RENTRent the Runway, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Retailas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.94 · now $1.94 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RENT has typically landed between $1.15 and $2.97 — a range of −40.9% to +53.2% from the issuance price $1.94.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,203 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-10-27 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.94) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where RENT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.94 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$1.15worst · -40.9%$2.97best · +53.2%
  • now $1.94 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.71 (-11.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.41–$2.02
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.15–$2.97
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,203 windows spanning 2021-10-27 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2022-09-12−59.8%−59.8%+0.0%
2022-08-25−58.7%−58.7%+0.0%
2022-08-24−56.7%−56.7%+3.8%
3 best
2024-04-05+218.6%+0.0%+302.3%
2024-04-18+197.3%−12.5%+197.3%
2024-04-19+191.5%−20.1%+191.5%

1,203 overlapping windows · 2021-10-27 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
+2.4%
n=5
Feb
20%
−20.1%
n=5
Mar
20%
−10.3%
n=5
Apr
40%
+5.7%
n=5
May
40%
+17.4%
n=5
Jun
0%
−16.6%
n=5
Jul
40%
+6.6%
n=5
Aug
40%
−4.8%
n=5
Sep
0%
−36.9%
n=5
Oct
0%
−13.6%
n=4
Nov
60%
−1.2%
n=5
Dec
40%
+24.5%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$9$22026-09-14: 1 insider sale, $49K — Fonseca Dhiren R.2026-07-24: 1 insider sale, $103K — Fonseca Dhiren R.2025-09-16: 5 insider sales, $51K — Hyman Jennifer, Thacker Siddharth, Tam Sarah K, Schembri Cara …2025-08: 6 open-market sales, $25K2025-09: 5 open-market sales, $51K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $103K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $49K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Fonseca Dhiren R. — Sale on 2026-09-14, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Fonseca Dhiren R. — Sale on 2026-07-24, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Hyman Jennifer — Sale on 2025-09-16, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Thacker Siddharth — Sale on 2025-09-16, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Tam Sarah K — Sale on 2025-09-16, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Schembri Cara — Sale on 2025-09-16, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Rau Andrew — Sale on 2025-09-16, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14Fonseca Dhiren R.directorSale25,132 @ $1.94$49K−25.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open75,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-24Fonseca Dhiren R.directorSale34,516 @ $2.99$103K−25.6% of holding+14.6%not yet — horizon still open100,132Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-16Hyman JenniferdirectorSale6,128 @ $4.89$30K−5.6% of holding−9.9%−14.0%104,091Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-16Thacker SiddharthofficerSale1,948 @ $4.89$10K−4.7% of holding−9.9%−14.0%39,437Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-16Tam Sarah KofficerSale863 @ $4.89$4K−3.2% of holding−9.9%−14.0%25,817Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-16Schembri CaraofficerSale797 @ $4.89$4K−3.2% of holding−9.9%−14.0%24,085Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-16Rau AndrewofficerSale775 @ $4.89$4K−3.5% of holding−9.9%−14.0%21,134Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-04Hyman JenniferdirectorSale4,450 @ $4.51$20K−3.9% of holding+27.0%+38.0%110,219Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-04Thacker SiddharthofficerSale399 @ $4.51$2K−1.0% of holding+27.0%+38.0%41,385Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-04Tam Sarah KofficerSale331 @ $4.51$1K−1.2% of holding+27.0%+38.0%26,680Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-04Schembri CaraofficerSale262 @ $4.51$1K−1.0% of holding+27.0%+38.0%24,882Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-04Hyman JenniferdirectorSale94 @ $4.58$431−0.1% of holding+27.0%+38.0%114,669Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-04Rau AndrewofficerSale41 @ $4.51$185−0.2% of holding+27.0%+38.0%21,909Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-17Thacker SiddharthofficerSale2,019 @ $4.77$10K−4.6% of holding−0.5%+63.4%41,784Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-17Tam Sarah KofficerSale895 @ $4.77$4K−3.2% of holding−0.5%+63.4%27,011Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-17Schembri CaraofficerSale826 @ $4.77$4K−3.2% of holding−0.5%+63.4%25,144Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-17Case BeckyofficerSale758 @ $4.77$4K−3.2% of holding−0.5%+63.4%23,149Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-02Hyman JenniferdirectorSale3,244 @ $4.26$14K−2.6% of holding+38.3%−27.2%121,021Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-02Case BeckyofficerSale647 @ $4.26$3K−2.6% of holding+38.3%−27.2%23,907Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-02Thacker SiddharthofficerSale400 @ $4.26$2K−0.9% of holding+38.3%−27.2%43,803Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-02Tam Sarah KofficerSale331 @ $4.26$1K−1.2% of holding+38.3%−27.2%27,906Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-02Schembri CaraofficerSale263 @ $4.26$1K−1.0% of holding+38.3%−27.2%25,970Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-02Hyman JenniferdirectorSale69 @ $4.26$294−0.1% of holding+38.3%−27.2%124,265Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-02Rau AndrewofficerSale41 @ $4.26$175−0.2% of holding+38.3%−27.2%22,753Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-17Hyman JenniferdirectorSale4,467 @ $4.36$19K−3.5% of holding+1.8%−5.2%124,265Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-17Thacker SiddharthofficerSale1,948 @ $4.36$8K−4.2% of holding+1.8%−5.2%44,203Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-17Tam Sarah KofficerSale1,396 @ $4.36$6K−4.7% of holding+1.8%−5.2%28,237Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-17Rau AndrewofficerSale1,285 @ $4.36$6K−5.3% of holding+1.8%−5.2%22,794Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-17Schembri CaraofficerSale1,276 @ $4.36$6K−4.6% of holding+1.8%−5.2%26,233Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-17Case BeckyofficerSale827 @ $4.36$4K−3.3% of holding+1.8%−5.2%24,554Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-04Hyman JenniferdirectorSale3,841 @ $7.42$29K−2.9% of holding−38.2%−45.6%128,731Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-04Case BeckyofficerSale1,034 @ $7.42$8K−3.9% of holding−38.2%−45.6%25,375Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-04Thacker SiddharthofficerSale631 @ $7.42$5K−1.3% of holding−38.2%−45.6%46,150Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-04Tam Sarah KofficerSale392 @ $7.42$3K−1.3% of holding−38.2%−45.6%29,632Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-04Schembri CaraofficerSale310 @ $7.42$2K−1.1% of holding−38.2%−45.6%27,505Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-04Rau AndrewofficerSale48 @ $7.42$356−0.2% of holding−38.2%−45.6%24,077Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-03Hyman JenniferdirectorSale78 @ $7.81$609−0.1% of holding−34.2%−50.1%132,572Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-16Hyman JenniferdirectorSale11,161 @ $8.55$95K−7.8% of holding+1.4%−42.8%132,477Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-16Thacker SiddharthofficerSale2,738 @ $8.55$23K−5.5% of holding+1.4%−42.8%46,781Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-16Tam Sarah KofficerSale1,960 @ $8.55$17K−6.1% of holding+1.4%−42.8%30,024Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-16Rau AndrewofficerSale1,344 @ $8.55$11K−5.3% of holding+1.4%−42.8%24,125Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-16Schembri CaraofficerSale1,307 @ $8.55$11K−4.5% of holding+1.4%−42.8%27,815Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-16Case BeckyofficerSale749 @ $8.55$6K−2.8% of holding+1.4%−42.8%26,409Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

42 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14Thomas Paige LdirectorAward / grant277,110477,710Form 4
2026-09-14Bariquit TeridirectorAward / grant51,61468,373Form 4
2026-08-11ROSENSWEIG DANIELdirectorAward / grant35,48157,196Form 4
2026-07-23Fonseca Dhiren R.directorConversion134,648134,648Form 4
2026-06-01Thomas Paige LdirectorAward / grant200,600200,600Form 4
2026-02-27Fonseca Dhiren R.directorAward / grant802,395802,395Form 4
2025-12-16Schembri CaraofficerAward / grant120,359120,359Form 4
2025-12-16Hyman JenniferdirectorAward / grant1,002,9931,002,993Form 4
2025-12-16Rau AndrewofficerAward / grant120,359120,359Form 4
2025-12-16Thacker SiddharthofficerAward / grant200,598200,598Form 4
2025-12-16Tam Sarah KofficerAward / grant200,598200,598Form 4
2025-12-16ROSENSWEIG DANIELdirectorAward / grant16,75921,715Form 4
2025-12-16Bariquit TeridirectorAward / grant16,75916,759Form 4
2025-10-28Fleiss JenniferdirectorConversion31,3140Form 4
2025-10-28Hyman JenniferdirectorConversion57,9060Form 4
2025-10-28Hyman JenniferdirectorConversion6,1550Form 4
2025-10-28Hyman JenniferdirectorConversion6,1556,155Form 4
2025-10-28Fleiss JenniferdirectorConversion31,31436,896Form 4
2025-10-28Hyman JenniferdirectorConversion57,906161,997Form 4
2025-10-28Fleiss JenniferdirectorConversion31,31436,896Form 4
2025-10-28Hyman JenniferdirectorConversion57,906161,997Form 4
2025-10-28Hyman JenniferdirectorConversion6,1556,155Form 4
2025-10-21Roth MichaeldirectorExercise13,16925,839Form 4
2025-10-21Roth MichaeldirectorExercise17,6360Form 4
2025-08-04Hyman JenniferdirectorConversion9457,906Form 4
2025-08-04Hyman JenniferdirectorConversion94114,763Form 4
2025-08-01Hyman JenniferdirectorOption exercise15958,000Form 4
2025-08-01Hyman JenniferdirectorOption exercise159159Form 4
2025-07-08Paltrow GwynethdirectorAward / grant1,6858,334Form 4
2025-07-08Fleiss JenniferdirectorAward / grant1,6855,582Form 4
2025-07-08KAPLAN BETH JdirectorAward / grant1,68533,561Form 4
2025-07-08BIXBY TIMOTHY EdirectorAward / grant1,68510,169Form 4
2025-07-08ROSENSWEIG DANIELdirectorAward / grant1,6854,956Form 4
2025-07-08Roth MichaeldirectorAward / grant1,68512,670Form 4
2025-05-02Hyman JenniferdirectorConversion6957,841Form 4
2025-05-02Hyman JenniferdirectorConversion69124,334Form 4
2025-05-01Hyman JenniferdirectorOption exercise15957,910Form 4
2025-05-01Hyman JenniferdirectorOption exercise159318Form 4
2025-02-03Hyman JenniferdirectorConversion78132,650Form 4
2025-02-03Hyman JenniferdirectorConversion7857,751Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.