RHRhConsumer Cyclical · Specialty Retailas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $126.52 · now $126.52 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RH has typically landed between $95.32 and $158.99 — a range of −24.7% to +25.7% from the issuance price $126.52.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,466 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-11-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($126.52) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where RH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $126.52 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$95.32worst · -24.7%$158.99best · +25.7%
  • now $126.52 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $124.52 (-1.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $110.22–$138.83
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $95.32–$158.99
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,466 windows spanning 2012-11-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−67.7%−67.7%+0.0%
2020-02-20−66.6%−66.9%+0.0%
2020-02-21−66.0%−66.0%+0.0%
3 best
2020-05-01+80.6%+0.0%+80.6%
2020-05-04+79.4%+0.0%+79.4%
2020-05-05+73.4%+0.0%+78.2%

3,466 overlapping windows · 2012-11-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−2.1%
n=14
Feb
50%
−2.9%
n=14
Mar
50%
−1.6%
n=14
Apr
64%
+0.3%
n=14
May
57%
+5.6%
n=14
Jun
79%
+13.9%
n=14
Jul
71%
+7.0%
n=14
Aug
57%
−0.5%
n=14
Sep
43%
+2.0%
n=14
Oct
46%
−1.5%
n=13
Nov
77%
+9.6%
n=13
Dec
43%
−2.3%
n=14

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$251$1132026-07-10: 2 insider sales, $412K — DEMILIO MARK S …2026-07-08: 7 insider sales, $7.7M — FRIEDMAN GARY G …2026-07-07: 2 insider sales, $1.3M — FRIEDMAN GARY G …2026-07-06: 2 insider sales, $11.7M — FRIEDMAN GARY G …2026-06-29: 3 insider purchases, $1.8M — ALBERINI CARLOS …2026-06-18: 1 insider sale, $447K — DEMILIO MARK S2026-06-16: 1 insider sale, $330K — DEMILIO MARK S2026-03-31: 6 insider sales, $1.5M — Chaya Eri …2026-03-24: 4 insider sales, $906K — Chaya Eri …2026-03-17: 3 insider sales, $947K — Chaya Eri …2026-01-14: 1 insider sale, $496K — DEMILIO MARK S2026-01-13: 1 insider sale, $440K — DEMILIO MARK S2025-12-31: 1 insider sale, $72K — DEMILIO MARK S2025-12-30: 1 insider sale, $92K — DEMILIO MARK S2025-09-19: 1 insider sale, $472K — DEMILIO MARK S2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $472K2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $164K2026-01: 2 open-market sales, $936K2026-03: 13 open-market sales, $3.4M2026-06: 3 open-market purchases, $1.8M2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $777K2026-07: 13 open-market sales, $21.1M↑ buys↓ salesdirector DEMILIO MARK S — Sale on 2026-07-10, filed 3 days after the tradedirector DEMILIO MARK S — Sale on 2026-07-10, filed 3 days after the tradedirector FRIEDMAN GARY G — Sale on 2026-07-08, filed same daydirector FRIEDMAN GARY G — Sale on 2026-07-08, filed same daydirector FRIEDMAN GARY G — Sale on 2026-07-08, filed same daydirector FRIEDMAN GARY G — Sale on 2026-07-08, filed same daydirector FRIEDMAN GARY G — Sale on 2026-07-08, filed same daydirector FRIEDMAN GARY G — Sale on 2026-07-08, filed same daydirector FRIEDMAN GARY G — Sale on 2026-07-08, filed same daydirector FRIEDMAN GARY G — Sale on 2026-07-07, filed 1 day after the tradedirector FRIEDMAN GARY G — Sale on 2026-07-07, filed 1 day after the tradedirector FRIEDMAN GARY G — Sale on 2026-07-06, filed 2 days after the tradedirector FRIEDMAN GARY G — Sale on 2026-07-06, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ALBERINI CARLOS — Purchase on 2026-06-29, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ALBERINI CARLOS — Purchase on 2026-06-29, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ALBERINI CARLOS — Purchase on 2026-06-29, filed 2 days after the tradedirector DEMILIO MARK S — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed same daydirector DEMILIO MARK S — Sale on 2026-06-16, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Chaya Eri — Sale on 2026-03-31, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Chaya Eri — Sale on 2026-03-31, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Chaya Eri — Sale on 2026-03-31, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Chaya Eri — Sale on 2026-03-31, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Chaya Eri — Sale on 2026-03-31, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Chaya Eri — Sale on 2026-03-31, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Chaya Eri — Sale on 2026-03-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Chaya Eri — Sale on 2026-03-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Chaya Eri — Sale on 2026-03-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Chaya Eri — Sale on 2026-03-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Chaya Eri — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Chaya Eri — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Chaya Eri — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector DEMILIO MARK S — Sale on 2026-01-14, filed 1 day after the tradedirector DEMILIO MARK S — Sale on 2026-01-13, filed 2 days after the tradedirector DEMILIO MARK S — Sale on 2025-12-31, filed 2 days after the tradedirector DEMILIO MARK S — Sale on 2025-12-30, filed 3 days after the tradedirector DEMILIO MARK S — Sale on 2025-09-19, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-10DEMILIO MARK SdirectorSale1,309 @ $167.95$220K−4.7% of holding+8.6%not yet — horizon still open26,816Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-07-10DEMILIO MARK SdirectorSale1,136 @ $169.00$192K−4.2% of holding+8.6%not yet — horizon still open25,680Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-07-08FRIEDMAN GARY GdirectorSale24,370 @ $159.97$3.9M−0.7% of holding+12.5%not yet — horizon still open3,228,460Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-08FRIEDMAN GARY GdirectorSale6,833 @ $158.92$1.1M−0.2% of holding+12.5%not yet — horizon still open3,252,830Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-08FRIEDMAN GARY GdirectorSale5,897 @ $154.71$912K−0.2% of holding+12.5%not yet — horizon still open3,268,678Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-08FRIEDMAN GARY GdirectorSale5,399 @ $157.92$853K−0.2% of holding+12.5%not yet — horizon still open3,259,663Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-08FRIEDMAN GARY GdirectorSale3,216 @ $155.65$501K−0.1% of holding+12.5%not yet — horizon still open3,265,462Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-08FRIEDMAN GARY GdirectorSale2,123 @ $160.57$341K−0.1% of holding+12.5%not yet — horizon still open3,226,337Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-08FRIEDMAN GARY GdirectorSale400 @ $156.66$63K−0.0% of holding+12.5%not yet — horizon still open3,265,062Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-07FRIEDMAN GARY GdirectorSale7,298 @ $170.06$1.2M−0.2% of holding+16.4%not yet — horizon still open3,274,970Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-07FRIEDMAN GARY GdirectorSale395 @ $171.11$68K−0.0% of holding+16.4%not yet — horizon still open3,274,575Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-06FRIEDMAN GARY GdirectorSale39,271 @ $169.04$6.6M−1.2% of holding+8.7%not yet — horizon still open3,312,066Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-06FRIEDMAN GARY GdirectorSale29,798 @ $170.07$5.1M−0.9% of holding+8.7%not yet — horizon still open3,282,268Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-29ALBERINI CARLOSdirectorPurchase5,586 @ $161.34$901K+21.0% of holding+9.5%not yet — horizon still open32,190Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-29ALBERINI CARLOSdirectorPurchase5,502 @ $160.58$884K+26.1% of holding+9.5%not yet — horizon still open26,604Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-29ALBERINI CARLOSdirectorPurchase300 @ $158.50$48K+1.4% of holding+9.5%not yet — horizon still open21,102Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-18DEMILIO MARK SdirectorSale3,102 @ $144.00$447K−10.7% of holding+21.7%not yet — horizon still open25,830Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-16DEMILIO MARK SdirectorSale2,202 @ $150.00$330K−7.1% of holding+28.6%not yet — horizon still open28,932Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-31Chaya EridirectorSale2,922 @ $139.38$407K−63.2% of holding−16.1%not yet — horizon still open1,700Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-31Chaya EridirectorSale2,000 @ $135.93$272K−20.2% of holding−16.1%not yet — horizon still open7,900Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-31Chaya EridirectorSale1,700 @ $140.02$238K−100.0% of holding−16.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-31Chaya EridirectorSale1,678 @ $138.21$232K−26.6% of holding−16.1%not yet — horizon still open4,622Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-31Chaya EridirectorSale1,600 @ $137.04$219K−20.3% of holding−16.1%not yet — horizon still open6,300Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-31Chaya EridirectorSale1,100 @ $135.27$149K−10.0% of holding−16.1%not yet — horizon still open9,900Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-24Chaya EridirectorSale2,483 @ $128.74$320K−40.2% of holding−1.2%not yet — horizon still open3,695Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-24Chaya EridirectorSale2,177 @ $129.83$283K−58.9% of holding−1.2%not yet — horizon still open1,518Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-24Chaya EridirectorSale1,518 @ $130.74$198K−100.0% of holding−1.2%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-24Chaya EridirectorSale822 @ $127.96$105K−11.7% of holding−1.2%not yet — horizon still open6,178Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17Chaya EridirectorSale3,292 @ $135.70$447K−76.6% of holding−9.8%−20.1%1,008Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17Chaya EridirectorSale2,700 @ $134.50$363K−38.6% of holding−9.8%−20.1%4,300Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17Chaya EridirectorSale1,008 @ $136.40$137K−100.0% of holding−9.8%−20.1%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-14DEMILIO MARK SdirectorSale2,254 @ $220.00$496K−10.1% of holding−4.4%−21.8%19,962Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-13DEMILIO MARK SdirectorSale2,000 @ $220.10$440K−8.3% of holding−10.5%−23.8%22,216Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-31DEMILIO MARK SdirectorSale400 @ $180.17$72K−1.7% of holding+7.3%−16.4%23,716Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-30DEMILIO MARK SdirectorSale500 @ $184.00$92K−2.0% of holding+8.6%−16.0%24,116Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-19DEMILIO MARK SdirectorSale2,000 @ $236.13$472K−7.5% of holding−21.2%−41.4%24,616Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-21Chaya EridirectorSale21,870 @ $450.21$9.8M−87.5% of holding−20.7%−57.2%3,130Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-21Chaya EridirectorSale2,316 @ $451.56$1.0M−74.0% of holding−20.7%−57.2%814Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-21Chaya EridirectorSale335 @ $453.74$152K−58.9% of holding−20.7%−57.2%234Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-21Chaya EridirectorSale245 @ $452.55$111K−30.1% of holding−20.7%−57.2%569Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-21Chaya EridirectorSale234 @ $454.62$106K−100.0% of holding−20.7%−57.2%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-17Hargarten ChristinaofficerSale3,750 @ $447.17$1.7M−79.6% of holding−17.2%−58.3%964Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-01-17Hargarten ChristinaofficerSale1,050 @ $447.17$470K−18.2% of holding−17.2%−58.3%4,714Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-01-17Lee Edward TofficerSale600 @ $446.73$268K−100.0% of holding−17.2%−58.3%0Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-01-17Hargarten ChristinaofficerSale480 @ $447.55$215K−49.8% of holding−17.2%−58.3%484Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-01-14Chaya EridirectorSale13,548 @ $425.35$5.8M−54.2% of holding−13.3%−61.2%11,452Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-14Chaya EridirectorSale5,350 @ $428.54$2.3M−89.4% of holding−13.3%−61.2%634Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-14Chaya EridirectorSale3,460 @ $426.19$1.5M−30.2% of holding−13.3%−61.2%7,992Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-14Chaya EridirectorSale2,008 @ $427.37$858K−25.1% of holding−13.3%−61.2%5,984Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-14Chaya EridirectorSale634 @ $429.20$272K−100.0% of holding−13.3%−61.2%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-06Chaya EridirectorSale2,712 @ $414.01$1.1M−27.1% of holding−1.8%−54.3%7,288Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-06Chaya EridirectorSale1,857 @ $419.07$778K−100.0% of holding−1.8%−54.3%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-06Chaya EridirectorSale1,462 @ $416.04$608K−24.6% of holding−1.8%−54.3%4,489Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-06Chaya EridirectorSale1,406 @ $416.77$586K−31.3% of holding−1.8%−54.3%3,083Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-06Chaya EridirectorSale1,337 @ $415.19$555K−18.3% of holding−1.8%−54.3%5,951Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-06Chaya EridirectorSale1,226 @ $417.91$512K−39.8% of holding−1.8%−54.3%1,857Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-06Belling KeithdirectorSale500 @ $417.85$209K−9.1% of holding−1.8%−54.3%4,970Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-17Belling KeithdirectorSale500 @ $415.00$208K−8.4% of holding+10.3%−55.0%5,470Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

60 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-18Rowghani AlidirectorAward / grant8432,060Form 4
2026-06-18ALBERINI CARLOSdirectorAward / grant84323,976Form 4
2026-06-18Belling KeithdirectorAward / grant8436,483Form 4
2026-06-18DEMILIO MARK SdirectorAward / grant84314,888Form 4
2026-06-18Krane Hilary KdirectorAward / grant8438,598Form 4
2026-06-18Mitic Kathleen C.directorAward / grant84312,899Form 4
2026-06-18SCHLESINGER LEONARD AdirectorAward / grant84316,134Form 4
2026-04-14DEMILIO MARK SdirectorAward / grant13,00018,170Form 4
2026-04-14Hargarten ChristinaofficerAward / grant7,5007,500Form 4
2026-04-14Preston Jack MofficerAward / grant25,00025,000Form 4
2026-04-14Chaya EridirectorAward / grant40,00040,000Form 4
2026-04-14Chi LisaofficerAward / grant30,00030,000Form 4
2026-04-05Chaya EridirectorAward / grant1,0001,000Form 4
2026-03-31Chaya EridirectorOption exercise11,00011,000Form 4
2026-03-31Chaya EridirectorOption exercise11,00025,000Form 4
2026-03-30Hargarten ChristinaofficerOption exercise1,1254,125Form 4
2026-03-30Hargarten ChristinaofficerOption exercise1,1252,359Form 4
2026-03-30Hargarten ChristinaofficerOption exercise1,1252,359Form 4
2026-03-24Chaya EridirectorOption exercise7,0007,000Form 4
2026-03-24Chaya EridirectorOption exercise7,00036,000Form 4
2026-03-17Chaya EridirectorOption exercise7,0007,000Form 4
2026-03-17Chaya EridirectorOption exercise7,00043,000Form 4
2026-01-31Chi LisaofficerOption exercise6,00014,000Form 4
2026-01-31Chi LisaofficerOption exercise6,0006,000Form 4
2026-01-31Chi LisaofficerOption exercise6,0006,000Form 4
2025-09-16DEMILIO MARK SdirectorWithheld for tax3,29829,419Form 4
2025-09-16DEMILIO MARK SdirectorOption exercise20,00032,717Form 4
2025-09-16DEMILIO MARK SdirectorOption exercise20,0000Form 4
2025-06-26Krane Hilary KdirectorAward / grant6707,755Form 4
2025-06-26Rowghani AlidirectorAward / grant6701,217Form 4
2025-06-26Mitic Kathleen C.directorAward / grant67012,056Form 4
2025-06-26ALBERINI CARLOSdirectorAward / grant67023,133Form 4
2025-06-26Belling KeithdirectorAward / grant6705,640Form 4
2025-06-26DEMILIO MARK SdirectorAward / grant67012,717Form 4
2025-06-26SCHLESINGER LEONARD AdirectorAward / grant67015,291Form 4
2025-05-30Chi LisaofficerAward / grant20,00020,000Form 4
2025-05-30Chi LisaofficerAward / grant50,00050,000Form 4
2025-04-13Chaya EridirectorAward / grant35,00035,000Form 4
2025-04-13Preston Jack MofficerAward / grant25,00025,000Form 4
2025-04-13Lee Edward TofficerAward / grant10,00010,000Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.