RHLD · TickerCove

RHLDResolute Holdings Management, Inc.Industrials · Specialty Business Servicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $119.87 · now $119.87 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RHLD has typically landed between $85.03 and $177.32 — a range of −29.1% to +47.9% from the issuance price $119.87.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

371 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-02-24 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($119.87) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$119.87 · 33% of range

$66.28 low$226.37 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+3.3%

typical move · IQR 31.8%

−29.1%worst (p90)+47.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where RHLD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $119.87 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $119.87 (+0.0%)
typical $123.8 (+3.3%)
middle 50% $104.76–$142.84
90% range $85.03–$177.32

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 371 windows spanning 2025-02-24 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2026-02-10	−43.3%	−43.3%	+0.0%
2026-02-11	−41.7%	−41.7%	+0.2%
2025-03-03	−40.6%	−40.6%	+0.0%
3 best
2025-10-31	+160.2%	+0.0%	+160.2%
2025-10-10	+146.5%	−0.9%	+146.5%
2025-10-27	+145.8%	−3.3%	+145.8%

371 overlapping windows · 2025-02-24 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

−1.2%

n=1

Feb

−17.4%

n=1

Mar

−18.4%

n=2

Apr

−15.0%

n=2

May

50%

+7.5%

n=2

Jun

50%

+7.1%

n=2

Jul

50%

+6.4%

n=2

Aug

100%

+36.3%

n=2

Sep

50%

−1.2%

n=2

Oct

100%

+2.1%

n=1

Nov

100%

+141.2%

n=1

Dec

100%

+16.2%

n=1

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-20	Schoen Kurt	officer	Purchase	375 @ $117.84	$44K	+13.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	3,225	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-14	Mikkilineni Krishna	director	Purchase	921 @ $108.52	$100K	+411.3% of holding	+22.4%	not yet — horizon still open	1,145	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-13	Schoen Kurt	officer	Purchase	450 @ $108.34	$49K	+18.8% of holding	+24.5%	not yet — horizon still open	2,850	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-17	THOMPSON JANE J.	director	Sale	1,850 @ $124.42	$230K	−22.8% of holding	−3.9%	−30.7%	6,273	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17	Schoen Kurt	officer	Purchase	500 @ $141.51	$71K	+26.3% of holding	−3.9%	−30.7%	2,400	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17	Cote John D.	director	Purchase	261 @ $141.66	$37K	ownership Δ n/a	−3.9%	−30.7%	261	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17	Cote John D.	director	Purchase	239 @ $142.50	$34K	+91.6% of holding	−3.9%	−30.7%	500	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17	Cote John D.	director	Purchase	52 @ $144.50	$8K	+10.4% of holding	−3.9%	−30.7%	552	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-18	Mahoney Timothy O.	director	Purchase	3,268 @ $152.98	$500K	+55.0% of holding	+24.2%	−43.7%	9,207	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-18	Schoen Kurt	officer	Purchase	900 @ $149.23	$134K	+90.0% of holding	+24.2%	−43.7%	1,900	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-07	Mahoney Timothy O.	director	Purchase	2,234 @ $168.95	$377K	+124.4% of holding	+17.1%	−49.1%	4,030	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-07	Mahoney Timothy O.	director	Purchase	1,512 @ $170.08	$257K	+37.5% of holding	+17.1%	−49.1%	5,542	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-07	Schoen Kurt	officer	Purchase	1,000 @ $164.95	$165K	ownership Δ n/a	+17.1%	−49.1%	1,000	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-07	Mahoney Timothy O.	director	Purchase	876 @ $167.83	$147K	+95.2% of holding	+17.1%	−49.1%	1,796	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-07	Mahoney Timothy O.	director	Purchase	397 @ $170.94	$68K	+7.2% of holding	+17.1%	−49.1%	5,939	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-07	Mahoney Timothy O.	director	Purchase	364 @ $166.72	$61K	+65.5% of holding	+17.1%	−49.1%	920	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-07	Mahoney Timothy O.	director	Purchase	350 @ $162.23	$57K	ownership Δ n/a	+17.1%	−49.1%	350	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-07	Mahoney Timothy O.	director	Purchase	115 @ $164.23	$19K	+32.9% of holding	+17.1%	−49.1%	465	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-07	Mahoney Timothy O.	director	Purchase	91 @ $165.26	$15K	+19.6% of holding	+17.1%	−49.1%	556	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

61 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-11	FRADIN ROGER	director	Award / grant	1,452	1,452	Form 4
2026-06-11	Galant Paul	director	Award / grant	1,452	1,452	Form 4
2026-06-11	Cote John D.	director	Award / grant	1,452	1,452	Form 4
2026-06-11	Hewett Wayne M.	director	Award / grant	3,630	3,630	Form 4
2026-06-11	Hewett Wayne M.	director	Award / grant	726	726	Form 4
2026-06-11	Hughes Brian F.	director	Award / grant	1,452	1,452	Form 4
2026-06-11	James Mark R.	director	Award / grant	1,452	1,452	Form 4
2026-06-11	Mahoney Timothy O.	director	Award / grant	3,630	3,630	Form 4
2026-06-11	Mahoney Timothy O.	director	Award / grant	726	726	Form 4
2026-06-11	Mikkilineni Krishna	director	Award / grant	1,452	1,452	Form 4
2026-06-11	THOMPSON JANE J.	director	Award / grant	1,452	1,452	Form 4
2026-06-11	DEANGELO JOSEPH J	director	Award / grant	1,452	1,452	Form 4
2025-07-17	Hewett Wayne M.	director	Award / grant	2,185	2,185	Form 4
2025-07-17	Hewett Wayne M.	director	Award / grant	2,185	2,185	Form 4
2025-07-16	Mahoney Timothy O.	director	Award / grant	2,449	2,449	Form 4
2025-07-16	Mahoney Timothy O.	director	Award / grant	2,449	2,449	Form 4
2025-07-12	Mahoney Timothy O.	director	Award / grant	21,731	21,731	Form 4
2025-07-12	Hewett Wayne M.	director	Award / grant	21,731	21,731	Form 4
2025-05-28	FRADIN ROGER	director	Award / grant	5,603	5,603	Form 4
2025-05-28	Hughes Brian F.	director	Award / grant	5,603	5,603	Form 4
2025-05-28	Cote John D.	director	Award / grant	5,603	5,603	Form 4
2025-05-28	DEANGELO JOSEPH J	director	Award / grant	5,603	5,603	Form 4
2025-05-28	Galant Paul	director	Award / grant	5,603	5,603	Form 4
2025-05-28	THOMPSON JANE J.	director	Award / grant	5,603	5,603	Form 4
2025-05-28	James Mark R.	director	Award / grant	5,603	5,603	Form 4
2025-05-28	Mikkilineni Krishna	director	Award / grant	5,603	5,603	Form 4
2025-03-17	Resolute ManCo Holdings LLC	director	Other acquisition	4,107,534	0	Form 4
2025-03-17	Resolute ManCo Holdings LLC	director	Other acquisition	4,107,534	0	Form 4
2025-03-17	Resolute ManCo Holdings LLC	director	Other acquisition	4,107,534	4,107,534	Form 4
2025-03-17	Resolute ManCo Holdings LLC	director	Other acquisition	4,107,534	4,107,534	Form 4
2025-03-17	Resolute ManCo Holdings LLC	director	Other acquisition	4,107,534	0	Form 4
2025-03-17	Resolute ManCo Holdings LLC	director	Other acquisition	4,107,534	4,107,534	Form 4
2025-02-28	CompoSecure, Inc.	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	8,525,994	0	Form 4
2025-02-28	DEANGELO JOSEPH J	director	Award / grant	2,064	2,064	Form 4
2025-02-28	Cote John D.	director	Award / grant	2,064	2,064	Form 4
2025-02-28	FRADIN ROGER	director	Award / grant	2,064	2,064	Form 4
2025-02-28	James Mark R.	director	Award / grant	2,064	2,064	Form 4
2025-02-28	Galant Paul	director	Award / grant	2,064	2,064	Form 4
2025-02-28	Hughes Brian F.	director	Award / grant	2,064	2,064	Form 4
2025-02-28	Mikkilineni Krishna	director	Award / grant	2,064	2,064	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i