REARare Earths Americas, Inc.Basic Materials · Other Precious Metalsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.98 · now $10.98 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, REA has typically landed between $6.83 and $15.93 — a range of −37.8% to +45.1% from the issuance price $10.98.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2005-01-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.98) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where REA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.98 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$6.83worst · -37.8%$15.93best · +45.1%
  • now $10.98 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $8.74 (-20.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $6.75–$10.72
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.83–$15.93
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,685 windows spanning 2005-01-04 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2011-08-03−99.8%−99.8%+0.0%
2014-05-12−99.4%−99.4%+0.0%
2014-05-21−99.4%−99.4%+0.0%
3 best
2011-06-29+41682.3%+0.0%+41682.3%
2015-10-21+16255.7%+0.0%+16255.7%
2015-09-29+16255.7%+0.0%+16255.7%

2,685 overlapping windows · 2005-01-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
8%
+33.7%
n=13
Feb
29%
+86.9%
n=14
Mar
29%
−4.1%
n=14
Apr
21%
+16.9%
n=14
May
21%
+53.3%
n=14
Jun
47%
+178.9%
n=15
Jul
20%
−7.6%
n=15
Aug
27%
+1069.9%
n=15
Sep
36%
+126.3%
n=14
Oct
31%
+1237.4%
n=13
Nov
38%
+64.1%
n=13
Dec
15%
−6.5%
n=13

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$28$9↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

41 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-22Grafton Jennifer SdirectorOption exercise30,000131,058Form 4
2026-08-22Swartz Donald SdirectorOption exercise135,000419,226Form 4
2026-08-22Swartz Donald SdirectorOption exercise135,0000Form 4
2026-08-22Grafton Jennifer SdirectorOption exercise30,0000Form 4
2026-08-22Grafton Jennifer SdirectorOption exercise30,0000Form 4
2026-08-22Swartz Donald SdirectorOption exercise135,0000Form 4
2026-08-22Swartz Donald SdirectorOption exercise135,0000Form 4
2026-08-22Grafton Jennifer SdirectorOption exercise30,0000Form 4
2026-08-22Swartz Donald SdirectorOption exercise135,0000Form 4
2026-08-22Grafton Jennifer SdirectorOption exercise30,0000Form 4
2026-08-22Grafton Jennifer SdirectorOption exercise30,0000Form 4
2026-08-22Swartz Donald SdirectorOption exercise135,0000Form 4
2026-08-22Swartz Donald SdirectorOption exercise135,0000Form 4
2026-08-22Grafton Jennifer SdirectorOption exercise30,0000Form 4
2026-08-22Grafton Jennifer SdirectorOption exercise30,0000Form 4
2026-08-22Swartz Donald SdirectorOption exercise135,0000Form 4
2026-08-22Swartz Donald SdirectorOption exercise135,0000Form 4
2026-08-12Kerr Cheryl BreezeofficerAward / grant20,00020,000Form 4
2026-08-12Grafton Jennifer SdirectorAward / grant40,00040,000Form 4
2026-08-12Swartz Donald SdirectorAward / grant200,000200,000Form 4
2026-08-12Shribman DanieldirectorAward / grant100,000100,000Form 4
2026-05-07Swartz Donald SdirectorAward / grant52,88652,886Form 4
2026-05-07ESTABROOKE IVYdirectorAward / grant4,4074,407Form 4
2026-05-07Schumann Hugo T.directorAward / grant4,4074,407Form 4
2026-05-07Lewis Reta JodirectorAward / grant4,4074,407Form 4
2026-05-07Shribman DanieldirectorAward / grant6,6106,610Form 4
2026-05-07Kerr Cheryl BreezeofficerAward / grant11,01811,018Form 4
2026-05-07Grafton Jennifer SdirectorAward / grant23,13723,137Form 4
2026-05-07Phillips Keith D.directorAward / grant4,4074,407Form 4
2026-05-07Grafton Jennifer SdirectorOption exercise101,0580Form 4
2026-05-07Swartz Donald SdirectorOption exercise284,2260Form 4
2026-05-07Shribman DanieldirectorOption exercise138,955311,350Form 4
2026-05-07Shribman DanieldirectorOption exercise138,9550Form 4
2026-05-07Grafton Jennifer SdirectorOption exercise101,058101,058Form 4
2026-05-07Grafton Jennifer SdirectorOption exercise101,0580Form 4
2026-05-07Shribman DanieldirectorOption exercise138,955311,350Form 4
2026-05-07Shribman DanieldirectorOption exercise138,9550Form 4
2026-05-07Swartz Donald SdirectorOption exercise284,226284,226Form 4
2026-05-07Swartz Donald SdirectorOption exercise284,2260Form 4
2026-05-07Grafton Jennifer SdirectorOption exercise101,058101,058Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.