Issued 2026-09-16 at $774.61 · now $774.61 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, REGN has typically landed between $673.90 and $873.67 — a range of −13.0% to +12.8% from the issuance price $774.61.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($774.61) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where REGN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $774.61 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $774.61 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $783.06 (+1.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $743.65–$822.48
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $673.9–$873.67
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2009-02-09 | −37.3% | −37.3% | +0.0% |
| 2009-02-06 | −36.7% | −37.8% | +0.0% |
| 2009-02-05 | −35.1% | −35.1% | +4.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2012-01-03 | +68.4% | +0.0% | +68.4% |
| 2012-01-04 | +67.5% | +0.0% | +67.5% |
| 2011-12-30 | +66.7% | +0.0% | +66.7% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$2,215
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$1,126
- Analyst target · range $641.00–$1,000$839.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$774.61
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | McCourt Marion | officer | Sale | 1,131 @ $857.39 | $970K | −8.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 12,003 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-02 | McCourt Marion | officer | Sale | 1,215 @ $850.00 | $1.0M | −8.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,134 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Guarini Kathryn | director | Sale | 400 @ $850.00 | $340K | −39.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 603 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Zoghbi Huda Y | director | Sale | 800 @ $800.00 | $640K | −32.0% of holding | +1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,703 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Guarini Kathryn | director | Sale | 400 @ $800.00 | $320K | −39.9% of holding | +1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 603 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 200 @ $650.15 | $130K | −1.1% of holding | +14.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,303 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 24 @ $703.46 | $17K | −0.1% of holding | −19.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,559 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 15 @ $704.28 | $11K | −0.1% of holding | −19.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,544 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 15 @ $702.46 | $11K | −0.1% of holding | −19.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,583 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 14 @ $705.56 | $10K | −0.1% of holding | −19.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,530 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 7 @ $706.74 | $5K | −0.0% of holding | −19.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,523 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 6 @ $709.45 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | −19.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,513 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 5 @ $711.49 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | −19.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,506 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 5 @ $701.76 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | −19.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,598 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 4 @ $707.40 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | −19.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,519 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 2 @ $714.13 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | −19.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,503 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 2 @ $710.87 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | −19.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,511 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 1 @ $712.09 | $712 | −0.0% of holding | −19.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,505 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 40 @ $779.71 | $31K | −0.2% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,603 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 14 @ $775.58 | $11K | −0.1% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,669 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 13 @ $776.62 | $10K | −0.1% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,656 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 9 @ $777.42 | $7K | −0.1% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,647 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 8 @ $774.58 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,683 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 8 @ $773.59 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,691 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 4 @ $778.24 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,643 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 3 @ $772.76 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,699 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 1 @ $771.32 | $771 | −0.0% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,702 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 20 @ $789.28 | $16K | −0.1% of holding | +2.7% | −11.1% | 17,703 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 20 @ $788.96 | $16K | −0.1% of holding | +2.7% | −11.1% | 17,723 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 11 @ $785.48 | $9K | −0.1% of holding | +2.7% | −11.1% | 17,752 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 10 @ $783.62 | $8K | −0.1% of holding | +2.7% | −11.1% | 17,772 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 9 @ $784.48 | $7K | −0.1% of holding | +2.7% | −11.1% | 17,763 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 7 @ $786.61 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | +2.7% | −11.1% | 17,745 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 7 @ $777.46 | $5K | −0.0% of holding | +2.7% | −11.1% | 17,796 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 5 @ $779.69 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | +2.7% | −11.1% | 17,789 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 3 @ $780.69 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | +2.7% | −11.1% | 17,786 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 2 @ $787.34 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | +2.7% | −11.1% | 17,743 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 2 @ $782.62 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | +2.7% | −11.1% | 17,782 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 2 @ $781.21 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | +2.7% | −11.1% | 17,784 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 2 @ $778.30 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | +2.7% | −11.1% | 17,794 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Zoghbi Huda Y | director | Sale | 331 @ $780.45 | $258K | −11.1% of holding | −1.2% | −6.1% | 2,650 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Zoghbi Huda Y | director | Sale | 298 @ $782.10 | $233K | −12.2% of holding | −1.2% | −6.1% | 2,143 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Zoghbi Huda Y | director | Sale | 220 @ $783.29 | $172K | −10.3% of holding | −1.2% | −6.1% | 1,923 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Zoghbi Huda Y | director | Sale | 209 @ $781.28 | $163K | −7.9% of holding | −1.2% | −6.1% | 2,441 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Zoghbi Huda Y | director | Sale | 208 @ $779.55 | $162K | −6.5% of holding | −1.2% | −6.1% | 2,981 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Zoghbi Huda Y | director | Sale | 160 @ $784.45 | $126K | −8.3% of holding | −1.2% | −6.1% | 1,763 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Zoghbi Huda Y | director | Sale | 56 @ $785.61 | $44K | −3.2% of holding | −1.2% | −6.1% | 1,707 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Zoghbi Huda Y | director | Sale | 53 @ $778.47 | $41K | −1.6% of holding | −1.2% | −6.1% | 3,189 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Zoghbi Huda Y | director | Sale | 50 @ $775.50 | $39K | −1.5% of holding | −1.2% | −6.1% | 3,242 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Zoghbi Huda Y | director | Sale | 49 @ $774.68 | $38K | −1.5% of holding | −1.2% | −6.1% | 3,292 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Zoghbi Huda Y | director | Sale | 4 @ $790.00 | $3K | −0.2% of holding | −1.2% | −6.1% | 1,703 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Pitofsky Jason | officer | Sale | 563 @ $778.35 | $438K | −10.5% of holding | +1.9% | −9.2% | 4,813 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Pitofsky Jason | officer | Sale | 521 @ $776.43 | $405K | −8.3% of holding | +1.9% | −9.2% | 5,767 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Pitofsky Jason | officer | Sale | 391 @ $777.51 | $304K | −6.8% of holding | +1.9% | −9.2% | 5,376 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Pitofsky Jason | officer | Sale | 205 @ $779.56 | $160K | −4.3% of holding | +1.9% | −9.2% | 4,608 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Pitofsky Jason | officer | Sale | 144 @ $783.23 | $113K | −3.2% of holding | +1.9% | −9.2% | 4,326 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Pitofsky Jason | officer | Sale | 75 @ $780.06 | $59K | −1.6% of holding | +1.9% | −9.2% | 4,533 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Sale | 57 @ $777.56 | $44K | −0.3% of holding | +1.9% | −9.2% | 17,835 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Pitofsky Jason | officer | Sale | 53 @ $785.72 | $42K | −1.2% of holding | +1.9% | −9.2% | 4,272 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Pitofsky Jason | officer | Sale | 37 @ $782.67 | $29K | −0.8% of holding | +1.9% | −9.2% | 4,470 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
139 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Guarini Kathryn | director | Option exercise | 400 | 1,003 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Guarini Kathryn | director | Option exercise | 400 | 1,158 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | LAROSA JOSEPH J | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,019 | 36,373 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | LAROSA JOSEPH J | officer | Option exercise | 12,282 | 45,392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | LAROSA JOSEPH J | officer | Option exercise | 12,282 | 12,283 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fenimore Christopher R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,599 | 19,984 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fenimore Christopher R. | officer | Option exercise | 6,283 | 24,583 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fenimore Christopher R. | officer | Option exercise | 6,283 | 6,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Zoghbi Huda Y | director | Option exercise | 800 | 2,503 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Guarini Kathryn | director | Option exercise | 400 | 1,003 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Zoghbi Huda Y | director | Option exercise | 800 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Guarini Kathryn | director | Option exercise | 400 | 1,558 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Zoghbi Huda Y | director | Option exercise | 1,638 | 3,341 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Zoghbi Huda Y | director | Option exercise | 1,638 | 800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Pitofsky Jason | officer | Option exercise | 1,000 | 6,308 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Pitofsky Jason | officer | Option exercise | 1,000 | 905 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | Bassler Bonnie L | director | Option exercise | 1,500 | 3,203 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | Bassler Bonnie L | director | Option exercise | 1,500 | 2,861 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | COLES N ANTHONY | director | Award / grant | 1,962 | 1,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Award / grant | 155 | 17,903 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | RYAN ARTHUR F | director | Award / grant | 1,962 | 1,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Zoghbi Huda Y | director | Award / grant | 155 | 1,703 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Zoghbi Huda Y | director | Award / grant | 1,962 | 1,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | BROWN MICHAEL S | director | Award / grant | 155 | 1,703 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | BROWN MICHAEL S | director | Award / grant | 1,962 | 1,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Bassler Bonnie L | director | Award / grant | 1,962 | 1,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Bassler Bonnie L | director | Award / grant | 155 | 1,703 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | GOLDSTEIN JOSEPH L | director | Award / grant | 155 | 6,703 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | GOLDSTEIN JOSEPH L | director | Award / grant | 1,962 | 1,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Guarini Kathryn | director | Award / grant | 155 | 603 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Guarini Kathryn | director | Award / grant | 1,962 | 1,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | COLES N ANTHONY | director | Award / grant | 155 | 1,714 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | SING GEORGE L | director | Award / grant | 155 | 31,007 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | SING GEORGE L | director | Award / grant | 1,962 | 1,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | POON CHRISTINE A | director | Award / grant | 155 | 5,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | POON CHRISTINE A | director | Award / grant | 1,962 | 1,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Thompson Craig B. | director | Award / grant | 155 | 775 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Thompson Craig B. | director | Award / grant | 1,962 | 1,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Schenkein David P | director | Award / grant | 155 | 603 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Schenkein David P | director | Award / grant | 1,962 | 1,962 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | purchase | 2026-03-12 | 2026-02-12 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-12-15 | 2025-11-18 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-10-03 | 2025-09-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-26 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.