Issued 2026-09-16 at $9.48 · now $9.48 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, REAL has typically landed between $6.37 and $14.29 — a range of −32.8% to +50.7% from the issuance price $9.48.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,793 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-06-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($9.48) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where REAL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $9.48 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $9.48 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $9.21 (-2.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $7.53–$10.89
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.37–$14.29
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,793 windows spanning 2019-06-28 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −65.7% | −65.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-24 | −61.5% | −63.5% | +0.1% |
| 2022-04-25 | −58.2% | −58.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-11-11 | +148.1% | +0.0% | +148.1% |
| 2024-11-08 | +141.0% | +0.0% | +141.0% |
| 2024-11-07 | +139.6% | +0.0% | +139.6% |
1,793 overlapping windows · 2019-06-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
29%
+0.2%
n=7
Feb
14%
−11.5%
n=7
Mar
14%
−1.8%
n=7
Apr
57%
+11.0%
n=7
May
43%
−7.1%
n=7
Jun
43%
+5.8%
n=7
Jul
63%
+2.7%
n=8
Aug
25%
−8.2%
n=8
Sep
50%
+8.5%
n=8
Oct
43%
−3.7%
n=7
Nov
71%
+25.5%
n=7
Dec
57%
+13.3%
n=7
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Sahi Levesque Rati | officer | Sale | 56,145 @ $10.98 | $616K | −3.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,496,844 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Madan Gopal Ajay | officer | Sale | 23,581 @ $10.98 | $259K | −2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,108,860 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Sahi Levesque Rati | officer | Sale | 20,216 @ $10.98 | $222K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,552,989 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Suko Todd A | officer | Sale | 10,895 @ $10.97 | $120K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 594,569 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Lo Steve Ming | officer | Sale | 8,985 @ $10.97 | $99K | −4.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 178,317 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Friang Luke Thomas | officer | Sale | 8,528 @ $10.98 | $94K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 511,149 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Friang Luke Thomas | officer | Sale | 8,485 @ $10.98 | $93K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 522,191 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Sahi Levesque Rati | officer | Sale | 8,071 @ $10.98 | $89K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,573,205 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Madan Gopal Ajay | officer | Sale | 8,067 @ $10.98 | $89K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,137,211 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Madan Gopal Ajay | officer | Sale | 4,770 @ $10.98 | $52K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,132,441 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Suko Todd A | officer | Sale | 4,193 @ $10.98 | $46K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 587,897 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Friang Luke Thomas | officer | Sale | 2,514 @ $10.98 | $28K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 519,677 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Friang Luke Thomas | officer | Sale | 2,501 @ $10.98 | $27K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 508,648 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Suko Todd A | officer | Sale | 2,479 @ $10.98 | $27K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 592,090 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Lo Steve Ming | officer | Sale | 2,167 @ $10.97 | $24K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 187,302 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Lo Steve Ming | officer | Sale | 1,407 @ $10.98 | $15K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 176,910 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Sahi Levesque Rati | officer | Sale | 53,994 @ $9.25 | $499K | −3.3% of holding | +32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,589,038 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Madan Gopal Ajay | officer | Sale | 22,678 @ $9.25 | $210K | −1.9% of holding | +32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,157,623 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Sahi Levesque Rati | officer | Sale | 19,438 @ $9.25 | $180K | −1.2% of holding | +32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,643,032 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Suko Todd A | officer | Sale | 10,762 @ $9.25 | $100K | −1.7% of holding | +32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 611,985 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Lo Steve Ming | officer | Sale | 8,640 @ $9.25 | $80K | −4.3% of holding | +32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 192,906 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Friang Luke Thomas | officer | Sale | 8,202 @ $9.25 | $76K | −1.5% of holding | +32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 535,498 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Friang Luke Thomas | officer | Sale | 8,159 @ $9.25 | $75K | −1.5% of holding | +32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 543,700 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Sahi Levesque Rati | officer | Sale | 7,762 @ $9.25 | $72K | −0.5% of holding | +32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,581,276 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Madan Gopal Ajay | officer | Sale | 7,758 @ $9.25 | $72K | −0.7% of holding | +32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,150,859 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Madan Gopal Ajay | officer | Sale | 4,587 @ $9.25 | $42K | −0.4% of holding | +32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,145,278 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Suko Todd A | officer | Sale | 4,142 @ $9.25 | $38K | −0.7% of holding | +32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 607,843 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Suko Todd A | officer | Sale | 2,449 @ $9.25 | $23K | −0.4% of holding | +32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 605,394 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Friang Luke Thomas | officer | Sale | 2,417 @ $9.25 | $22K | −0.5% of holding | +32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 530,676 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Friang Luke Thomas | officer | Sale | 2,405 @ $9.25 | $22K | −0.4% of holding | +32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 533,093 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Lo Steve Ming | officer | Sale | 2,084 @ $9.25 | $19K | −1.1% of holding | +32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 190,822 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Lo Steve Ming | officer | Sale | 1,353 @ $9.25 | $13K | −0.7% of holding | +32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 189,469 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Madan Gopal Ajay | officer | Sale | 51,585 @ $9.29 | $479K | −4.2% of holding | +20.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,179,307 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Sahi Levesque Rati | officer | Sale | 54,780 @ $10.72 | $587K | −3.6% of holding | −15.3% | −9.7% | 1,482,779 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Sahi Levesque Rati | officer | Sale | 26,294 @ $10.72 | $282K | −1.7% of holding | −15.3% | −9.7% | 1,557,280 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Madan Gopal Ajay | officer | Sale | 23,511 @ $10.72 | $252K | −2.0% of holding | −15.3% | −9.7% | 1,132,581 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Sahi Levesque Rati | officer | Sale | 19,721 @ $10.72 | $211K | −1.3% of holding | −15.3% | −9.7% | 1,537,559 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Suko Todd A | officer | Sale | 15,777 @ $10.72 | $169K | −2.7% of holding | −15.3% | −9.7% | 577,556 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Sahi Levesque Rati | officer | Sale | 15,339 @ $10.72 | $164K | −1.0% of holding | −15.3% | −9.7% | 1,583,574 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Suko Todd A | officer | Sale | 12,271 @ $10.72 | $132K | −2.1% of holding | −15.3% | −9.7% | 565,285 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Suko Todd A | officer | Sale | 9,390 @ $10.72 | $101K | −1.6% of holding | −15.3% | −9.7% | 593,333 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Friang Luke Thomas | officer | Sale | 8,848 @ $10.72 | $95K | −1.8% of holding | −15.3% | −9.7% | 490,417 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Lo Steve Ming | officer | Sale | 8,796 @ $10.72 | $94K | −4.9% of holding | −15.3% | −9.7% | 172,351 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Friang Luke Thomas | officer | Sale | 8,321 @ $10.72 | $89K | −1.7% of holding | −15.3% | −9.7% | 482,096 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Madan Gopal Ajay | officer | Sale | 7,870 @ $10.72 | $84K | −0.7% of holding | −15.3% | −9.7% | 1,124,711 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Lo Steve Ming | officer | Sale | 6,051 @ $10.72 | $65K | −3.2% of holding | −15.3% | −9.7% | 181,147 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Sahi Levesque Rati | officer | Sale | 5,265 @ $10.72 | $56K | −0.3% of holding | −15.3% | −9.7% | 1,598,913 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Suko Todd A | officer | Sale | 4,722 @ $10.72 | $51K | −0.8% of holding | −15.3% | −9.7% | 560,563 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Suko Todd A | officer | Sale | 3,787 @ $10.72 | $41K | −0.6% of holding | −15.3% | −9.7% | 602,723 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Friang Luke Thomas | officer | Sale | 2,440 @ $10.72 | $26K | −0.5% of holding | −15.3% | −9.7% | 479,656 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Lo Steve Ming | officer | Sale | 2,115 @ $10.72 | $23K | −1.2% of holding | −15.3% | −9.7% | 170,236 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Lo Steve Ming | officer | Sale | 43,926 @ $14.45 | $635K | −19.0% of holding | +13.8% | −39.4% | 187,198 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-08 | Lo Steve Ming | officer | Sale | 13,900 @ $14.13 | $196K | −5.7% of holding | +15.2% | −41.8% | 231,124 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Lo Steve Ming | officer | Sale | 3,974 @ $14.41 | $57K | −1.6% of holding | +15.2% | −41.8% | 245,024 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Lo Steve Ming | officer | Sale | 555 @ $14.45 | $8K | −0.2% of holding | +16.8% | −39.9% | 248,998 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Madan Gopal Ajay | officer | Sale | 28,520 @ $14.73 | $420K | −2.4% of holding | +11.4% | −45.3% | 1,156,092 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Suko Todd A | officer | Sale | 72,933 @ $14.10 | $1.0M | −10.7% of holding | +9.4% | −46.1% | 606,510 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Lo Steve Ming | officer | Sale | 59,789 @ $14.46 | $864K | −19.3% of holding | +9.4% | −46.1% | 249,553 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Sahi Levesque Rati | officer | Sale | 53,566 @ $13.06 | $700K | −3.2% of holding | +10.4% | −43.4% | 1,604,178 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-21 | Madan Gopal Ajay | officer | Sale | 22,499 @ $13.06 | $294K | −1.9% of holding | +10.4% | −43.4% | 1,192,309 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
83 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | KATZ KAREN | director | Award / grant | 14,150 | 253,883 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Coleman Caretha | director | Award / grant | 14,150 | 265,933 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | KROLIK ROBERT J | director | Award / grant | 14,150 | 205,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | McCaffrey Mark | director | Award / grant | 14,150 | 27,755 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | McKeehan Jennifer | director | Award / grant | 14,150 | 18,397 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Miller James R. | director | Award / grant | 14,150 | 198,066 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | McCaffrey Mark | director | Award / grant | 742 | 13,605 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | KATZ KAREN | director | Award / grant | 1,378 | 239,733 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-13 | Lo Steve Ming | officer | Award / grant | 31,310 | 201,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-13 | McKeehan Jennifer | director | Award / grant | 4,247 | 4,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | McCaffrey Mark | director | Award / grant | 963 | 12,863 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | KATZ KAREN | director | Award / grant | 1,988 | 238,355 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Sahi Levesque Rati | officer | Award / grant | 179,691 | 1,662,470 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Suko Todd A | officer | Award / grant | 63,708 | 624,271 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Madan Gopal Ajay | officer | Award / grant | 106,181 | 1,230,892 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Friang Luke Thomas | officer | Award / grant | 72,203 | 551,859 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Leondakis Niki | director | Award / grant | 554 | 207,489 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | KATZ KAREN | director | Award / grant | 1,107 | 236,367 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-13 | Lo Steve Ming | officer | Option exercise | 13,542 | 345,310 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-13 | Lo Steve Ming | officer | Option exercise | 13,542 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-22 | McCaffrey Mark | director | Award / grant | 11,900 | 11,900 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Leondakis Niki | director | Award / grant | 823 | 206,935 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | KATZ KAREN | director | Award / grant | 1,528 | 235,260 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Sahi Levesque Rati | officer | Disposition | 56,214 | 1,701,214 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Madan Gopal Ajay | officer | Disposition | 23,611 | 1,221,128 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Sahi Levesque Rati | officer | Disposition | 20,237 | 1,757,428 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Sahi Levesque Rati | officer | Disposition | 15,740 | 1,777,665 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Suko Todd A | officer | Disposition | 12,593 | 790,635 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Suko Todd A | officer | Disposition | 9,445 | 803,228 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Lo Steve Ming | officer | Disposition | 8,995 | 331,768 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Friang Luke Thomas | officer | Disposition | 8,539 | 517,884 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Friang Luke Thomas | officer | Disposition | 8,495 | 526,423 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Madan Gopal Ajay | officer | Disposition | 8,077 | 1,213,051 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Lo Steve Ming | officer | Disposition | 6,746 | 340,763 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Lo Steve Ming | officer | Disposition | 5,622 | 347,509 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Sahi Levesque Rati | officer | Disposition | 5,027 | 1,793,405 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Suko Todd A | officer | Disposition | 4,846 | 785,789 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Sahi Levesque Rati | officer | Disposition | 4,612 | 1,798,432 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Suko Todd A | officer | Disposition | 3,519 | 812,673 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Suko Todd A | officer | Disposition | 2,767 | 816,192 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.