RFIL · TickerCove

RFILRF Industries, Ltd.Industrials · Electrical Equipment & Partsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.20 · now $8.20 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RFIL has typically landed between $6.50 and $10.70 — a range of −20.7% to +30.5% from the issuance price $8.20.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-22 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.20) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$8.2 · 16% of range

$5.65 low$21.5 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.9%

typical move · IQR 16.0%

−20.7%worst (p90)+30.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where RFIL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.2 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $8.2 (+0.0%)
typical $8.12 (-0.9%)
middle 50% $7.47–$8.78
90% range $6.5–$10.7

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-22 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-09-10	−56.0%	−56.0%	+0.0%
2026-06-29	−50.0%	−50.0%	+0.0%
2016-03-10	−48.2%	−48.2%	+2.7%
3 best
2025-12-18	+102.5%	−4.6%	+102.5%
2026-01-09	+95.3%	+0.0%	+101.2%
2026-01-08	+94.3%	+0.0%	+105.3%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-22 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

65%

+6.4%

n=20

Feb

35%

−1.0%

n=20

Mar

40%

−3.3%

n=20

Apr

55%

+4.3%

n=20

May

60%

+5.1%

n=20

Jun

60%

+5.3%

n=20

Jul

70%

+5.7%

n=20

Aug

20%

−2.3%

n=20

Sep

45%

−2.4%

n=20

Oct

40%

−0.5%

n=20

Nov

35%

−0.1%

n=20

Dec

60%

+2.4%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-03-27	Holdsworth Mark Keith	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $4.74	$47K	+10.3% of holding	−16.6%	+58.5%	106,953	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-27	Holdsworth Mark Keith	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $4.68	$23K	+5.4% of holding	−16.6%	+58.5%	96,953	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

77 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-10	Cefali Sheryl Lynn	director	Award / grant	7,850	91,019	Form 4
2026-09-10	GARLAND GERALD T	director	Award / grant	7,850	152,310	Form 4
2026-09-10	Holdsworth Mark Keith	director	Award / grant	7,850	125,209	Form 4
2026-09-10	Tidwell Kay Lee	director	Award / grant	7,850	59,316	Form 4
2026-07-13	Dawson Robert D	director	Withheld for tax	834	336,242	Form 4
2026-07-13	Yin Peter	officer	Withheld for tax	118	131,748	Form 4
2026-07-13	Bibisi Ray Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	116	65,918	Form 4
2026-07-11	Dawson Robert D	director	Withheld for tax	1,197	337,076	Form 4
2026-07-11	Dawson Robert D	director	Withheld for tax	528	338,273	Form 4
2026-07-11	Yin Peter	officer	Withheld for tax	264	131,866	Form 4
2026-07-11	Bibisi Ray Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	182	66,034	Form 4
2026-07-11	Yin Peter	officer	Withheld for tax	144	132,130	Form 4
2026-07-11	Bibisi Ray Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	20	66,216	Form 4
2026-04-13	Dawson Robert D	director	Withheld for tax	662	338,801	Form 4
2026-04-13	Yin Peter	officer	Withheld for tax	245	132,274	Form 4
2026-04-13	Bibisi Ray Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	125	66,236	Form 4
2026-04-11	Dawson Robert D	director	Withheld for tax	1,025	339,463	Form 4
2026-04-11	Dawson Robert D	director	Withheld for tax	420	340,488	Form 4
2026-04-11	Yin Peter	officer	Withheld for tax	222	132,519	Form 4
2026-04-11	Bibisi Ray Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	140	66,361	Form 4
2026-04-11	Yin Peter	officer	Withheld for tax	120	132,741	Form 4
2026-04-11	Bibisi Ray Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	35	66,501	Form 4
2026-01-13	Dawson Robert D	director	Withheld for tax	3,513	340,908	Form 4
2026-01-13	Bibisi Ray Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	790	66,536	Form 4
2026-01-13	Yin Peter	officer	Withheld for tax	770	132,861	Form 4
2026-01-11	Dawson Robert D	director	Withheld for tax	943	344,421	Form 4
2026-01-11	Bibisi Ray Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	190	67,326	Form 4
2026-01-11	Yin Peter	officer	Withheld for tax	187	133,631	Form 4
2026-01-10	Dawson Robert D	director	Withheld for tax	158	345,364	Form 4
2026-01-10	Yin Peter	officer	Withheld for tax	47	133,818	Form 4
2026-01-10	Bibisi Ray Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	26	67,516	Form 4
2026-01-07	Dawson Robert D	director	Award / grant	43,750	345,522	Form 4
2026-01-07	Bibisi Ray Michael	officer	Award / grant	15,625	67,542	Form 4
2026-01-07	Bibisi Ray Michael	officer	Award / grant	31,250	31,250	Form 4
2026-01-07	Yin Peter	officer	Award / grant	31,250	31,250	Form 4
2026-01-07	Yin Peter	officer	Award / grant	15,625	133,865	Form 4
2026-01-07	Dawson Robert D	director	Award / grant	87,500	87,500	Form 4
2025-10-11	Dawson Robert D	director	Withheld for tax	400	301,772	Form 4
2025-10-11	Dawson Robert D	director	Withheld for tax	245	302,172	Form 4
2025-10-11	Yin Peter	officer	Withheld for tax	160	118,240	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i