RGLDRoyal Gold, Inc.Basic Materials · Goldas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $245.51 · now $245.51 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RGLD has typically landed between $214.71 and $287.92 — a range of −12.5% to +17.3% from the issuance price $245.51.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($245.51) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where RGLD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $245.51 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$214.71worst · -12.5%$287.92best · +17.3%
  • now $245.51 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $249.44 (+1.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $232.93–$265.94
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $214.71–$287.92
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−37.6%−37.6%+7.1%
2008-09-24−33.9%−33.9%+4.9%
2020-02-18−33.4%−33.4%+5.3%
3 best
2016-01-21+72.2%+0.0%+72.2%
2016-01-20+71.2%+0.0%+74.9%
2008-10-27+68.1%+0.0%+68.1%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+1.8%
n=20
Feb
50%
+2.3%
n=20
Mar
65%
+2.7%
n=20
Apr
55%
+2.1%
n=20
May
55%
+1.9%
n=20
Jun
30%
−0.7%
n=20
Jul
55%
+3.5%
n=20
Aug
55%
+4.4%
n=20
Sep
50%
−1.5%
n=20
Oct
35%
−2.1%
n=20
Nov
65%
+4.1%
n=20
Dec
60%
+1.7%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$303$1652026-09-03: 5 insider sales, $1.9M — Heissenbuttel William Holmes …2026-08-28: 1 insider sale, $131K — Shefman Randy2026-06-16: 1 insider sale, $108K — Shefman Randy2026-05-11: 1 insider sale, $244K — Shefman Randy2026-03-12: 1 insider sale, $550K — Isto Mark2026-03-04: 6 insider sales, $907K — Libner Paul …2026-03-02: 2 insider sales, $421K — Breeze Daniel …2026-02-20: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Hayes William M.2025-12-17: 1 insider sale, $66K — Vance Ronald J2025-12-11: 1 insider sale, $109K — Vance Ronald J2025-12-04: 1 insider sale, $196K — Breeze Daniel2025-12: 3 open-market sales, $371K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $1.2M2026-03: 9 open-market sales, $1.9M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $244K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $108K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $131K2026-09: 5 open-market sales, $1.9M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Heissenbuttel William Holmes — Sale on 2026-09-03, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Heissenbuttel William Holmes — Sale on 2026-09-03, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Heissenbuttel William Holmes — Sale on 2026-09-03, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Heissenbuttel William Holmes — Sale on 2026-09-03, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Heissenbuttel William Holmes — Sale on 2026-09-03, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Shefman Randy — Sale on 2026-08-28, filed same dayofficer Shefman Randy — Sale on 2026-06-16, filed same dayofficer Shefman Randy — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed same daydirector Isto Mark — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed same dayofficer Libner Paul — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed same dayofficer Libner Paul — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed same dayofficer Libner Paul — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed same dayofficer Libner Paul — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed same dayofficer Libner Paul — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed same dayofficer Libner Paul — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed same dayofficer Breeze Daniel — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed same dayofficer Breeze Daniel — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed same daydirector Hayes William M. — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Vance Ronald J — Sale on 2025-12-17, filed same daydirector Vance Ronald J — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Breeze Daniel — Sale on 2025-12-04, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-03Heissenbuttel William HolmesdirectorSale3,560 @ $264.59$942K−2.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open117,522Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-09-03Heissenbuttel William HolmesdirectorSale1,608 @ $261.31$420K−1.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open123,132Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-09-03Heissenbuttel William HolmesdirectorSale1,173 @ $263.53$309K−1.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open121,082Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-09-03Heissenbuttel William HolmesdirectorSale877 @ $262.31$230K−0.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open122,255Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-09-03Heissenbuttel William HolmesdirectorSale57 @ $259.98$15K−0.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open124,740Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-08-28Shefman RandyofficerSale500 @ $262.80$131K−5.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open8,082Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-16Shefman RandyofficerSale500 @ $215.85$108K−5.5% of holding−13.7%not yet — horizon still open8,582Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-11Shefman RandyofficerSale1,000 @ $243.74$244K−9.9% of holding−17.7%not yet — horizon still open9,082Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-12Isto MarkdirectorSale2,000 @ $274.83$550K−9.1% of holding−5.1%−21.5%20,043Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-04Libner PaulofficerSale1,000 @ $285.84$286K−5.9% of holding−2.4%−20.0%15,967Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-04Libner PaulofficerSale700 @ $282.82$198K−3.8% of holding−2.4%−20.0%17,567Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-04Libner PaulofficerSale700 @ $281.42$197K−3.7% of holding−2.4%−20.0%18,267Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-04Libner PaulofficerSale500 @ $283.66$142K−2.8% of holding−2.4%−20.0%17,067Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-04Libner PaulofficerSale200 @ $280.20$56K−1.0% of holding−2.4%−20.0%18,967Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-04Libner PaulofficerSale100 @ $284.41$28K−0.6% of holding−2.4%−20.0%16,967Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-02Breeze DanielofficerSale700 @ $302.00$211K−3.4% of holding−11.4%−26.1%20,140Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-02Breeze DanielofficerSale700 @ $299.73$210K−3.2% of holding−11.4%−26.1%20,840Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-20Hayes William M.directorSale4,173 @ $277.07$1.2M−40.5% of holding−17.3%−20.6%6,129Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-17Vance Ronald JdirectorSale300 @ $218.53$66K−3.4% of holding+24.0%−14.8%8,428Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-11Vance Ronald JdirectorSale500 @ $218.29$109K−5.4% of holding+15.5%−11.1%8,728Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-04Breeze DanielofficerSale970 @ $202.23$196K−4.8% of holding+19.2%−6.9%19,409Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-10Libner PaulofficerSale2,000 @ $176.96$354K−9.2% of holding−11.4%+3.6%19,749Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-17Shefman RandyofficerSale1,300 @ $154.98$201K−12.2% of holding+24.5%+6.5%9,360Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-11Breeze DanielofficerSale705 @ $154.00$109K−3.3% of holding+8.2%+3.6%20,379Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-15Heissenbuttel William HolmesdirectorSale1,500 @ $136.45$205K−1.4% of holding+4.5%+7.2%106,706Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-16Heissenbuttel William HolmesdirectorSale1,100 @ $145.90$160K−1.0% of holding−3.4%+25.0%108,606Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-16Heissenbuttel William HolmesdirectorSale400 @ $146.56$59K−0.4% of holding−3.4%+25.0%108,206Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-11Libner PaulofficerSale1,756 @ $153.00$269K−8.7% of holding−7.8%+17.7%18,482Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2024-12-10Breeze DanielofficerSale201 @ $150.06$30K−1.2% of holding−6.0%+24.1%16,092Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-09Breeze DanielofficerSale549 @ $150.00$82K−3.3% of holding−5.3%+20.9%16,293Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

100 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14Raffield MartinofficerWithheld for tax2710,996Form 4
2026-09-11Raffield MartinofficerGift4011,023Form 4
2026-03-11Crandall David RofficerGift1504,282Form 4
2026-03-02Heissenbuttel William HolmesdirectorWithheld for tax1,395124,797Form 4
2026-03-02Libner PaulofficerWithheld for tax51519,167Form 4
2026-03-02Shefman RandyofficerWithheld for tax30910,082Form 4
2026-03-02Raffield MartinofficerWithheld for tax21311,063Form 4
2026-03-01Heissenbuttel William HolmesdirectorWithheld for tax1,624126,192Form 4
2026-03-01Libner PaulofficerWithheld for tax62219,682Form 4
2026-03-01Shefman RandyofficerWithheld for tax36810,391Form 4
2026-03-01Raffield MartinofficerWithheld for tax35411,276Form 4
2026-03-01Crandall David RofficerWithheld for tax2324,432Form 4
2026-02-27Heissenbuttel William HolmesdirectorWithheld for tax1,216127,816Form 4
2026-02-27Libner PaulofficerWithheld for tax48020,304Form 4
2026-02-27Raffield MartinofficerWithheld for tax31311,630Form 4
2026-02-27Shefman RandyofficerWithheld for tax31210,759Form 4
2026-02-27Crandall David RofficerWithheld for tax1924,664Form 4
2026-02-26Veenman Sybil EdirectorAward / grant561561Form 4
2026-02-26Raffield MartinofficerAward / grant1,60811,603Form 4
2026-02-26Heissenbuttel William HolmesdirectorAward / grant680129,032Form 4
2026-02-26Raffield MartinofficerAward / grant34011,943Form 4
2026-02-26Heissenbuttel William HolmesdirectorAward / grant4,212128,352Form 4
2026-02-26Sokalsky Jamie CdirectorAward / grant561561Form 4
2026-02-26Isto MarkdirectorAward / grant561561Form 4
2026-02-26Shefman RandyofficerAward / grant1,55710,731Form 4
2026-02-26Shefman RandyofficerAward / grant34011,071Form 4
2026-02-26Hayes William M.directorAward / grant5616,690Form 4
2026-02-26Chubbs FabianadirectorAward / grant561561Form 4
2026-02-26Breeze DanielofficerAward / grant34021,540Form 4
2026-02-26Breeze DanielofficerAward / grant1,79121,200Form 4
2026-02-26Vance Ronald JdirectorAward / grant561561Form 4
2026-02-26Libner PaulofficerAward / grant34020,784Form 4
2026-02-26Libner PaulofficerAward / grant1,61220,444Form 4
2026-02-26Crandall David RofficerAward / grant9144,856Form 4
2026-02-03Isto MarkdirectorGift58022,043Form 4
2025-12-17Libner PaulofficerGift46318,832Form 4
2025-11-24Libner PaulofficerGift22519,295Form 4
2025-09-14Raffield MartinofficerWithheld for tax189,995Form 4
2025-08-18Heissenbuttel William HolmesdirectorWithheld for tax657124,140Form 4
2025-08-18Libner PaulofficerWithheld for tax22919,520Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.