RGRSturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.Industrials · Aerospace & Defenseas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $37.08 · now $37.08 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RGR has typically landed between $33.02 and $41.30 — a range of −11.0% to +11.4% from the issuance price $37.08.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($37.08) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where RGR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $37.08 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$33.02worst · -11.0%$41.3best · +11.4%
  • now $37.08 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $36.92 (-0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $35.4–$38.43
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $33.02–$41.3
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2007-10-09−59.3%−59.3%+0.1%
2007-10-08−56.7%−56.7%+0.0%
2007-10-05−56.6%−56.6%+0.0%
3 best
2009-02-20+78.4%+0.0%+78.4%
2009-02-19+68.6%+0.0%+72.7%
2009-02-17+67.3%−1.3%+70.4%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
70%
+5.1%
n=20
Feb
70%
+5.9%
n=20
Mar
60%
+6.7%
n=20
Apr
70%
+4.8%
n=20
May
40%
−1.3%
n=20
Jun
40%
+1.0%
n=20
Jul
55%
+2.3%
n=20
Aug
50%
−1.0%
n=20
Sep
40%
+0.5%
n=20
Oct
55%
−0.9%
n=20
Nov
35%
−1.9%
n=20
Dec
50%
−1.1%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$47$292026-05-20: 1 insider purchase, $59K — Seyfert Todd William2026-05-14: 1 insider purchase, $40K — Pettet Bruce T.2026-05-12: 1 insider purchase, $190K — WIDMAN PHILLIP2025-11-14: 1 insider sale, $15K — ROSENTHAL AMIR2025-09-22: 1 insider sale, $351K — Killoy Christopher John2025-09-19: 1 insider sale, $49K — Killoy Christopher John2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $17K2025-09: 2 open-market sales, $400K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $15K2026-05: 3 open-market purchases, $289K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Seyfert Todd William — Purchase on 2026-05-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Pettet Bruce T. — Purchase on 2026-05-14, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WIDMAN PHILLIP — Purchase on 2026-05-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ROSENTHAL AMIR — Sale on 2025-11-14, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Killoy Christopher John — Sale on 2025-09-22, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Killoy Christopher John — Sale on 2025-09-19, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-20Seyfert Todd WilliamdirectorPurchase1,500 @ $39.15$59Kownership Δ n/a+2.3%not yet — horizon still open1,500Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-14Pettet Bruce T.directorPurchase1,000 @ $39.89$40K+15.1% of holding−4.6%not yet — horizon still open7,606Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-12WIDMAN PHILLIPdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $38.00$190K+12.4% of holding+3.4%not yet — horizon still open45,208Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-14ROSENTHAL AMIRdirectorSale500 @ $30.96$15K−2.4% of holding+1.3%+17.0%20,049Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-22Killoy Christopher JohndirectorSale8,776 @ $40.00$351K−23.7% of holding+9.0%+2.8%28,249Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-19Killoy Christopher JohndirectorSale1,224 @ $40.00$49K−3.2% of holding+10.9%+0.9%37,025Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-11Pettet Bruce T.directorPurchase500 @ $33.10$17K+8.2% of holding+7.1%+5.4%6,606Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-09Killoy Christopher JohndirectorSale8,583 @ $37.01$318K−17.1% of holding−8.6%−26.8%41,559Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-02Colbert Sarah FofficerSale8,000 @ $35.80$286K−93.4% of holding−2.2%−31.4%564Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-30Killoy Christopher JohndirectorSale4,029 @ $36.04$145K−7.4% of holding−5.4%−32.9%50,142Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-07Cosentino John A JrdirectorPurchase8,000 @ $33.11$265K+101.6% of holding+2.2%+12.1%15,875Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-06WIDMAN PHILLIPdirectorPurchase4,000 @ $33.58$134K+14.4% of holding+1.2%+4.2%31,757Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-06Lowney TimothyofficerPurchase2,200 @ $33.37$73K+33.0% of holding+1.2%+4.2%8,874Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-06Froman Sandra SdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $33.61$34K+7.4% of holding+1.2%+4.2%14,498Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-02ROSENTHAL AMIRdirectorSale500 @ $35.64$18K−2.8% of holding−0.8%−2.3%17,054Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

139 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-01Seyfert Todd WilliamdirectorAward / grant5,11694,137Form 4
2026-05-27OConnor Terrence GregorydirectorAward / grant1,77821,269Form 4
2026-05-27Pettet Bruce T.directorAward / grant1,1858,791Form 4
2026-05-27Pettet Bruce T.directorAward / grant1,77810,569Form 4
2026-05-27ROSENTHAL AMIRdirectorAward / grant1,35121,400Form 4
2026-05-27ROSENTHAL AMIRdirectorAward / grant1,77823,178Form 4
2026-05-27Rivers Aaron RoszelldirectorAward / grant1,5045,232Form 4
2026-05-27Rivers Aaron RoszelldirectorAward / grant1,7787,010Form 4
2026-05-27WIDMAN PHILLIPdirectorAward / grant1,64110,321Form 4
2026-05-27Cosentino John A JrdirectorAward / grant1,77828,953Form 4
2026-05-27WIDMAN PHILLIPdirectorAward / grant1,77812,099Form 4
2026-05-27Wolfe Lorin CassidydirectorAward / grant1,5045,232Form 4
2026-05-27Wolfe Lorin CassidydirectorAward / grant1,7787,010Form 4
2026-05-27Timm Stephen J.directorAward / grant1,5045,232Form 4
2026-05-27Cosentino John A JrdirectorAward / grant2,03127,175Form 4
2026-05-27Timm Stephen J.directorAward / grant1,7787,010Form 4
2026-05-27OConnor Terrence GregorydirectorAward / grant1,18519,491Form 4
2026-04-10Timm Stephen J.directorAward / grant2,4202,420Form 4
2026-04-10Rivers Aaron RoszelldirectorAward / grant2,4202,420Form 4
2026-04-10Rivers Aaron RoszelldirectorAward / grant1,3083,728Form 4
2026-04-10Wolfe Lorin CassidydirectorAward / grant2,4202,420Form 4
2026-04-10Wolfe Lorin CassidydirectorAward / grant1,3083,728Form 4
2026-04-10Timm Stephen J.directorAward / grant1,3083,728Form 4
2026-04-06Wieland Andrew ThomasofficerAward / grant3,65810,164Form 4
2026-04-06Wieland Andrew ThomasofficerAward / grant6,5066,506Form 4
2026-03-06DINEEN THOMAS ANTHONYofficerWithheld for tax35427,890Form 4
2026-03-06Colbert Sarah FofficerWithheld for tax165756Form 4
2026-03-06Leska Shawn ChristopherofficerWithheld for tax1616,725Form 4
2026-03-06Wilson Michael WofficerWithheld for tax1581,828Form 4
2026-03-06Werkmeister Robert J JrofficerWithheld for tax1409,306Form 4
2026-03-06Leska Shawn ChristopherofficerAward / grant6,92018,234Form 4
2026-03-06Quinn Benjamin PaulofficerAward / grant4,9439,652Form 4
2026-03-06Seyfert Todd WilliamdirectorAward / grant25,26389,021Form 4
2026-03-06Werkmeister Robert J JrofficerAward / grant3579,446Form 4
2026-03-06Werkmeister Robert J JrofficerAward / grant6,92018,234Form 4
2026-03-06Wilson Michael WofficerAward / grant3571,986Form 4
2026-03-06Wilson Michael WofficerAward / grant6,92018,234Form 4
2026-03-06Leska Shawn ChristopherofficerAward / grant3686,886Form 4
2026-03-06Colbert Sarah FofficerAward / grant357921Form 4
2026-03-06Colbert Sarah FofficerAward / grant6,92018,234Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.