RITM · TickerCove

RITMRithm Capital Corp.Financial Services · Financial - Diversifiedas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $9.48 · now $9.48 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RITM has typically landed between $8.43 and $10.59 — a range of −11.1% to +11.7% from the issuance price $9.48.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,343 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-05-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($9.48) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$9.48 · 38% of range

$8.31 low$11.43 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.2%

typical move · IQR 9.0%

−11.1%worst (p90)+11.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where RITM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $9.48 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $9.48 (+0.0%)
typical $9.59 (+1.2%)
middle 50% $9.17–$10.02
90% range $8.43–$10.59

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,343 windows spanning 2013-05-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-03-05	−79.3%	−79.3%	+0.0%
2020-03-06	−78.2%	−78.8%	+0.0%
2020-03-04	−74.1%	−74.1%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-04-03	+97.3%	+0.0%	+98.4%
2020-04-06	+79.8%	+0.0%	+93.1%
2020-04-07	+59.9%	+0.0%	+67.3%

3,343 overlapping windows · 2013-05-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

46%

+1.6%

n=13

Feb

54%

+1.5%

n=13

Mar

69%

−3.6%

n=13

Apr

54%

+3.1%

n=13

May

54%

+2.2%

n=13

Jun

64%

+0.5%

n=14

Jul

79%

+4.4%

n=14

Aug

57%

−0.6%

n=14

Sep

36%

−2.5%

n=14

Oct

62%

+2.2%

n=13

Nov

69%

+4.0%

n=13

Dec

62%

+1.8%

n=13

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-20	Hebard Peggy Hwan	director	Sale	14,520 @ $10.18	$148K	−15.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	82,259	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-20	Saltzman David	director	Sale	66,748 @ $9.26	$618K	−60.1% of holding	−2.0%	not yet — horizon still open	44,248	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-20	Saltzman David	director	Sale	14,174 @ $9.19	$130K	−11.3% of holding	−2.0%	not yet — horizon still open	110,996	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-27	Zeiden David	officer	Sale	9,217 @ $10.11	$93K	−100.0% of holding	−1.0%	−7.0%	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-14	Zeiden David	officer	Sale	19,285 @ $11.11	$214K	−100.0% of holding	−1.8%	−24.9%	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-05	Nierenberg Michael	director	Sale	301,548 @ $11.00	$3.3M	−100.0% of holding	+0.8%	−16.5%	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

106 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-31	SANTORO NICOLA JR	officer	Award / grant	2,148	86,965	Form 4
2026-07-31	Nierenberg Michael	director	Award / grant	51,262	2,075,110	Form 4
2026-07-31	Nierenberg Michael	director	Award / grant	4,761	284,351	Form 4
2026-07-31	Nierenberg Michael	director	Award / grant	21,423	867,221	Form 4
2026-07-31	Nierenberg Michael	director	Award / grant	7,365	298,167	Form 4
2026-07-31	SANTORO NICOLA JR	officer	Award / grant	529	60,569	Form 4
2026-07-31	SANTORO NICOLA JR	officer	Award / grant	2,119	85,798	Form 4
2026-07-31	SANTORO NICOLA JR	officer	Award / grant	833	49,759	Form 4
2026-07-31	SANTORO NICOLA JR	officer	Award / grant	833	33,721	Form 4
2026-07-31	Nierenberg Michael	director	Award / grant	2,848	325,538	Form 4
2026-05-26	Finnerty Kevin J	director	Award / grant	16,739	325,812	Form 4
2026-05-26	Hebard Peggy Hwan	director	Award / grant	17,279	96,779	Form 4
2026-05-26	Kripalani Ranjit M	director	Award / grant	16,739	30,666	Form 4
2026-05-26	Le Melle Patrice M	director	Award / grant	16,199	70,523	Form 4
2026-05-26	Saltzman David	director	Award / grant	17,279	61,527	Form 4
2026-05-26	Addas William Dean	director	Award / grant	16,199	44,972	Form 4
2026-04-30	SANTORO NICOLA JR	officer	Award / grant	2,114	84,817	Form 4
2026-04-30	Nierenberg Michael	director	Award / grant	2,802	322,690	Form 4
2026-04-30	Nierenberg Michael	director	Award / grant	50,444	2,023,848	Form 4
2026-04-30	Nierenberg Michael	director	Award / grant	21,081	845,798	Form 4
2026-04-30	Nierenberg Michael	director	Award / grant	7,248	290,802	Form 4
2026-04-30	SANTORO NICOLA JR	officer	Award / grant	521	60,040	Form 4
2026-04-30	SANTORO NICOLA JR	officer	Award / grant	2,085	83,679	Form 4
2026-04-30	SANTORO NICOLA JR	officer	Award / grant	819	48,926	Form 4
2026-04-30	SANTORO NICOLA JR	officer	Award / grant	820	32,888	Form 4
2026-04-30	Nierenberg Michael	director	Award / grant	4,685	279,590	Form 4
2026-02-27	Zeiden David	officer	Option exercise	9,217	9,217	Form 4
2026-02-27	Zeiden David	officer	Option exercise	9,217	11,808	Form 4
2026-02-21	Nierenberg Michael	director	Withheld for tax	771,688	1,445,798	Form 4
2026-02-21	SANTORO NICOLA JR	officer	Withheld for tax	100,886	181,281	Form 4
2026-02-20	Nierenberg Michael	director	Award / grant	283,554	283,554	Form 4
2026-02-20	SANTORO NICOLA JR	officer	Award / grant	82,703	82,703	Form 4
2026-02-20	Zeiden David	officer	Award / grant	30,718	30,718	Form 4
2026-01-30	Zeiden David	officer	Award / grant	313	15,270	Form 4
2026-01-30	Nierenberg Michael	director	Award / grant	16,941	824,717	Form 4
2026-01-30	SANTORO NICOLA JR	officer	Award / grant	4,156	282,167	Form 4
2026-01-30	SANTORO NICOLA JR	officer	Award / grant	838	59,519	Form 4
2026-01-30	SANTORO NICOLA JR	officer	Award / grant	1,675	81,594	Form 4
2026-01-30	SANTORO NICOLA JR	officer	Award / grant	988	48,107	Form 4
2026-01-30	SANTORO NICOLA JR	officer	Award / grant	658	32,068	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i