Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.48 · now $1.48 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, REI has typically landed between $1.14 and $1.91 — a range of −22.9% to +28.8% from the issuance price $1.48.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,867 overlapping 1 month windows · 2007-04-10 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.48) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where REI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.48 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.48 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.45 (-2.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.29–$1.61
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.14–$1.91
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-06 | −70.6% | −70.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-13 | −67.3% | −67.8% | +0.0% |
| 2011-07-08 | −67.2% | −67.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2007-04-12 | +214.3% | +0.0% | +246.4% |
| 2007-04-11 | +214.3% | +0.0% | +246.4% |
| 2007-04-10 | +214.3% | +0.0% | +246.4% |
4,867 overlapping windows · 2007-04-10 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Johl Sundip Singh | officer | Purchase | 231,000 @ $1.21 | $279K | +72.8% of holding | +2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 548,460 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | McKinney Paul D. | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $1.19 | $60K | +1.2% of holding | +2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,158,463 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Dyes Alexander | officer | Purchase | 29,069 @ $0.86 | $25K | +3.3% of holding | +7.1% | +31.5% | 907,156 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-12 | McKinney Paul D. | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $0.84 | $17K | +0.7% of holding | +22.1% | +51.5% | 3,016,054 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | McKinney Paul D. | director | Purchase | 30,000 @ $0.80 | $24K | +1.0% of holding | +25.8% | +56.0% | 2,996,054 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | Warburg Pincus (E&P) XII LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,486,027 @ $0.92 | $2.3M | −10.8% of holding | −19.1% | −13.5% | 20,509,300 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | Warburg Pincus & Co US, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,486,027 @ $0.92 | $2.3M | −10.8% of holding | −19.1% | −13.5% | 20,509,300 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Warburg Pincus & Co US, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 228,008 @ $0.82 | $187K | −1.0% of holding | −14.1% | −8.9% | 22,995,327 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-12 | Warburg Pincus (E&P) XII LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 228,008 @ $0.82 | $187K | −1.0% of holding | −14.1% | −8.9% | 22,995,327 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-11 | Warburg Pincus (E&P) XII LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 652,380 @ $0.81 | $528K | −2.7% of holding | −8.1% | −4.4% | 23,223,335 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | Warburg Pincus & Co US, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 652,380 @ $0.81 | $528K | −2.7% of holding | −8.1% | −4.4% | 23,223,335 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | Warburg Pincus (E&P) XII LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 505,340 @ $0.81 | $409K | −2.1% of holding | −1.7% | +0.8% | 23,875,715 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | Warburg Pincus & Co US, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 505,340 @ $0.81 | $409K | −2.1% of holding | −1.7% | +0.8% | 23,875,715 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Warburg Pincus (E&P) XII LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 257,468 @ $0.78 | $201K | −1.0% of holding | −4.4% | +4.5% | 24,381,055 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-09 | Warburg Pincus & Co US, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 257,468 @ $0.78 | $201K | −1.0% of holding | −4.4% | +4.5% | 24,381,055 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-06 | Warburg Pincus (E&P) XII LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 215,476 @ $0.77 | $166K | −0.9% of holding | −2.9% | +6.7% | 24,638,523 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-06 | Warburg Pincus & Co US, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 215,476 @ $0.77 | $166K | −0.9% of holding | −2.9% | +6.7% | 24,638,523 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Warburg Pincus & Co US, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 26,606 @ $0.75 | $20K | −0.1% of holding | +0.8% | +11.3% | 24,853,999 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Warburg Pincus (E&P) XII LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 26,606 @ $0.75 | $20K | −0.1% of holding | +0.8% | +11.3% | 24,853,999 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-04 | Warburg Pincus (E&P) XII LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 321,289 @ $0.76 | $244K | −1.3% of holding | −1.8% | +8.5% | 24,880,605 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-04 | Warburg Pincus & Co US, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 321,289 @ $0.76 | $244K | −1.3% of holding | −1.8% | +8.5% | 24,880,605 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-03 | Warburg Pincus & Co US, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 521,232 @ $0.79 | $412K | −2.0% of holding | −2.3% | +2.7% | 25,201,894 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | Warburg Pincus (E&P) XII LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 521,232 @ $0.79 | $412K | −2.0% of holding | −2.3% | +2.7% | 25,201,894 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Warburg Pincus (E&P) XII LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 495,278 @ $0.76 | $376K | −1.9% of holding | +2.0% | +7.9% | 25,723,126 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Warburg Pincus & Co US, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 495,278 @ $0.76 | $376K | −1.9% of holding | +2.0% | +7.9% | 25,723,126 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-28 | Warburg Pincus (E&P) XII LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 31,171 @ $0.80 | $25K | −0.1% of holding | −6.7% | +0.4% | 26,218,404 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-28 | Warburg Pincus & Co US, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 31,171 @ $0.80 | $25K | −0.1% of holding | −6.7% | +0.4% | 26,218,404 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | Warburg Pincus (E&P) XII LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 55,700 @ $0.80 | $45K | −0.2% of holding | −5.5% | +1.7% | 26,249,575 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | Warburg Pincus & Co US, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 55,700 @ $0.80 | $45K | −0.2% of holding | −5.5% | +1.7% | 26,249,575 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Warburg Pincus (E&P) XII LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 95,782 @ $0.80 | $77K | −0.4% of holding | +1.4% | +9.7% | 26,305,275 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Warburg Pincus & Co US, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 95,782 @ $0.80 | $77K | −0.4% of holding | +1.4% | +9.7% | 26,305,275 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Dyes Alexander | officer | Purchase | 63,203 @ $0.79 | $50K | +7.8% of holding | +1.4% | +9.7% | 878,087 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Warburg Pincus (E&P) XII LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 193,940 @ $0.82 | $159K | −0.7% of holding | +3.4% | +0.7% | 26,401,057 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-19 | Warburg Pincus & Co US, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 193,940 @ $0.82 | $159K | −0.7% of holding | +3.4% | +0.7% | 26,401,057 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-16 | Warburg Pincus & Co US, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 406,408 @ $0.81 | $329K | −1.5% of holding | +7.8% | +6.0% | 26,594,997 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Warburg Pincus (E&P) XII LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 406,408 @ $0.81 | $329K | −1.5% of holding | +7.8% | +6.0% | 26,594,997 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Warburg Pincus (E&P) XII LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 554,102 @ $0.84 | $465K | −2.0% of holding | −4.2% | +5.1% | 27,001,405 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Warburg Pincus & Co US, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 554,102 @ $0.84 | $465K | −2.0% of holding | −4.2% | +5.1% | 27,001,405 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-14 | Warburg Pincus & Co US, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 455,655 @ $0.89 | $406K | −1.6% of holding | −3.4% | −2.6% | 27,555,507 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-14 | Warburg Pincus (E&P) XII LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 455,655 @ $0.89 | $406K | −1.6% of holding | −3.4% | −2.6% | 27,555,507 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-13 | Warburg Pincus & Co US, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 634,481 @ $0.91 | $577K | −2.2% of holding | −11.1% | −2.7% | 28,011,162 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Warburg Pincus (E&P) XII LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 634,481 @ $0.91 | $577K | −2.2% of holding | −11.1% | −2.7% | 28,011,162 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Warburg Pincus & Co US, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 300,000 @ $0.90 | $270K | −1.0% of holding | −9.5% | −4.7% | 28,645,643 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Warburg Pincus (E&P) XII LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 300,000 @ $0.90 | $270K | −1.0% of holding | −9.5% | −4.7% | 28,645,643 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | CRUM JOHN A | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $1.15 | $57K | +9.7% of holding | −22.0% | −26.7% | 564,125 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | McKinney Paul D. | director | Purchase | 200,000 @ $1.08 | $215K | +7.2% of holding | −15.2% | −27.3% | 2,966,054 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Warburg Pincus (E&P) XII LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 6,575,000 @ $1.23 | $8.1M | −18.5% of holding | −10.8% | −35.0% | 28,945,643 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Warburg Pincus & Co US, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 6,575,000 @ $1.23 | $8.1M | −18.5% of holding | −10.8% | −35.0% | 28,945,643 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-23 | Roesener Regina | director | Sale | 16,000 @ $1.25 | $20K | −3.6% of holding | +11.5% | −42.5% | 430,262 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
65 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | Johl Sundip Singh | officer | Award / grant | 317,460 | 317,460 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | McKinney Paul D. | director | Withheld for tax | 220,014 | 4,108,463 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Dyes Alexander | officer | Withheld for tax | 47,829 | 1,239,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Tharp Carla Todd | director | Award / grant | 119,048 | 195,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | MITCHELL THOMAS L | director | Award / grant | 119,048 | 583,173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Parr James J. | officer | Award / grant | 317,460 | 547,348 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Kwon Rocky | officer | Award / grant | 132,063 | 307,491 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | HARRIS RICHARD E | director | Award / grant | 119,048 | 505,773 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Habachy David | director | Award / grant | 119,048 | 383,444 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Young Shawn D. | officer | Award / grant | 222,222 | 419,709 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | CRUM JOHN A | director | Award / grant | 119,048 | 683,173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | FEINER PHILLIP B | officer | Award / grant | 238,095 | 379,061 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Dyes Alexander | officer | Award / grant | 317,460 | 1,165,572 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Dyes Alexander | officer | Award / grant | 121,547 | 1,287,119 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Petrelli Anthony Benedict | director | Award / grant | 119,048 | 889,373 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | McKinney Paul D. | director | Award / grant | 952,381 | 3,769,359 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | McKinney Paul D. | director | Award / grant | 559,118 | 4,328,477 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | McKinney Paul D. | director | Withheld for tax | 54,358 | 2,816,978 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Young Shawn D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,080 | 197,487 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Dyes Alexander | officer | Withheld for tax | 13,409 | 848,112 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Kwon Rocky | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,185 | 175,428 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | McKinney Paul D. | director | Withheld for tax | 54,358 | 2,871,336 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Dyes Alexander | officer | Withheld for tax | 18,772 | 861,521 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Young Shawn D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,361 | 211,567 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Kwon Rocky | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,285 | 181,613 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | McKinney Paul D. | director | Withheld for tax | 90,360 | 2,925,694 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Dyes Alexander | officer | Withheld for tax | 26,863 | 880,293 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Parr James J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 26,863 | 229,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | FEINER PHILLIP B | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,343 | 140,966 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Young Shawn D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,980 | 225,928 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Kwon Rocky | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,689 | 188,898 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-18 | Parr James J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,737 | 256,751 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Young Shawn D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,030 | 237,908 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-31 | FEINER PHILLIP B | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,218 | 153,309 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-29 | Tharp Carla Todd | director | Award / grant | 76,177 | 76,177 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-16 | McKinney Paul D. | director | Withheld for tax | 54,358 | 2,766,054 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-16 | Young Shawn D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 13,448 | 245,968 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-16 | Dyes Alexander | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,616 | 814,884 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-16 | Thomas Travis | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,313 | 767,653 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-13 | McKinney Paul D. | director | Withheld for tax | 149,878 | 2,820,412 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.