Issued 2026-09-16 at $27.95 · now $27.95 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RICK has typically landed between $23.62 and $33.10 — a range of −15.5% to +18.4% from the issuance price $27.95.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($27.95) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RICK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $27.95 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $27.95 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $27.24 (-2.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $25.42–$29.06
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $23.62–$33.1
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −71.1% | −71.1% | +6.1% |
| 2020-02-14 | −67.8% | −67.8% | +5.5% |
| 2020-02-21 | −67.4% | −71.6% | +4.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-05 | +120.0% | −6.5% | +120.0% |
| 2007-11-26 | +100.4% | +0.0% | +100.4% |
| 2007-11-23 | +99.0% | +0.0% | +99.0% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Elaine Johnson Martin | director | Purchase | 601 @ $28.95 | $17K | +5.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 12,352 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | LANGAN ERIC SCOTT | director | Purchase | 1,630 @ $30.80 | $50K | +0.2% of holding | −5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 708,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Barabash Yura V | director | Purchase | 888 @ $27.29 | $24K | +77.3% of holding | +4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,037 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | LANGAN ERIC SCOTT | director | Purchase | 725 @ $36.77 | $27K | +0.1% of holding | −31.4% | −43.8% | 705,725 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-18 | LANGAN ERIC SCOTT | director | Purchase | 645 @ $36.71 | $24K | +0.1% of holding | −31.4% | −43.8% | 706,370 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-22 | LANGAN ERIC SCOTT | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $39.83 | $40K | +0.1% of holding | −3.6% | −56.6% | 705,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Elaine Johnson Martin | director | Purchase | 106 @ $44.00 | $5K | +0.9% of holding | −12.9% | −40.7% | 11,751 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | Elaine Johnson Martin | director | Purchase | 266 @ $47.00 | $13K | +2.3% of holding | −3.8% | −36.6% | 11,645 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-14 | Elaine Johnson Martin | director | Purchase | 195 @ $51.00 | $10K | +1.7% of holding | −4.7% | −36.1% | 11,379 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-12 | LANGAN ERIC SCOTT | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $50.54 | $51K | +0.1% of holding | −3.2% | −32.0% | 704,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-30 | Elaine Johnson Martin | director | Purchase | 26 @ $57.36 | $1K | +0.2% of holding | −5.9% | −35.5% | 11,184 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.