Issued 2026-09-16 at $22.15 · now $22.15 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RELY has typically landed between $16.51 and $27.92 — a range of −25.5% to +26.0% from the issuance price $22.15.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,229 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-09-23 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($22.15) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RELY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $22.15 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $22.15 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $22.31 (+0.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $19.89–$24.73
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $16.51–$27.92
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,229 windows spanning 2021-09-23 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-11-09 | −46.7% | −46.7% | +0.0% |
| 2021-11-10 | −45.9% | −45.9% | +0.0% |
| 2021-12-29 | −45.0% | −45.0% | +1.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-10-10 | +53.7% | +0.0% | +55.5% |
| 2024-10-08 | +53.3% | −1.4% | +53.3% |
| 2024-10-09 | +51.8% | −1.1% | +53.8% |
1,229 overlapping windows · 2021-09-23 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
−9.5%
n=5
Feb
80%
+12.0%
n=5
Mar
40%
−2.6%
n=5
Apr
40%
+6.9%
n=5
May
40%
−4.4%
n=5
Jun
40%
−6.9%
n=5
Jul
80%
+5.1%
n=5
Aug
100%
+15.8%
n=5
Sep
40%
−5.9%
n=5
Oct
60%
+5.5%
n=5
Nov
20%
−10.5%
n=5
Dec
60%
−0.6%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Hug Joshua | director | Sale | 5,500 @ $24.30 | $134K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,658,889 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Hug Joshua | director | Sale | 5,500 @ $25.03 | $138K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,664,389 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | MORRIS NIGEL W | director | Sale | 6,300 @ $27.03 | $170K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,804,756 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Sharma Pankaj | officer | Sale | 21,000 @ $26.39 | $554K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 716,022 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Mehta Vikas D | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $26.15 | $654K | −2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 943,735 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | MORRIS NIGEL W | director | Sale | 16,751 @ $26.56 | $445K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,811,056 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | MORRIS NIGEL W | director | Sale | 3,249 @ $26.53 | $86K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,827,807 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | MORRIS NIGEL W | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $26.26 | $525K | −1.1% of holding | −13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,831,056 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | MORRIS NIGEL W | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $26.20 | $524K | −1.1% of holding | −14.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,851,056 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | MORRIS NIGEL W | director | Sale | 11,000 @ $25.59 | $281K | −0.6% of holding | −11.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,871,056 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Riese Phillip John | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $23.54 | $942K | −12.1% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 290,912 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Riese Phillip John | director | Sale | 29,818 @ $23.55 | $702K | −10.2% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 261,094 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Hug Joshua | director | Sale | 5,500 @ $23.84 | $131K | −0.2% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,669,889 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Riese Phillip John | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $23.77 | $1.2M | −16.1% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 261,094 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-11 | Riese Phillip John | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $23.69 | $1.2M | −13.8% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 311,094 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-11 | Hug Joshua | director | Sale | 5,500 @ $23.65 | $130K | −0.2% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,675,389 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Riese Phillip John | director | Sale | 160,182 @ $24.94 | $4.0M | −30.7% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 361,094 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | MORRIS NIGEL W | director | Sale | 8,938 @ $25.43 | $227K | −0.5% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,882,056 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-17 | Hug Joshua | director | Sale | 5,500 @ $24.11 | $133K | −0.2% of holding | +5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,680,889 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-16 | Hug Joshua | director | Sale | 362,000 @ $25.18 | $9.1M | −11.9% of holding | +0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,691,889 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Sharma Pankaj | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $25.03 | $375K | −2.0% of holding | +0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 752,810 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Hug Joshua | director | Sale | 5,500 @ $25.39 | $140K | −0.2% of holding | +0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,686,389 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Hug Joshua | director | Sale | 314,768 @ $24.93 | $7.8M | −9.3% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,053,889 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Hug Joshua | director | Sale | 16,800 @ $22.53 | $379K | −0.5% of holding | +5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,368,657 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-29 | Hug Joshua | director | Sale | 16,800 @ $22.97 | $386K | −0.5% of holding | +3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,385,457 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Hug Joshua | director | Sale | 9,533 @ $20.76 | $198K | −0.3% of holding | +16.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,402,257 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-17 | Hug Joshua | director | Sale | 6,500 @ $20.76 | $135K | −0.2% of holding | +16.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,411,790 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-16 | Hug Joshua | director | Sale | 6,500 @ $20.10 | $131K | −0.2% of holding | +19.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,420,290 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Hug Joshua | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $20.09 | $40K | −0.1% of holding | +19.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,418,290 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Hug Joshua | director | Sale | 33,600 @ $21.03 | $707K | −1.0% of holding | +10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,424,244 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Hug Joshua | director | Sale | 476 @ $20.00 | $10K | −0.0% of holding | +13.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,457,844 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-28 | Sharma Pankaj | officer | Sale | 16,000 @ $20.01 | $320K | −2.0% of holding | +15.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 767,810 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Mehta Vikas D | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $21.07 | $527K | −2.5% of holding | +8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 988,004 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Sinha Ankur | officer | Sale | 7,596 @ $21.07 | $160K | −0.6% of holding | +8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,222,718 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Chung Bora | director | Sale | 12,000 @ $21.42 | $257K | −8.7% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 125,317 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Hug Joshua | director | Sale | 6,500 @ $22.70 | $148K | −0.2% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,463,820 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-15 | Hug Joshua | director | Sale | 5,500 @ $22.70 | $125K | −0.2% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,458,320 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-14 | Sinha Ankur | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $23.42 | $1.2M | −3.8% of holding | −16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,255,566 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Hug Joshua | director | Sale | 6,500 @ $23.31 | $152K | −0.2% of holding | −16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,475,820 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Hug Joshua | director | Sale | 5,500 @ $23.32 | $128K | −0.2% of holding | −16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,470,320 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | MORRIS NIGEL W | director | Sale | 3,572 @ $24.03 | $86K | −0.2% of holding | −19.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,857,638 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Hug Joshua | director | Sale | 34,383 @ $24.89 | $856K | −1.0% of holding | −23.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,482,320 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | Hug Joshua | director | Sale | 16,800 @ $21.66 | $364K | −0.5% of holding | −9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,516,703 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-29 | Hug Joshua | director | Sale | 16,800 @ $21.56 | $362K | −0.5% of holding | −14.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,533,503 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-27 | Somalya Saema | officer | Sale | 10,987 @ $21.24 | $233K | −4.2% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 248,828 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Riese Phillip John | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $20.04 | $802K | −24.6% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 122,496 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Sharma Pankaj | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $20.00 | $200K | −1.5% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 665,878 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Somalya Saema | officer | Sale | 23,789 @ $18.11 | $431K | −8.4% of holding | +16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 259,815 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-15 | Hug Joshua | director | Sale | 6,500 @ $18.02 | $117K | −0.2% of holding | +16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,550,303 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-15 | Hug Joshua | director | Sale | 5,500 @ $18.73 | $103K | −0.2% of holding | +16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,556,803 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-14 | Somalya Saema | officer | Sale | 12,187 @ $18.00 | $219K | −4.1% of holding | +25.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 283,604 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | Hug Joshua | director | Sale | 6,500 @ $17.98 | $117K | −0.2% of holding | +25.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,562,303 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | Hug Joshua | director | Sale | 5,500 @ $17.76 | $98K | −0.2% of holding | +25.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,568,803 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Hug Joshua | director | Sale | 1,430 @ $15.99 | $23K | −0.0% of holding | +36.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,574,303 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Sharma Pankaj | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $15.26 | $153K | −1.5% of holding | +34.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 665,878 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Blignaut Ryno | director | Sale | 4,500 @ $15.26 | $69K | −6.5% of holding | +18.7% | +29.2% | 64,450 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | NASPERS LTD | other | Sale | 12,000,000 @ $15.98 | $191.8M | −47.2% of holding | +8.2% | +26.2% | 13,441,745 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Sinha Ankur | officer | Sale | 9,741 @ $16.94 | $165K | −0.8% of holding | −1.4% | +16.5% | 1,180,119 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Somalya Saema | officer | Sale | 36,764 @ $18.00 | $662K | −11.1% of holding | −3.8% | +42.1% | 295,791 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Hug Joshua | director | Sale | 29,049 @ $17.98 | $522K | −0.8% of holding | −3.8% | +42.1% | 3,575,733 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
217 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Gunningham Sebastian J | director | Withheld for tax | 22,809 | 741,840 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Mehta Vikas D | officer | Withheld for tax | 19,269 | 968,735 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Sharma Pankaj | officer | Withheld for tax | 15,788 | 737,022 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Riese Phillip John | director | Option exercise | 69,818 | 330,912 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Riese Phillip John | director | Option exercise | 69,818 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Riese Phillip John | director | Option exercise | 100,000 | 521,276 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Riese Phillip John | director | Option exercise | 100,000 | 69,818 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Riese Phillip John | director | Option exercise | 270,182 | 421,276 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Riese Phillip John | director | Option exercise | 270,182 | 169,818 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Hug Joshua | director | Award / grant | 2,546 | 3,426,790 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Le Moal Laurent | director | Award / grant | 2,943 | 61,595 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Le Moal Laurent | director | Award / grant | 30,556 | 92,151 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | MORRIS NIGEL W | director | Award / grant | 2,800 | 1,860,438 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | MORRIS NIGEL W | director | Award / grant | 30,556 | 1,890,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Messinger Adam | director | Award / grant | 10,185 | 10,185 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Messinger Adam | director | Award / grant | 3,477 | 13,662 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Messinger Adam | director | Award / grant | 1,846 | 15,508 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Oppenheimer Matthew B. | director | Award / grant | 10,185 | 4,510,790 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Smyth Margaret Mary | director | Award / grant | 3,055 | 88,554 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Riese Phillip John | director | Option exercise | 9,533 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Blignaut Ryno | director | Award / grant | 3,819 | 68,269 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Chung Bora | director | Award / grant | 3,452 | 128,769 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Chung Bora | director | Award / grant | 30,556 | 159,325 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | CAMPBELL PHYLLIS J | director | Award / grant | 3,666 | 78,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Riese Phillip John | director | Option exercise | 9,533 | 151,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Riese Phillip John | director | Option exercise | 9,533 | 151,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Sinha Ankur | officer | Withheld for tax | 25,252 | 1,230,314 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Gunningham Sebastian J | director | Withheld for tax | 22,851 | 764,649 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Mehta Vikas D | officer | Withheld for tax | 19,270 | 1,013,004 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Sharma Pankaj | officer | Withheld for tax | 15,788 | 783,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Somalya Saema | officer | Withheld for tax | 31,638 | 56,390 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Mehta Vikas D | officer | Award / grant | 138,628 | 1,032,274 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Mehta Vikas D | officer | Award / grant | 30,887 | 893,646 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Sharma Pankaj | officer | Award / grant | 118,440 | 799,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Sinha Ankur | officer | Award / grant | 125,172 | 1,305,566 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Sharma Pankaj | officer | Award / grant | 15,280 | 681,158 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Riese Phillip John | director | Option exercise | 40,000 | 152,496 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Sharma Pankaj | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 675,878 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Riese Phillip John | director | Option exercise | 40,000 | 440,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Sharma Pankaj | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.