RFRegions Financial CorporationFinancial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $28.47 · now $28.47 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RF has typically landed between $24.79 and $32.55 — a range of −12.9% to +14.3% from the issuance price $28.47.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($28.47) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where RF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $28.47 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$24.79worst · -12.9%$32.55best · +14.3%
  • now $28.47 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $28.79 (+1.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $26.95–$30.62
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $24.79–$32.55
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2009-01-05−71.2%−71.2%+1.3%
2009-01-02−69.8%−69.8%+2.4%
2009-01-06−67.9%−71.6%+0.0%
3 best
2008-08-20+133.8%−4.6%+133.8%
2008-08-21+93.2%+0.0%+145.1%
2008-08-19+77.5%−1.8%+77.5%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$26.3B
market cap
$2.45
EPS (TTM)
12.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-16
next earnings
Revenue$9.6B
'20'25
Net income$2.2B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.2B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr22.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr11.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.26
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $28.47$27.03$41.11
  • DCF (intrinsic)$33.60
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$40.14
  • Analyst target · range $28.00–$35.00$34.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$28.47

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
72%
+0.4%
n=18
Feb
58%
+1.9%
n=19
Mar
42%
−0.8%
n=19
Apr
68%
+3.5%
n=19
May
53%
−1.5%
n=19
Jun
53%
−2.4%
n=19
Jul
68%
+3.7%
n=19
Aug
47%
−0.2%
n=19
Sep
47%
−0.3%
n=19
Oct
61%
+0.8%
n=18
Nov
78%
+5.6%
n=18
Dec
61%
+1.2%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$32$232026-09-10: 1 insider sale, $23 — Chadha Anil D2026-05-07: 1 insider sale, $196K — Willman Brian R2026-01-22: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — Ritter William D.2025-08-13: 1 insider purchase, $102K — Jenkins Roger W.2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $102K2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $750K2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $1.0M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $196K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $23↑ buys↓ salesofficer Chadha Anil D — Sale on 2026-09-10, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Willman Brian R — Sale on 2026-05-07, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Ritter William D. — Sale on 2026-01-22, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Jenkins Roger W. — Purchase on 2025-08-13, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-10Chadha Anil DofficerSale1 @ $29.89$23−0.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open11,607Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-07Willman Brian RofficerSale7,014 @ $27.91$196K−100.0% of holding+2.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-22Ritter William D.officerSale36,000 @ $28.78$1.0M−67.2% of holding+2.4%+3.3%17,569Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-13Jenkins Roger W.directorPurchase4,000 @ $25.48$102K+167.9% of holding+4.2%+11.3%6,383Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-06Keenan David R.officerSale30,000 @ $25.01$750K−24.8% of holding+7.2%+17.2%90,915Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-08Willman Brian RofficerSale8,185 @ $21.37$175K−100.0% of holding−1.2%−2.8%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-11JOHNSON JOIA MdirectorPurchase2,300 @ $21.18$49K+15.1% of holding−3.7%+13.6%17,486Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-03SUQUET JOSE SdirectorSale125 @ $24.15$3K−0.4% of holding−4.7%+1.4%33,711Form 4 · filed 25 days after the trade
2025-01-29SUQUET JOSE SdirectorPurchase45 @ $25.07$1K+0.1% of holding−2.3%−0.3%33,836Form 4 · filed 30 days after the trade
2025-01-28SUQUET JOSE SdirectorPurchase420 @ $24.71$10K+1.3% of holding−2.2%+0.6%33,662Form 4 · filed 31 days after the trade
2025-01-28SUQUET JOSE SdirectorPurchase69 @ $24.75$2K+0.2% of holding−2.2%+0.6%33,731Form 4 · filed 31 days after the trade
2025-01-28SUQUET JOSE SdirectorPurchase40 @ $24.59$984+0.1% of holding−2.2%+0.6%33,771Form 4 · filed 31 days after the trade
2025-01-28SUQUET JOSE SdirectorPurchase20 @ $24.57$491+0.1% of holding−2.2%+0.6%33,791Form 4 · filed 31 days after the trade
2025-01-22SUQUET JOSE SdirectorPurchase494 @ $24.44$12K+1.5% of holding−2.7%+5.3%33,242Form 4 · filed 37 days after the trade
2025-01-14SUQUET JOSE SdirectorPurchase41 @ $23.93$981+0.1% of holding−4.5%−4.1%32,748Form 4 · filed 45 days after the trade
2025-01-13SUQUET JOSE SdirectorPurchase473 @ $23.57$11K+1.5% of holding−2.2%−3.8%32,655Form 4 · filed 46 days after the trade
2025-01-13SUQUET JOSE SdirectorPurchase52 @ $23.60$1K+0.2% of holding−2.2%−3.8%32,707Form 4 · filed 46 days after the trade
2024-12-30SUQUET JOSE SdirectorPurchase125 @ $23.68$3K+0.4% of holding+1.8%+0.2%32,182Form 4 · filed 60 days after the trade
2024-12-23SUQUET JOSE SdirectorSale99 @ $23.76$2K−0.3% of holding+3.1%−3.9%32,057Form 4 · filed 67 days after the trade
2024-12-20SUQUET JOSE SdirectorPurchase530 @ $23.75$13K+1.7% of holding+0.1%−3.7%32,156Form 4 · filed 70 days after the trade
2024-08-05SUQUET JOSE SdirectorPurchase99 @ $20.41$2K+0.3% of holding+6.5%+4.0%31,626Form 4 · filed 207 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

242 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-15MARSHALL RUTH ANNdirectorAward / grant1,707174,233Form 4
2026-07-15Hill J ThomasdirectorAward / grant1,11222,883Form 4
2026-07-15STYSLINGER LEE J IIIdirectorAward / grant993279,409Form 4
2026-07-15Crosswhite Mark A.directorAward / grant99323,281Form 4
2026-07-15VINES TIMOTHYdirectorAward / grant99355,882Form 4
2026-07-01Santone Angela R.officerWithheld for tax10,28618,125Form 4
2026-07-01Santone Angela R.officerOption exercise28,41172,157Form 4
2026-07-01Santone Angela R.officerOption exercise28,41128,411Form 4
2026-05-11Davis NoopurdirectorAward / grant5,4045,404Form 4
2026-05-11Hill J ThomasdirectorAward / grant5,40420,686Form 4
2026-05-11Golodryga ZhannadirectorAward / grant5,40420,904Form 4
2026-05-11MARSHALL RUTH ANNdirectorAward / grant5,40468,462Form 4
2026-05-11RHODES WILLIAM C IIIdirectorAward / grant5,4045,404Form 4
2026-05-11Jenkins Roger W.directorAward / grant5,4045,404Form 4
2026-05-11VINES TIMOTHYdirectorAward / grant5,40458,184Form 4
2026-05-11Rand Alison S.directorAward / grant5,40420,686Form 4
2026-05-11SUQUET JOSE SdirectorAward / grant5,40468,462Form 4
2026-05-11STYSLINGER LEE J IIIdirectorAward / grant5,40468,462Form 4
2026-05-11Crosswhite Mark A.directorAward / grant5,40428,808Form 4
2026-05-11JOHNSON JOIA MdirectorAward / grant5,40412,557Form 4
2026-05-06Jenkins Roger W.directorOption exercise7,90414,287Form 4
2026-05-06JOHNSON JOIA MdirectorOption exercise7,9047,153Form 4
2026-05-06JOHNSON JOIA MdirectorOption exercise7,90414,993Form 4
2026-05-06PROKOPANKO JAMES TdirectorOption exercise63,05581,786Form 4
2026-05-06RHODES WILLIAM C IIIdirectorOption exercise7,9040Form 4
2026-05-06RHODES WILLIAM C IIIdirectorOption exercise7,90416,272Form 4
2026-05-06Jenkins Roger W.directorOption exercise7,9040Form 4
2026-05-06PROKOPANKO JAMES TdirectorOption exercise63,0550Form 4
2026-05-06Golodryga ZhannadirectorOption exercise7,90443,429Form 4
2026-05-06Golodryga ZhannadirectorOption exercise7,90415,500Form 4
2026-05-06Davis NoopurdirectorOption exercise7,90428,572Form 4
2026-05-06Davis NoopurdirectorOption exercise7,9040Form 4
2026-04-15MARSHALL RUTH ANNdirectorAward / grant1,661171,054Form 4
2026-04-15STYSLINGER LEE J IIIdirectorAward / grant1,122276,042Form 4
2026-04-15Crosswhite Mark A.directorAward / grant1,12222,098Form 4
2026-04-15VINES TIMOTHYdirectorAward / grant1,12254,421Form 4
2026-04-15Hill J ThomasdirectorAward / grant1,07721,586Form 4
2026-04-03Turner John M JRdirectorWithheld for tax71,3691,006,157Form 4
2026-04-03Keenan David R.officerWithheld for tax15,294110,104Form 4
2026-04-03Massey Charles DandridgeofficerWithheld for tax15,29454,202Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-31$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-17$1–15K
James French HillHousesale2025-07-242025-06-23$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-05-122025-04-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-05-122025-04-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-04-102025-03-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-03-062025-02-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-02-062025-01-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-09-062024-08-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-03-062024-02-07$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.