Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.06 · now $2.06 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RFL has typically landed between $1.56 and $2.64 — a range of −24.5% to +28.0% from the issuance price $2.06.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,108 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-03-27 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.06) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RFL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.06 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $2.06 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.01 (-2.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.83–$2.19
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.56–$2.64
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-10-21 | −82.1% | −82.1% | +0.0% |
| 2021-10-26 | −81.0% | −81.9% | +0.0% |
| 2021-10-27 | −80.9% | −81.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-06-01 | +171.9% | −2.9% | +171.9% |
| 2026-05-29 | +139.4% | −1.5% | +139.4% |
| 2018-12-26 | +131.3% | +0.0% | +142.3% |
2,108 overlapping windows · 2018-03-27 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-05 | JONAS HOWARD S | director | Purchase | 12,299,207 @ $1.28 | $15.7M | ownership Δ n/a | +9.4% | −40.3% | 12,299,207 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | JONAS HOWARD S | director | Purchase | 457,031 @ $1.28 | $585K | ownership Δ n/a | +9.4% | −40.3% | 457,031 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | JONAS HOWARD S | director | Purchase | 324,219 @ $1.28 | $415K | ownership Δ n/a | +9.4% | −40.3% | 324,219 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
42 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | JONAS HOWARD S | director | Award / grant | 54,945 | 512,030 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-21 | Polinsky David | director | Withheld for tax | 2,386 | 299,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-13 | JONAS HOWARD S | director | Award / grant | 142,857 | 457,085 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-13 | JONAS HOWARD S | director | Withheld for tax | 8,786 | 314,228 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-21 | Polinsky David | director | Withheld for tax | 2,318 | 301,497 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | JONAS HOWARD S | director | Withheld for tax | 9,826 | 323,014 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | WEISS MICHAEL J | director | Award / grant | 39,370 | 141,861 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | STEIN MARK N | director | Award / grant | 39,370 | 50,845 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Sieger Markus | director | Award / grant | 29,528 | 219,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | GRAYSON ALAN | director | Award / grant | 6,562 | 6,562 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | JONAS HOWARD S | director | Award / grant | 75,000 | 332,840 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | Polinsky David | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 303,815 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | Polinsky David | director | Withheld for tax | 4,865 | 253,815 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-21 | Polinsky David | director | Withheld for tax | 1,961 | 258,680 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-13 | JONAS HOWARD S | director | Withheld for tax | 9,867 | 257,840 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-25 | Polinsky David | director | Withheld for tax | 4,180 | 260,641 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-23 | Polinsky David | director | Withheld for tax | 1,284 | 264,821 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-21 | Polinsky David | director | Withheld for tax | 1,970 | 266,105 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-13 | JONAS HOWARD S | director | Withheld for tax | 9,905 | 267,707 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-03 | Fine Joshua M | officer | Award / grant | 24,558 | 24,558 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-21 | Polinsky David | director | Withheld for tax | 2,347 | 268,075 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-13 | JONAS HOWARD S | director | Award / grant | 118,596 | 277,612 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-29 | Polinsky David | director | Exercise | 76,882 | 270,422 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-29 | Polinsky David | director | Exercise | 76,882 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-27 | Sieger Markus | director | Exercise | 35,000 | 190,182 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-27 | Sieger Markus | director | Exercise | 35,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-25 | CONKLING WILLIAM | director | Award / grant | 27,454 | 564,455 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-25 | CONKLING WILLIAM | director | Award / grant | 2,362 | 2,362 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-25 | CONKLING WILLIAM | director | Award / grant | 5,485 | 5,485 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-25 | CONKLING WILLIAM | director | Award / grant | 27,454 | 564,455 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-25 | CONKLING WILLIAM | director | Award / grant | 2,362 | 2,362 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-25 | CONKLING WILLIAM | director | Award / grant | 5,485 | 5,485 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-21 | CONKLING WILLIAM | director | Withheld for tax | 14,814 | 537,001 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-21 | Polinsky David | director | Withheld for tax | 2,378 | 193,540 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-13 | CONKLING WILLIAM | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 551,815 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-13 | Polinsky David | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 195,918 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-13 | GOLDBERG JOHN | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-06 | GREENBERG STEPHEN M | director | Award / grant | 27,541 | 102,491 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-06 | WEISS MICHAEL J | director | Award / grant | 27,541 | 102,491 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-06 | STEIN MARK N | director | Award / grant | 11,475 | 11,475 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.