RIGTransocean Ltd.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.54 · now $5.54 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RIG has typically landed between $4.32 and $7.27 — a range of −22.1% to +31.3% from the issuance price $5.54.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.54) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where RIG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.54 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$4.32worst · -22.1%$7.27best · +31.3%
  • now $5.54 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.56 (+0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.96–$6.17
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.32–$7.27
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-20−75.8%−75.8%+0.0%
2020-02-18−74.8%−74.8%+0.0%
2020-02-19−73.8%−74.3%+0.0%
3 best
2020-10-30+201.5%+0.0%+223.9%
2020-05-07+197.6%+0.0%+197.6%
2020-11-02+190.3%+0.0%+201.4%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+8.2%
n=18
Feb
47%
−1.1%
n=19
Mar
53%
−0.2%
n=19
Apr
42%
−1.1%
n=19
May
53%
−1.0%
n=19
Jun
53%
+0.9%
n=19
Jul
47%
+0.1%
n=19
Aug
32%
−5.0%
n=19
Sep
42%
−2.2%
n=19
Oct
44%
+1.0%
n=18
Nov
56%
+8.2%
n=18
Dec
33%
−2.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$8$32026-07-02: 1 insider purchase, $173K — DEATON CHAD C2026-05-21: 1 insider sale, $609K — Long Brady K2026-03-04: 1 insider sale, $498K — Mackenzie Roderick James2026-01-27: 2 insider sales, $790K — Long Brady K, Adamson Keelan2026-01-26: 2 insider sales, $195K — Adamson Keelan, Long Brady K2025-12-05: 1 insider sale, $261K — Adamson Keelan2025-12-04: 1 insider sale, $38K — Adamson Keelan2025-12-03: 1 insider sale, $157K — Mackenzie Roderick James2025-11-26: 2 insider sales, $2.3M — THIGPEN JEREMY D, Vayda Robert Thaddeus2025-11-24: 3 insider purchases, $18.1M — Mohn Frederik Wilhelm, Perestroika (Cyprus) Ltd, Perestroika2025-10-31: 1 insider sale, $208K — Mackenzie Roderick James2025-10-24: 2 insider sales, $552K — Long Brady K, Adamson Keelan2025-09-26: 3 insider purchases, $36.6M — Mohn Frederik Wilhelm, Perestroika (Cyprus) Ltd, Perestroika2025-09: 3 open-market purchases, $36.6M2025-10: 3 open-market sales, $760K2025-11: 3 open-market purchases, $18.1M2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $2.3M2025-12: 3 open-market sales, $456K2026-01: 4 open-market sales, $985K2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $498K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $609K2026-07: 1 open-market purchase, $173K↑ buys↓ salesdirector DEATON CHAD C — Purchase on 2026-07-02, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Long Brady K — Sale on 2026-05-21, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Mackenzie Roderick James — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Long Brady K — Sale on 2026-01-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Adamson Keelan — Sale on 2026-01-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Adamson Keelan — Sale on 2026-01-26, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Long Brady K — Sale on 2026-01-26, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Adamson Keelan — Sale on 2025-12-05, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Adamson Keelan — Sale on 2025-12-04, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Mackenzie Roderick James — Sale on 2025-12-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector THIGPEN JEREMY D — Sale on 2025-11-26, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Vayda Robert Thaddeus — Sale on 2025-11-26, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Mohn Frederik Wilhelm — Purchase on 2025-11-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Perestroika (Cyprus) Ltd — Purchase on 2025-11-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Perestroika — Purchase on 2025-11-24, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Mackenzie Roderick James — Sale on 2025-10-31, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Long Brady K — Sale on 2025-10-24, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Adamson Keelan — Sale on 2025-10-24, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Mohn Frederik Wilhelm — Purchase on 2025-09-26, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Perestroika (Cyprus) Ltd — Purchase on 2025-09-26, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Perestroika — Purchase on 2025-09-26, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-02DEATON CHAD CdirectorPurchase35,000 @ $4.95$173K+17.3% of holding+12.2%not yet — horizon still open237,421Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-21Long Brady KofficerSale81,741 @ $7.45$609K−6.8% of holding−21.5%not yet — horizon still open1,125,438Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-04Mackenzie Roderick JamesofficerSale78,370 @ $6.36$498K−22.6% of holding+7.5%not yet — horizon still open268,025Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-27Long Brady KofficerSale99,293 @ $5.00$496K−8.7% of holding+29.5%+3.9%1,046,031Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-27Adamson KeelandirectorSale58,687 @ $5.00$293K−4.6% of holding+29.5%+3.9%1,222,182Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-26Adamson KeelandirectorSale22,846 @ $5.00$114K−1.8% of holding+30.5%+3.6%1,280,869Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-26Long Brady KofficerSale16,085 @ $5.00$80K−1.4% of holding+30.5%+3.6%1,145,324Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-05Adamson KeelandirectorSale57,968 @ $4.50$261K−4.3% of holding−6.0%+24.1%1,303,715Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-04Adamson KeelandirectorSale8,469 @ $4.50$38K−0.6% of holding−3.6%+30.7%1,361,683Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-03Mackenzie Roderick JamesofficerSale35,000 @ $4.48$157K−14.2% of holding−4.0%+25.2%212,072Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-26THIGPEN JEREMY DdirectorSale500,000 @ $4.32$2.2M−19.0% of holding−6.9%+33.1%2,136,223Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-26Vayda Robert ThaddeusofficerSale30,000 @ $4.29$129K−11.3% of holding−6.9%+33.1%235,154Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-24Mohn Frederik WilhelmdirectorPurchase1,500,000 @ $4.02$6.0M+1.6% of holding−3.8%+41.2%96,574,894Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-24Perestroika (Cyprus) LtddirectorPurchase1,500,000 @ $4.02$6.0M+1.6% of holding−3.8%+41.2%96,574,894Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-24PerestroikadirectorPurchase1,500,000 @ $4.02$6.0M+1.6% of holding−3.8%+41.2%96,574,894Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-31Mackenzie Roderick JamesofficerSale53,769 @ $3.86$208K−17.9% of holding+12.3%+56.0%247,072Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-24Long Brady KofficerSale97,090 @ $4.00$388K−7.7% of holding+4.3%+68.4%1,161,409Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-24Adamson KeelandirectorSale40,942 @ $4.00$164K−2.9% of holding+4.3%+68.4%1,370,152Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-26Mohn Frederik WilhelmdirectorPurchase4,000,000 @ $3.05$12.2M+4.4% of holding+17.5%+112.4%95,074,894Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-26Perestroika (Cyprus) LtddirectorPurchase4,000,000 @ $3.05$12.2M+4.4% of holding+17.5%+112.4%95,074,894Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-26PerestroikadirectorPurchase4,000,000 @ $3.05$12.2M+4.4% of holding+17.5%+112.4%95,074,894Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-13Mackenzie Roderick JamesofficerSale40,000 @ $3.26$130K−11.7% of holding−28.1%+9.5%300,841Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-12Mackenzie Roderick JamesofficerSale22,000 @ $2.78$61K−6.1% of holding+12.4%+34.1%340,841Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-30CHANG VANESSA C LdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $2.14$21K+20.3% of holding+10.6%+55.1%59,200Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-11Mackenzie Roderick JamesofficerSale22,000 @ $2.23$49K−5.7% of holding+10.9%+16.7%362,841Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-11Mackenzie Roderick JamesofficerSale22,000 @ $2.94$65K−5.4% of holding−17.0%−7.8%384,841Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-11Mackenzie Roderick JamesofficerSale22,000 @ $3.85$85K−6.6% of holding−17.5%−29.4%313,072Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-10Mackenzie Roderick JamesofficerSale22,000 @ $4.05$89K−8.7% of holding−8.2%−42.3%229,596Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-12Mackenzie Roderick JamesofficerSale22,000 @ $3.95$87K−8.0% of holding+10.2%−18.0%251,596Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

117 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-26Mohn Frederik WilhelmdirectorWithheld for tax25,59778,904Form 4
2026-05-26Lacey William F.directorWithheld for tax20,93461,419Form 4
2026-05-26DEATON CHAD CdirectorWithheld for tax20,932202,421Form 4
2026-05-22Lacey William F.directorOption exercise82,35382,353Form 4
2026-05-22Mohn Frederik WilhelmdirectorOption exercise82,353104,501Form 4
2026-05-22DEATON CHAD CdirectorOption exercise82,353223,353Form 4
2026-05-22Lacey William F.directorAward / grant30,43530,435Form 4
2026-05-22MERKSAMER SAMUEL J.directorAward / grant30,43530,435Form 4
2026-05-22Barker Glyn AnthonydirectorAward / grant30,43530,435Form 4
2026-05-22DEATON CHAD CdirectorAward / grant30,43530,435Form 4
2026-05-22DELL'OSSO DOMENIC J JRdirectorAward / grant30,43530,435Form 4
2026-05-22INTRIERI VINCENT JdirectorAward / grant30,43530,435Form 4
2026-05-22CHANG VANESSA C LdirectorAward / grant30,43530,435Form 4
2026-05-22Mohn Frederik WilhelmdirectorAward / grant30,43530,435Form 4
2026-05-22Curado Frederico F.directorAward / grant30,43530,435Form 4
2026-05-04Adamson KeelandirectorWithheld for tax71,5561,600,884Form 4
2026-05-01Adamson KeelandirectorOption exercise180,9311,672,440Form 4
2026-03-03THIGPEN JEREMY DdirectorWithheld for tax245,5562,614,548Form 4
2026-03-03Adamson KeelandirectorWithheld for tax127,8781,491,509Form 4
2026-03-03Long Brady KofficerWithheld for tax87,6891,238,098Form 4
2026-03-03Vayda Robert ThaddeusofficerWithheld for tax62,970352,635Form 4
2026-03-03Mackenzie Roderick JamesofficerWithheld for tax62,886346,395Form 4
2026-03-03Pack JasonofficerWithheld for tax27,962262,103Form 4
2026-03-01THIGPEN JEREMY DdirectorOption exercise245,6402,688,283Form 4
2026-03-01THIGPEN JEREMY DdirectorOption exercise193,5182,442,643Form 4
2026-03-01THIGPEN JEREMY DdirectorOption exercise171,8212,860,104Form 4
2026-03-01Adamson KeelandirectorOption exercise146,0481,619,387Form 4
2026-03-01Adamson KeelandirectorOption exercise104,3971,473,339Form 4
2026-03-01Long Brady KofficerOption exercise98,4061,325,787Form 4
2026-03-01Vayda Robert ThaddeusofficerOption exercise93,964415,605Form 4
2026-03-01Mackenzie Roderick JamesofficerOption exercise70,876409,281Form 4
2026-03-01Adamson KeelandirectorOption exercise67,7311,368,942Form 4
2026-03-01Long Brady KofficerOption exercise66,9931,227,381Form 4
2026-03-01Long Brady KofficerOption exercise52,7781,160,388Form 4
2026-03-01Mackenzie Roderick JamesofficerOption exercise50,663338,405Form 4
2026-03-01Mackenzie Roderick JamesofficerOption exercise34,924287,742Form 4
2026-03-01Pack JasonofficerOption exercise32,324290,065Form 4
2026-03-01Vayda Robert ThaddeusofficerOption exercise22,837299,761Form 4
2026-03-01Vayda Robert ThaddeusofficerOption exercise21,880321,641Form 4
2026-03-01Pack JasonofficerOption exercise19,210254,840Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2020-04-202020-03-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2019-09-112019-08-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2019-07-112019-06-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2019-07-112019-06-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2017-08-102017-07-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2017-03-142017-02-27$1–15K
Thomas R. CarperSenatepurchase2014-03-062014-02-27$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.