Issued 2026-09-16 at $29.45 · now $29.45 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RDWR has typically landed between $24.76 and $34.20 — a range of −15.9% to +16.1% from the issuance price $29.45.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($29.45) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RDWR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $29.45 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $29.45 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $29.32 (-0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $27.55–$31.1
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $24.76–$34.2
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-25 | −30.4% | −30.4% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-26 | −30.1% | −30.1% | +1.2% |
| 2008-09-23 | −29.8% | −29.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2010-08-13 | +77.2% | +0.0% | +77.2% |
| 2010-08-18 | +59.4% | +0.0% | +68.9% |
| 2010-08-16 | +58.8% | +0.0% | +76.1% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Malka Gabriel | officer | Sale | 6,500 @ $30.00 | $195K | −11.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 47,922 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Avidan Guy | officer | Purchase | 2,000 @ $25.21 | $50K | +2.1% of holding | +7.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 95,800 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-09 | Goldriech Rivkah | officer | Sale | 750 @ $32.00 | $24K | −1.2% of holding | −14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 59,991 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Malka Gabriel | officer | Sale | 7,000 @ $30.00 | $210K | −11.4% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,422 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Goldriech Rivkah | officer | Sale | 1,375 @ $29.50 | $41K | −2.2% of holding | −3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 60,741 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Malka Gabriel | officer | Sale | 3,111 @ $29.00 | $90K | −4.8% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,422 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
7 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Aviv David Meleh | officer | Award / grant | 20,000 | 149,487 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-25 | Mazin Israel | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-25 | Pinchev Alex | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-25 | STERN STANLEY | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-25 | Zisapel Roy | director | Award / grant | 201,314 | 2,392,275 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-25 | Zisapel Roy | director | Award / grant | 250,946 | 250,946 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Zisapel Roy | director | Code W | 454,272 | 2,190,961 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.