale | 52,350 @ $16.60 | $869K | −4.0% of holding | −9.7% | −29.6% | 1,246,405 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | Scaringe Robert J | director | Sale | 17,450 @ $15.14 | $264K | −1.3% of holding | −9.8% | +2.9% | 1,298,755 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Scaringe Robert J | director | Sale | 17,450 @ $14.00 | $244K | −1.3% of holding | −7.4% | +7.7% | 1,316,205 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Scaringe Robert J | director | Sale | 17,450 @ $14.00 | $244K | −1.3% of holding | −9.1% | +7.3% | 1,333,655 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | McDonough Claire | director | Sale | 7,247 @ $12.28 | $89K | −0.9% of holding | +11.2% | +22.8% | 789,445 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Scaringe Robert J | director | Sale | 71,428 @ $15.36 | $1.1M | −4.6% of holding | −15.9% | −21.3% | 1,483,111 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-16 | McDonough Claire | director | Sale | 17,185 @ $15.39 | $264K | −2.0% of holding | −15.9% | −18.2% | 824,875 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Scaringe Robert J | director | Sale | 107,144 @ $15.25 | $1.6M | −6.7% of holding | −12.1% | −7.3% | 1,483,111 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | McDonough Claire | director | Sale | 9,937 @ $15.00 | $149K | −1.2% of holding | −9.3% | +4.1% | 851,637 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-21 | Scaringe Robert J | director | Sale | 35,713 @ $11.46 | $409K | −4.0% of holding | +36.4% | −14.1% | 853,011 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-07 | Scaringe Robert J | director | Sale | 71,429 @ $11.25 | $804K | −7.7% of holding | +2.2% | −15.1% | 853,011 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | Scaringe Robert J | director | Sale | 71,429 @ $11.82 | $844K | −7.7% of holding | +3.5% | +11.2% | 853,011 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Scaringe Robert J | director | Sale | 71,429 @ $11.25 | $804K | −7.7% of holding | +9.5% | +7.9% | 853,011 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-19 | McDonough Claire | director | Sale | 3,915 @ $14.27 | $56K | −1.2% of holding | −14.2% | −18.1% | 335,076 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-19 | McDonough Claire | director | Sale | 2,941 @ $14.25 | $42K | −0.9% of holding | −14.2% | −18.1% | 338,991 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-21 | Scaringe Robert J | director | Sale | 35,713 @ $13.76 | $491K | −4.0% of holding | +1.2% | −0.3% | 863,361 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-23 | Scaringe Robert J | director | Sale | 71,429 @ $13.88 | $991K | −7.6% of holding | −7.3% | −5.1% | 863,361 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | McDonough Claire | director | Sale | 18,501 @ $15.00 | $278K | −5.0% of holding | −6.2% | −10.4% | 351,900 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-12 | Scaringe Robert J | director | Sale | 71,429 @ $13.65 | $975K | −7.6% of holding | −0.3% | −5.2% | 863,361 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-04-17 | FLATLEY JAY T | director | Purchase | 1,250 @ $8.84 | $11K | +0.8% of holding | +10.3% | +0.1% | 162,070 | Form 4 · filed 687 days after the trade |
| 2023-10-23 | FLATLEY JAY T | director | Sale | 490 @ $17.07 | $8K | −0.3% of holding | −15.7% | −69.3% | 160,820 | Form 4 · filed 864 days after the trade |
| 2023-07-06 | FLATLEY JAY T | director | Purchase | 490 @ $20.67 | $10K | +0.3% of holding | +15.2% | −16.9% | 161,310 | Form 4 · filed 973 days after the trade |
| 2022-12-13 | FLATLEY JAY T | director | Sale | 57 @ $25.75 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | −33.7% | −50.0% | 160,820 | Form 4 · filed 1178 days after the trade |
| 2022-12-13 | FLATLEY JAY T | director | Sale | 3 @ $24.99 | $75 | −0.0% of holding | −33.7% | −50.0% | 160,877 | Form 4 · filed 1178 days after the trade |
| 2022-05-13 | FLATLEY JAY T | director | Purchase | 60 @ $26.83 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | +9.2% | +30.7% | 160,880 | Form 4 · filed 1392 days after the trade |
| 2022-01-26 | FLATLEY JAY T | director | Sale | 30 @ $62.22 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | +4.2% | −38.2% | 160,820 | Form 4 · filed 1499 days after the trade |
| 2022-01-11 | FLATLEY JAY T | director | Purchase | 30 @ $82.84 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | −18.2% | −44.1% | 160,850 | Form 4 · filed 1514 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
117 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Scaringe Robert J | director | Withheld for tax | 44,033 | 878,253 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | CALLAHAN MICHAEL JOHN | director | Withheld for tax | 42,082 | 1,031,776 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | McDonough Claire | director | Withheld for tax | 38,640 | 840,345 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Venkataratnam Sreela | officer | Withheld for tax | 20,297 | 564,599 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Gomez Aidan N. | director | Withheld for tax | 343 | 63,177 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Schwartz Sanford Harold | director | Award / grant | 1,192 | 213,002 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Krawiec Peter | director | Award / grant | 884 | 27,558 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Gomez Aidan N. | director | Award / grant | 769 | 63,520 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Krafcik John | director | Award / grant | 1,192 | 79,393 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Gomez Aidan N. | director | Award / grant | 17,445 | 62,751 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Schwartz Sanford Harold | director | Award / grant | 17,445 | 211,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Krawiec Peter | director | Award / grant | 17,445 | 26,674 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | FLATLEY JAY T | director | Award / grant | 17,445 | 179,515 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Krafcik John | director | Award / grant | 17,445 | 78,201 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Boone Karen | director | Award / grant | 17,445 | 115,794 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Gomez Aidan N. | director | Withheld for tax | 8,926 | 45,306 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Venkataratnam Sreela | officer | Award / grant | 2,756 | 584,896 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | CALLAHAN MICHAEL JOHN | director | Award / grant | 1,682 | 1,073,858 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Scaringe Robert J | director | Withheld for tax | 44,034 | 957,104 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | CALLAHAN MICHAEL JOHN | director | Withheld for tax | 42,082 | 1,072,176 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | McDonough Claire | director | Withheld for tax | 38,640 | 908,174 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Venkataratnam Sreela | officer | Withheld for tax | 17,486 | 582,140 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Gomez Aidan N. | director | Withheld for tax | 3,752 | 54,232 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Gomez Aidan N. | director | Withheld for tax | 406 | 39,984 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Gomez Aidan N. | director | Award / grant | 810 | 40,390 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Krafcik John | director | Award / grant | 1,255 | 60,756 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Krawiec Peter | director | Award / grant | 897 | 9,229 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Schwartz Sanford Harold | director | Award / grant | 1,255 | 194,365 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Venkataratnam Sreela | officer | Award / grant | 115,588 | 599,626 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | CALLAHAN MICHAEL JOHN | director | Award / grant | 528,402 | 528,402 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | McDonough Claire | director | Award / grant | 264,201 | 957,059 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | McDonough Claire | director | Award / grant | 528,402 | 528,402 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | CALLAHAN MICHAEL JOHN | director | Award / grant | 264,201 | 1,114,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Scaringe Robert J | director | Withheld for tax | 34,202 | 1,060,298 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | McDonough Claire | director | Withheld for tax | 12,453 | 692,858 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | CALLAHAN MICHAEL JOHN | director | Withheld for tax | 12,453 | 850,057 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Venkataratnam Sreela | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,535 | 484,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | McDonough Claire | director | Award / grant | 24,475 | 705,311 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Venkataratnam Sreela | officer | Award / grant | 9,852 | 487,573 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Scaringe Robert J | director | Award / grant | 67,219 | 1,094,500 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.