REFI · TickerCove

REFIChicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Mortgageas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.01 · now $11.01 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, REFI has typically landed between $10.07 and $12.09 — a range of −8.5% to +9.8% from the issuance price $11.01.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,176 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-12-08 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.01) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$11.01 · 58% of range

$9.76 low$11.92 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.3%

typical move · IQR 6.6%

−8.5%worst (p90)+9.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where REFI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11.01 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $11.01 (+0.0%)
typical $11.04 (+0.3%)
middle 50% $10.68–$11.41
90% range $10.07–$12.09

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,176 windows spanning 2021-12-08 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2022-04-20	−18.2%	−18.2%	+0.2%
2022-04-21	−18.0%	−18.0%	+2.8%
2022-06-07	−14.2%	−14.7%	+0.0%
3 best
2021-12-20	+23.8%	+0.0%	+23.8%
2021-12-22	+20.6%	+0.0%	+23.8%
2021-12-21	+20.2%	−0.1%	+23.7%

1,176 overlapping windows · 2021-12-08 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

60%

+3.1%

n=5

Feb

60%

+1.3%

n=5

Mar

−4.8%

n=5

Apr

60%

+1.7%

n=5

May

40%

−1.1%

n=5

Jun

40%

−0.6%

n=5

Jul

40%

−3.4%

n=5

Aug

60%

+5.4%

n=5

Sep

60%

−1.5%

n=5

Oct

50%

−0.8%

n=4

Nov

75%

+6.3%

n=4

Dec

25%

+1.6%

n=4

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-27	Mazarakis John	director	Purchase	7,530 @ $10.67	$80K	+1.5% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	526,562	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-26	Mazarakis John	director	Purchase	40,181 @ $10.67	$429K	+8.4% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	519,032	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-21	Mazarakis John	director	Purchase	145 @ $10.67	$2K	+0.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	478,851	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-19	Sack Peter	director	Purchase	2,000 @ $10.39	$21K	+1.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	123,356	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-19	Sack Peter	director	Purchase	1,500 @ $10.53	$16K	+1.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	121,356	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18	Sack Peter	director	Purchase	1,500 @ $10.43	$16K	+1.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	119,856	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Cappell Anthony	director	Purchase	45,000 @ $10.40	$468K	+10.7% of holding	+9.6%	not yet — horizon still open	466,706	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Mazarakis John	director	Purchase	25,000 @ $10.25	$256K	+5.5% of holding	+9.6%	not yet — horizon still open	478,706	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-16	Mazarakis John	director	Purchase	8,000 @ $12.75	$102K	+2.0% of holding	+0.3%	−2.1%	416,607	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-15	Papastavrou Jason D	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $12.62	$126K	+25.3% of holding	−0.4%	−4.2%	49,546	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-15	Papastavrou Jason D	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $12.71	$64K	ownership Δ n/a	−0.4%	−4.2%	5,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-15	Papastavrou Jason D	director	Purchase	3,000 @ $12.68	$38K	ownership Δ n/a	−0.4%	−4.2%	3,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-15	Kite David	officer	Purchase	2,500 @ $12.70	$32K	+4.4% of holding	−0.4%	−4.2%	59,516	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-14	Sack Peter	director	Purchase	8,150 @ $12.43	$101K	+11.1% of holding	−0.4%	−3.6%	81,257	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-14	Konigsberg Brandon	director	Purchase	7,000 @ $12.33	$86K	+34.1% of holding	−0.4%	−3.6%	27,546	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-14	Kite David	officer	Purchase	2,500 @ $12.31	$31K	+4.6% of holding	−0.4%	−3.6%	57,016	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-01	Mazarakis John	director	Purchase	7,500 @ $12.43	$93K	+1.9% of holding	+0.4%	−4.1%	408,607	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-09	Silverman Phillip	officer	Purchase	769 @ $13.00	$10K	+2.0% of holding	+7.0%	−25.5%	39,054	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

17 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-04-20	Mazarakis John	director	Award / grant	37,099	453,706	Form 4
2026-04-20	Stavola Elizabeth Mary	director	Award / grant	6,324	6,324	Form 4
2026-04-20	Sack Peter	director	Award / grant	37,099	118,356	Form 4
2026-04-20	Silverman Phillip	officer	Award / grant	32,462	71,516	Form 4
2026-04-20	Kite David	officer	Award / grant	37,099	96,615	Form 4
2026-04-20	Konigsberg Brandon	director	Award / grant	6,324	33,870	Form 4
2026-04-20	Papastavrou Jason D	director	Award / grant	6,324	55,870	Form 4
2026-04-20	Cappell Anthony	director	Award / grant	37,099	421,706	Form 4
2025-04-01	Steiner Michael L.	director	Award / grant	5,071	274,109	Form 4
2025-04-01	Bodmeier Andreas	officer	Award / grant	28,398	391,534	Form 4
2025-04-01	Cappell Anthony	director	Award / grant	28,398	384,607	Form 4
2025-04-01	Silverman Phillip	officer	Award / grant	8,993	38,285	Form 4
2025-04-01	Kite David	officer	Award / grant	28,398	54,516	Form 4
2025-04-01	Konigsberg Brandon	director	Award / grant	5,071	20,546	Form 4
2025-04-01	Mazarakis John	director	Award / grant	28,398	401,107	Form 4
2025-04-01	Sack Peter	director	Award / grant	28,398	73,107	Form 4
2025-04-01	Papastavrou Jason D	director	Award / grant	5,071	39,546	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i