Issued 2026-09-16 at $43.08 · now $43.08 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, REPX has typically landed between $34.12 and $54.67 — a range of −20.8% to +26.9% from the issuance price $43.08.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,997 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($43.08) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where REPX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $43.08 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $43.08 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $43.58 (+1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $39.88–$47.29
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $34.12–$54.67
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,997 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-06-18 | −61.3% | −61.7% | +1.3% |
| 2021-02-22 | −60.8% | −70.1% | +0.0% |
| 2021-02-24 | −60.8% | −68.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-01-19 | +231.5% | +0.0% | +231.5% |
| 2021-01-15 | +197.1% | +0.0% | +197.1% |
| 2021-01-21 | +179.1% | −10.1% | +198.1% |
4,997 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
75%
+15.0%
n=20
Feb
45%
−1.0%
n=20
Mar
60%
+3.6%
n=20
Apr
55%
+3.8%
n=20
May
40%
−1.2%
n=20
Jun
50%
+5.1%
n=20
Jul
70%
+3.3%
n=20
Aug
35%
−1.0%
n=20
Sep
55%
−1.8%
n=20
Oct
40%
+0.4%
n=20
Nov
35%
−3.8%
n=20
Dec
35%
−3.1%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Riley Philip A | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $37.61 | $150K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 235,503 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Riley Bobby | director | Sale | 8,901 @ $36.12 | $321K | −1.8% of holding | +20.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 482,983 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Riley Bobby | director | Sale | 3,599 @ $35.18 | $127K | −0.7% of holding | +20.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 491,884 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Riley Corey Neil | officer | Sale | 3,460 @ $35.21 | $122K | −1.6% of holding | +20.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 210,062 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Riley Corey Neil | officer | Sale | 40 @ $34.40 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | +20.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 213,522 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Riley Bobby | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $36.22 | $1.1M | −5.7% of holding | −7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 495,483 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Riley Bobby | director | Sale | 7,688 @ $34.56 | $266K | −2.4% of holding | +5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 313,020 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Riley Bobby | director | Sale | 4,812 @ $34.27 | $165K | −1.5% of holding | +5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 320,708 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Riley Corey Neil | officer | Sale | 2,322 @ $34.55 | $80K | −1.5% of holding | +5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 148,472 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Riley Corey Neil | officer | Sale | 1,178 @ $34.02 | $40K | −0.8% of holding | +5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 150,794 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Arriaga Brent Alexander | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $38.94 | $97K | −13.1% of holding | −20.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,633 | Form 4 · filed 41 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 490,433 @ $32.80 | $16.1M | −19.2% of holding | +22.9% | +14.9% | 2,068,620 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-05 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 391,913 @ $31.76 | $12.4M | −13.3% of holding | +16.7% | +18.9% | 2,559,053 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 36,050 @ $29.65 | $1.1M | −1.2% of holding | +27.4% | +30.1% | 2,950,966 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 26,327 @ $29.58 | $779K | −0.9% of holding | +24.4% | +24.4% | 2,987,016 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 19,310 @ $29.73 | $574K | −0.6% of holding | +28.7% | +23.3% | 3,013,343 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5,256 @ $28.38 | $149K | −0.2% of holding | +34.8% | +27.0% | 3,032,653 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 55,147 @ $28.33 | $1.6M | −1.8% of holding | +27.6% | +26.4% | 3,037,909 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-19 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 35,302 @ $28.48 | $1.0M | −1.1% of holding | +27.7% | +24.4% | 3,093,056 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Riley Corey Neil | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $27.41 | $96K | −2.2% of holding | +27.7% | +23.7% | 158,565 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,820 @ $28.23 | $136K | −0.2% of holding | +23.6% | +17.6% | 3,128,358 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Riley Bobby | director | Sale | 12,185 @ $27.77 | $338K | −3.5% of holding | +26.6% | +21.4% | 337,246 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Riley Bobby | director | Sale | 315 @ $28.62 | $9K | −0.1% of holding | +26.6% | +21.4% | 336,931 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 122,647 @ $28.88 | $3.5M | −3.8% of holding | +17.4% | +17.3% | 3,133,178 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 195,297 @ $28.39 | $5.5M | −5.7% of holding | +14.4% | +17.5% | 3,255,825 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 148,900 @ $28.56 | $4.3M | −4.1% of holding | +17.1% | +9.0% | 3,451,122 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-03 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 73,528 @ $28.18 | $2.1M | −2.0% of holding | +15.8% | +7.3% | 3,600,022 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 8,806 @ $28.07 | $247K | −0.2% of holding | +7.6% | +11.8% | 3,673,550 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,388 @ $28.10 | $95K | −0.1% of holding | +6.8% | +14.5% | 3,682,356 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-29 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 90,000 @ $28.31 | $2.5M | −2.4% of holding | +6.1% | +16.9% | 3,685,744 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-28 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 57,012 @ $27.73 | $1.6M | −1.5% of holding | +6.0% | +17.3% | 3,775,744 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-27 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 75,220 @ $27.57 | $2.1M | −1.9% of holding | +4.2% | +19.5% | 3,832,756 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-26 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,595 @ $27.55 | $44K | −0.0% of holding | +0.8% | +14.0% | 3,907,976 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-23 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 13,128 @ $27.80 | $365K | −0.3% of holding | +2.0% | +19.2% | 3,909,571 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 22,771 @ $27.56 | $628K | −0.6% of holding | +1.1% | +22.4% | 3,922,699 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-21 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 122,795 @ $27.74 | $3.4M | −3.0% of holding | +3.6% | +25.8% | 3,945,470 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 16,548 @ $27.71 | $459K | −0.4% of holding | +5.4% | +25.7% | 4,068,265 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Riley Bobby | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $25.91 | $518K | −5.4% of holding | +8.6% | +23.5% | 349,431 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 43,000 @ $28.12 | $1.2M | −1.0% of holding | −13.6% | +20.4% | 4,157,327 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-04 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 70,368 @ $27.78 | $2.0M | −1.6% of holding | −12.2% | +23.2% | 4,200,327 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 95,539 @ $27.56 | $2.6M | −2.2% of holding | −7.7% | +21.1% | 4,270,695 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Riley Bobby | director | Sale | 12,500 @ $25.05 | $313K | −3.3% of holding | +10.4% | +39.8% | 369,431 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | Riley Corey Neil | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $24.87 | $87K | −2.1% of holding | +7.9% | +38.5% | 162,065 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,992 @ $28.08 | $84K | −0.1% of holding | −6.3% | +16.7% | 4,366,234 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-09 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 976 @ $28.14 | $27K | −0.0% of holding | −7.3% | +48.6% | 4,369,226 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-08 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,676 @ $28.03 | $131K | −0.1% of holding | −10.4% | +44.0% | 4,370,202 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-07 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 9,975 @ $28.04 | $280K | −0.2% of holding | −9.1% | +41.8% | 4,374,878 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,798 @ $28.03 | $50K | −0.0% of holding | −6.1% | +39.3% | 4,384,853 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-25 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 28,000 @ $28.09 | $786K | −0.6% of holding | −6.2% | +39.8% | 4,386,651 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-24 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 78,534 @ $28.25 | $2.2M | −1.7% of holding | −4.8% | +38.0% | 4,414,651 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-23 | Bluescape Riley Exploration Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 28,582 @ $28.16 | $805K | −0.6% of holding | −3.3% | +36.7% | 4,493,185 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Riley Bobby | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $26.01 | $390K | −3.6% of holding | +6.1% | +0.0% | 399,636 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Riley Corey Neil | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $26.42 | $92K | −1.9% of holding | +0.5% | +3.7% | 176,700 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-16 | Libin Alvin Gerald | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 15,000 @ $25.39 | $381K | +0.7% of holding | +6.0% | +3.0% | 2,236,921 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-14 | Libin Alvin Gerald | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 15,000 @ $27.27 | $409K | +0.7% of holding | −2.3% | −10.8% | 2,221,921 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-23 | Arriaga Brent Alexander | director | Sale | 3,918 @ $27.95 | $110K | −17.0% of holding | −3.6% | −17.0% | 19,133 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-17 | Riley Bobby | director | Sale | 5,500 @ $28.65 | $158K | −1.3% of holding | −8.8% | −22.4% | 414,636 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Riley Bobby | director | Sale | 4,500 @ $28.05 | $126K | −1.1% of holding | −10.6% | −16.9% | 420,136 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Riley Bobby | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $27.92 | $419K | −3.4% of holding | −2.2% | −26.9% | 424,636 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | Riley Corey Neil | officer | Sale | 3,430 @ $26.20 | $90K | −1.9% of holding | −2.0% | −22.2% | 180,270 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
58 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | SUTER JOHN PATRICK | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,229 | 134,198 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Gutman Jeffrey | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,720 | 98,130 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Riley Philip A | officer | Award / grant | 34,944 | 201,871 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Bayless Rebecca L | director | Award / grant | 7,143 | 31,744 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Arriaga Brent Alexander | director | Award / grant | 7,143 | 23,776 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Riley Corey Neil | officer | Award / grant | 31,340 | 179,812 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Riley Corey Neil | officer | Award / grant | 33,750 | 213,562 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Saadati Bobby | director | Award / grant | 7,143 | 9,021 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Riley Bobby | director | Award / grant | 102,297 | 415,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Riley Bobby | director | Award / grant | 110,166 | 525,483 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Gutman Jeffrey | officer | Award / grant | 27,899 | 69,806 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Gutman Jeffrey | officer | Award / grant | 30,044 | 99,850 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Riley Philip A | officer | Award / grant | 37,632 | 239,503 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | SUTER JOHN PATRICK | officer | Award / grant | 31,619 | 102,377 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | SUTER JOHN PATRICK | officer | Award / grant | 34,050 | 136,427 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | NORDBERG E WAYNE | director | Award / grant | 7,143 | 31,694 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-14 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Other acquisition | 81,036 | 81,036 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-14 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Other acquisition | 896,274 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-14 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Other acquisition | 9,781 | 31,319 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-13 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Other acquisition | 7,348 | 7,348 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-13 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Other acquisition | 5,777 | 21,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-13 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Other acquisition | 489,863 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Riley Bobby | director | Withheld for tax | 11,411 | 325,520 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Riley Philip A | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,554 | 166,927 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Riley Corey Neil | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,593 | 151,972 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | SUTER JOHN PATRICK | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,206 | 70,758 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Gutman Jeffrey | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,670 | 41,907 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | di Santo Beth A | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 61,112 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Saadati Bobby | director | Award / grant | 1,878 | 1,878 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Riley Philip A | officer | Gift | 400 | 175,481 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Other acquisition | 250,000 | 1,715,219 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Other acquisition | 250,000 | 1,715,219 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Riley Bobby | director | Withheld for tax | 10,754 | 381,931 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Riley Corey Neil | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,715 | 165,565 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Riley Philip A | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,654 | 175,881 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-27 | Riley Bobby | director | Withheld for tax | 6,951 | 392,685 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-27 | Riley Philip A | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,637 | 182,535 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-27 | Riley Corey Neil | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,420 | 172,280 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | Gutman Jeffrey | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,525 | 44,577 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | SUTER JOHN PATRICK | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,521 | 73,964 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.