Issued 2026-09-16 at $21.41 · now $21.41 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RGCO has typically landed between $19.24 and $24.27 — a range of −10.1% to +13.4% from the issuance price $21.41.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($21.41) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RGCO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $21.41 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $21.41 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $21.41 (+0.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $20.5–$22.32
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $19.24–$24.27
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-03-31 | −21.2% | −21.2% | +2.8% |
| 2023-04-10 | −21.1% | −22.7% | +0.8% |
| 2023-04-13 | −20.4% | −22.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-11-13 | +34.2% | +0.0% | +34.2% |
| 2023-11-10 | +30.1% | +0.0% | +32.1% |
| 2023-11-09 | +27.3% | −1.9% | +29.6% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
45%
−0.4%
n=20
Feb
50%
+0.1%
n=20
Mar
60%
+2.6%
n=20
Apr
75%
+0.5%
n=20
May
50%
+1.0%
n=20
Jun
60%
+2.5%
n=20
Jul
50%
−0.5%
n=20
Aug
60%
+0.7%
n=20
Sep
50%
−0.0%
n=20
Oct
55%
−0.6%
n=20
Nov
80%
+3.3%
n=20
Dec
55%
+1.1%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | WILLIAMSON JOHN B III | director | Purchase | 112 @ $21.20 | $2K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 179,931 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | JOHNSTON ROBERT B | director | Purchase | 420 @ $21.06 | $9K | +0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 66,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | WILLIAMSON JOHN B III | director | Purchase | 300 @ $21.30 | $6K | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 179,619 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | WILLIAMSON JOHN B III | director | Purchase | 200 @ $21.35 | $4K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 179,819 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Nester Paul W | director | Purchase | 500 @ $21.30 | $11K | +0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 134,213 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | WILLIAMSON JOHN B III | director | Purchase | 393 @ $21.31 | $8K | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 179,012 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | JOHNSTON ROBERT B | director | Purchase | 374 @ $21.12 | $8K | +0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 65,580 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | WILLIAMSON JOHN B III | director | Purchase | 300 @ $21.35 | $6K | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 178,619 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | WILLIAMSON JOHN B III | director | Purchase | 100 @ $21.24 | $2K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 179,112 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | WILLIAMSON JOHN B III | director | Purchase | 100 @ $21.21 | $2K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 179,212 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | WILLIAMSON JOHN B III | director | Purchase | 100 @ $21.19 | $2K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 179,312 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | WILLIAMSON JOHN B III | director | Purchase | 7 @ $21.25 | $149 | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 179,319 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | WILLIAMSON JOHN B III | director | Purchase | 220 @ $21.45 | $5K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 178,319 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | WILLIAMSON JOHN B III | director | Purchase | 89 @ $21.38 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 178,099 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | WILLIAMSON JOHN B III | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $21.30 | $21K | +0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 178,010 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Oliver Lawrence T. | officer | Purchase | 9 @ $21.57 | $200 | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 30,156 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Miles Christen Brooke | officer | Purchase | 5 @ $21.57 | $100 | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,942 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | JOHNSTON ROBERT B | director | Purchase | 600 @ $21.25 | $13K | +0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 65,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | JOHNSTON ROBERT B | director | Purchase | 206 @ $21.26 | $4K | +0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 65,206 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Oliver Lawrence T. | officer | Purchase | 9 @ $21.49 | $200 | +0.0% of holding | −0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,147 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Miles Christen Brooke | officer | Purchase | 5 @ $21.49 | $100 | +0.0% of holding | −0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,938 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Oliver Lawrence T. | officer | Purchase | 12 @ $24.27 | $300 | +0.0% of holding | −11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,055 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Miles Christen Brooke | officer | Purchase | 6 @ $24.27 | $150 | +0.1% of holding | −11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,834 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Oliver Lawrence T. | officer | Purchase | 9 @ $22.90 | $200 | +0.0% of holding | +7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,042 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Miles Christen Brooke | officer | Purchase | 4 @ $22.90 | $100 | +0.0% of holding | +7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,827 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Oliver Lawrence T. | officer | Purchase | 8 @ $24.40 | $200 | +0.0% of holding | −11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,033 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Miles Christen Brooke | officer | Purchase | 4 @ $24.40 | $100 | +0.0% of holding | −11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,823 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Oliver Lawrence T. | officer | Purchase | 9 @ $21.65 | $200 | +0.0% of holding | +3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,786 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Miles Christen Brooke | officer | Purchase | 5 @ $21.65 | $100 | +0.0% of holding | +3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,732 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Furcron Thomas Patrick | officer | Purchase | 19 @ $22.11 | $430 | +0.5% of holding | +4.8% | −13.7% | 3,866 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Oliver Lawrence T. | officer | Purchase | 9 @ $22.11 | $200 | +0.0% of holding | +4.8% | −13.7% | 29,777 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Miles Christen Brooke | officer | Purchase | 5 @ $22.11 | $100 | +0.0% of holding | +4.8% | −13.7% | 9,728 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Furcron Thomas Patrick | officer | Purchase | 19 @ $22.22 | $430 | +0.5% of holding | +3.5% | −9.4% | 3,846 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Oliver Lawrence T. | officer | Purchase | 9 @ $22.22 | $200 | +0.0% of holding | +3.5% | −9.4% | 29,768 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Miles Christen Brooke | officer | Purchase | 5 @ $22.22 | $100 | +0.0% of holding | +3.5% | −9.4% | 9,723 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Furcron Thomas Patrick | officer | Purchase | 20 @ $21.40 | $430 | +1.8% of holding | +6.3% | +3.0% | 1,168 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Oliver Lawrence T. | officer | Purchase | 9 @ $21.40 | $200 | +0.0% of holding | +6.3% | +3.0% | 24,018 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Miles Christen Brooke | officer | Purchase | 5 @ $21.40 | $100 | +0.1% of holding | +6.3% | +3.0% | 6,888 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Furcron Thomas Patrick | officer | Purchase | 29 @ $22.27 | $645 | +2.6% of holding | −4.9% | −9.5% | 1,148 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Oliver Lawrence T. | officer | Purchase | 13 @ $22.27 | $300 | +0.1% of holding | −4.9% | −9.5% | 24,008 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Miles Christen Brooke | officer | Purchase | 7 @ $22.27 | $150 | +0.1% of holding | −4.9% | −9.5% | 6,884 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Furcron Thomas Patrick | officer | Purchase | 21 @ $20.90 | $430 | +1.9% of holding | +7.8% | +2.6% | 1,119 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Oliver Lawrence T. | officer | Purchase | 10 @ $20.90 | $200 | +0.0% of holding | +7.8% | +2.6% | 23,995 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Miles Christen Brooke | officer | Purchase | 5 @ $20.90 | $100 | +0.1% of holding | +7.8% | +2.6% | 6,877 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Furcron Thomas Patrick | officer | Purchase | 19 @ $22.50 | $430 | +1.8% of holding | −7.5% | −0.2% | 1,087 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Oliver Lawrence T. | officer | Purchase | 9 @ $22.50 | $200 | +0.0% of holding | −7.5% | −0.2% | 23,779 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Miles Christen Brooke | officer | Purchase | 4 @ $22.50 | $100 | +0.1% of holding | −7.5% | −0.2% | 6,805 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Furcron Thomas Patrick | officer | Purchase | 19 @ $22.13 | $430 | +1.9% of holding | −3.0% | −3.2% | 1,068 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Oliver Lawrence T. | officer | Purchase | 9 @ $22.13 | $200 | +0.0% of holding | −3.0% | −3.2% | 23,770 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Miles Christen Brooke | officer | Purchase | 5 @ $22.13 | $100 | +0.1% of holding | −3.0% | −3.2% | 6,800 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Furcron Thomas Patrick | officer | Purchase | 22 @ $19.68 | $430 | +2.1% of holding | +9.4% | +2.6% | 1,049 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Oliver Lawrence T. | officer | Purchase | 10 @ $19.68 | $200 | +0.0% of holding | +9.4% | +2.6% | 23,761 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Miles Christen Brooke | officer | Purchase | 5 @ $19.68 | $100 | +0.1% of holding | +9.4% | +2.6% | 6,796 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Furcron Thomas Patrick | officer | Purchase | 19 @ $22.84 | $430 | +1.9% of holding | −13.3% | −16.3% | 1,016 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Oliver Lawrence T. | officer | Purchase | 9 @ $22.84 | $200 | +0.0% of holding | −13.3% | −16.3% | 23,535 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Miles Christen Brooke | officer | Purchase | 4 @ $22.84 | $100 | +0.1% of holding | −13.3% | −16.3% | 6,720 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-24 | Furcron Thomas Patrick | officer | Sale | 272 @ $22.16 | $6K | −21.4% of holding | −12.8% | −12.3% | 997 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Oliver Lawrence T. | officer | Purchase | 10 @ $20.46 | $200 | +0.0% of holding | +6.4% | −4.5% | 23,526 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Miles Christen Brooke | officer | Purchase | 5 @ $20.46 | $100 | +0.1% of holding | +6.4% | −4.5% | 6,715 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Oliver Lawrence T. | officer | Purchase | 9 @ $21.10 | $200 | +0.0% of holding | −9.2% | −21.0% | 23,516 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
129 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | BOXLEY ABNEY S III | director | Award / grant | 313 | 71,135 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Archer Jacqueline L. | director | Award / grant | 262 | 23,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Ellett Frank Russell | director | Award / grant | 243 | 15,351 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | CRAWFORD THOMAS J | director | Award / grant | 123 | 14,990 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | McClanahan Elizabeth A | director | Award / grant | 97 | 5,312 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | BOXLEY ABNEY S III | director | Award / grant | 314 | 70,822 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Archer Jacqueline L. | director | Award / grant | 263 | 22,952 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Ellett Frank Russell | director | Award / grant | 244 | 15,108 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | CRAWFORD THOMAS J | director | Award / grant | 124 | 14,867 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | McClanahan Elizabeth A | director | Award / grant | 97 | 5,215 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | BOXLEY ABNEY S III | director | Award / grant | 278 | 69,956 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Archer Jacqueline L. | director | Award / grant | 233 | 22,492 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Ellett Frank Russell | director | Award / grant | 216 | 14,773 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | CRAWFORD THOMAS J | director | Award / grant | 110 | 14,640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | McClanahan Elizabeth A | director | Award / grant | 86 | 5,066 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | BOXLEY ABNEY S III | director | Award / grant | 295 | 69,677 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Archer Jacqueline L. | director | Award / grant | 247 | 22,259 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Ellett Frank Russell | director | Award / grant | 229 | 14,557 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | CRAWFORD THOMAS J | director | Award / grant | 116 | 14,531 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | McClanahan Elizabeth A | director | Award / grant | 91 | 4,980 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | BOXLEY ABNEY S III | director | Award / grant | 277 | 69,383 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Archer Jacqueline L. | director | Award / grant | 232 | 22,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Ellett Frank Russell | director | Award / grant | 214 | 14,329 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | CRAWFORD THOMAS J | director | Award / grant | 109 | 14,414 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | McClanahan Elizabeth A | director | Award / grant | 86 | 4,889 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | BOXLEY ABNEY S III | director | Award / grant | 312 | 68,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Archer Jacqueline L. | director | Award / grant | 261 | 21,615 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ellett Frank Russell | director | Award / grant | 242 | 14,040 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | CRAWFORD THOMAS J | director | Award / grant | 123 | 14,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | McClanahan Elizabeth A | director | Award / grant | 97 | 4,761 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | BOXLEY ABNEY S III | director | Award / grant | 305 | 68,320 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Archer Jacqueline L. | director | Award / grant | 256 | 21,354 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Ellett Frank Russell | director | Award / grant | 237 | 13,798 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | CRAWFORD THOMAS J | director | Award / grant | 120 | 14,096 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | McClanahan Elizabeth A | director | Award / grant | 95 | 4,664 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Ellett Frank Russell | director | Award / grant | 471 | 13,561 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | BOXLEY ABNEY S III | director | Award / grant | 304 | 68,015 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Archer Jacqueline L. | director | Award / grant | 254 | 21,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | CRAWFORD THOMAS J | director | Award / grant | 120 | 13,976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | McClanahan Elizabeth A | director | Award / grant | 94 | 4,569 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.