RDNRadian Group Inc.Financial Services · Insurance - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $35.27 · now $35.27 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RDN has typically landed between $31.85 and $39.56 — a range of −9.7% to +12.2% from the issuance price $35.27.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($35.27) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where RDN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $35.27 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$31.85worst · -9.7%$39.56best · +12.2%
  • now $35.27 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $35.57 (+0.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $33.86–$37.27
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $31.85–$39.56
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,002 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-06-03−87.0%−87.0%+0.0%
2008-06-04−80.8%−85.5%+1.2%
2008-06-02−80.4%−80.4%+6.3%
3 best
2008-07-18+302.8%+0.0%+302.8%
2008-07-16+284.2%+0.0%+284.2%
2008-07-15+270.7%+0.0%+270.7%

5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
−0.4%
n=20
Feb
60%
+3.8%
n=20
Mar
50%
+3.3%
n=20
Apr
45%
−2.5%
n=20
May
60%
+2.0%
n=20
Jun
45%
−5.7%
n=20
Jul
60%
+3.4%
n=20
Aug
60%
+13.6%
n=20
Sep
50%
+3.4%
n=20
Oct
60%
−2.9%
n=20
Nov
35%
−4.0%
n=20
Dec
65%
+8.8%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$40$312026-09-14: 1 insider sale, $281K — Bartholomew Meghan2026-07-14: 1 insider sale, $780K — Hoffman Edward J2026-06-03: 2 insider sales, $41K — Conner Brad L., Bartholomew Meghan2026-06-02: 1 insider purchase, $1.7M — Weinbach Michael S2026-06-01: 1 insider purchase, $4.1M — Weinbach Michael S2026-05-29: 1 insider sale, $72K — Leyden Margaret Anne2026-05-27: 1 insider sale, $130K — CULANG HOWARD BERNARD2026-05-26: 2 insider sales, $356K — CULANG HOWARD BERNARD, Spiegel Noel Joseph2026-05-08: 1 insider sale, $570K — Hoffman Edward J2026-04-29: 1 insider sale, $555K — Hoffman Edward J2026-04-23: 1 insider sale, $540K — Hoffman Edward J2026-04-17: 1 insider sale, $455K — Hoffman Edward J2026-04-10: 1 insider sale, $70K — Hoffman Edward J2025-12-02: 1 insider sale, $497K — Ray Eric2025-10-28: 1 insider sale, $665K — Thornberry Richard G2025-09-23: 1 insider sale, $726K — Thornberry Richard G2025-09-18: 1 insider sale, $370K — Hoffman Edward J2025-08-26: 1 insider sale, $695K — Thornberry Richard G2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $695K2025-09: 2 open-market sales, $1.1M2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $665K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $497K2026-04: 4 open-market sales, $1.6M2026-05: 5 open-market sales, $1.1M2026-06: 2 open-market purchases, $5.8M2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $41K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $780K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $281K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Bartholomew Meghan — Sale on 2026-09-14, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hoffman Edward J — Sale on 2026-07-14, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Conner Brad L. — Sale on 2026-06-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bartholomew Meghan — Sale on 2026-06-03, filed 65 days after the tradeofficer Weinbach Michael S — Purchase on 2026-06-02, filed same dayofficer Weinbach Michael S — Purchase on 2026-06-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Leyden Margaret Anne — Sale on 2026-05-29, filed 3 days after the tradedirector CULANG HOWARD BERNARD — Sale on 2026-05-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector CULANG HOWARD BERNARD — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed same daydirector Spiegel Noel Joseph — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed same dayofficer Hoffman Edward J — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Hoffman Edward J — Sale on 2026-04-29, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hoffman Edward J — Sale on 2026-04-23, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hoffman Edward J — Sale on 2026-04-17, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Hoffman Edward J — Sale on 2026-04-10, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Ray Eric — Sale on 2025-12-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Thornberry Richard G — Sale on 2025-10-28, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Thornberry Richard G — Sale on 2025-09-23, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hoffman Edward J — Sale on 2025-09-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Thornberry Richard G — Sale on 2025-08-26, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14Bartholomew MeghanofficerSale7,812 @ $35.94$281K−16.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open39,203Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-14Hoffman Edward JofficerSale20,000 @ $39.00$780K−13.6% of holding−4.0%not yet — horizon still open126,543Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-03Conner Brad L.directorSale1,200 @ $33.93$41K−3.1% of holding+13.6%not yet — horizon still open37,649Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-03Bartholomew MeghanofficerSale1 @ $34.68$33−0.0% of holding+13.6%not yet — horizon still open47,015Form 4 · filed 65 days after the trade
2026-06-02Weinbach Michael SofficerPurchase49,513 @ $34.04$1.7M+41.1% of holding+14.0%not yet — horizon still open170,000Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-01Weinbach Michael SofficerPurchase120,487 @ $33.89$4.1Mownership Δ n/a+13.9%not yet — horizon still open120,487Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-29Leyden Margaret AnnedirectorSale2,070 @ $34.59$72K−23.2% of holding+12.2%not yet — horizon still open6,864Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-27CULANG HOWARD BERNARDdirectorSale3,612 @ $36.00$130K−31.0% of holding+9.6%not yet — horizon still open8,050Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-26CULANG HOWARD BERNARDdirectorSale5,000 @ $36.20$181K−30.0% of holding+6.3%not yet — horizon still open11,662Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-26Spiegel Noel JosephdirectorSale4,834 @ $36.19$175K−19.5% of holding+6.3%not yet — horizon still open20,008Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-08Hoffman Edward JofficerSale15,000 @ $38.00$570K−13.8% of holding−9.2%not yet — horizon still open93,708Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-29Hoffman Edward JofficerSale15,000 @ $37.00$555K−12.1% of holding−14.8%not yet — horizon still open108,708Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-23Hoffman Edward JofficerSale15,000 @ $36.00$540K−10.8% of holding−4.2%not yet — horizon still open123,708Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-17Hoffman Edward JofficerSale13,009 @ $35.00$455K−8.6% of holding+3.0%not yet — horizon still open138,708Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-10Hoffman Edward JofficerSale1,991 @ $35.00$70K−1.3% of holding+1.1%not yet — horizon still open151,717Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-02Ray EricofficerSale13,957 @ $35.60$497K−100.0% of holding+0.6%−15.6%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-28Thornberry Richard GdirectorSale20,000 @ $33.24$665K−2.2% of holding+8.3%+3.7%898,878Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-23Thornberry Richard GdirectorSale20,000 @ $36.28$726K−2.1% of holding−5.5%−7.1%918,878Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-18Hoffman Edward JofficerSale10,000 @ $37.00$370K−6.1% of holding−11.7%−10.2%153,708Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-26Thornberry Richard GdirectorSale20,000 @ $34.74$695K−2.1% of holding+3.3%−4.2%938,878Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-29Thornberry Richard GdirectorSale20,000 @ $33.90$678K−2.0% of holding+1.9%−11.6%958,878Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-24Thornberry Richard GdirectorSale20,000 @ $36.71$734K−2.0% of holding−12.1%−12.0%978,090Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-23Hoffman Edward JofficerSale20,000 @ $36.00$720K−11.0% of holding−11.9%−11.2%161,586Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-16Hoffman Edward JofficerSale10,000 @ $35.00$350K−5.2% of holding−6.1%−7.2%181,586Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-11Hoffman Edward JofficerSale10,000 @ $34.00$340K−5.0% of holding−3.1%−8.4%191,586Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-06Ray EricofficerSale30,000 @ $33.30$999K−68.2% of holding−0.1%−10.0%13,957Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-06CULANG HOWARD BERNARDdirectorSale8,773 @ $33.37$293K−52.1% of holding−0.1%−10.0%8,050Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-06Spiegel Noel JosephdirectorSale5,105 @ $33.66$172K−20.3% of holding−0.1%−10.0%20,008Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-06Mumford LisadirectorSale2,500 @ $33.45$84K−10.1% of holding−0.1%−10.0%22,329Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-04Hoffman Edward JofficerSale10,000 @ $33.72$337K−4.7% of holding+3.0%−7.2%201,586Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-28Thornberry Richard GdirectorSale20,000 @ $34.10$682K−2.0% of holding+1.6%−8.7%998,090Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

269 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-09CULANG HOWARD BERNARDdirectorAward / grant50414,669Form 4
2026-09-09CULANG HOWARD BERNARDdirectorAward / grant50414,669Form 4
2026-09-09CULANG HOWARD BERNARDdirectorAward / grant50414,669Form 4
2026-09-09CULANG HOWARD BERNARDdirectorAward / grant50414,669Form 4
2026-08-12McCarthy Barry CdirectorAward / grant3,4273,427Form 4
2026-08-12McCarthy Barry CdirectorAward / grant3,4273,427Form 4
2026-08-12McCarthy Barry CdirectorAward / grant3,4273,427Form 4
2026-08-12McCarthy Barry CdirectorAward / grant3,4273,427Form 4
2026-06-17CULANG HOWARD BERNARDdirectorAward / grant52114,166Form 4
2026-06-17CULANG HOWARD BERNARDdirectorAward / grant52114,166Form 4
2026-06-01Weinbach Michael SofficerAward / grant150,000150,000Form 4
2026-06-01Weinbach Michael SofficerAward / grant185,020185,020Form 4
2026-06-01Weinbach Michael SofficerAward / grant77,09077,090Form 4
2026-06-01Weinbach Michael SofficerAward / grant185,020185,020Form 4
2026-06-01Weinbach Michael SofficerAward / grant150,000150,000Form 4
2026-06-01Weinbach Michael SofficerAward / grant77,09077,090Form 4
2026-05-21Ahmad FawaddirectorAward / grant4,3004,300Form 4
2026-05-21Leyden Margaret AnnedirectorAward / grant4,3004,300Form 4
2026-05-21Spiegel Noel JosephdirectorAward / grant4,3004,300Form 4
2026-05-21CULANG HOWARD BERNARDdirectorAward / grant7,6607,660Form 4
2026-05-21Thornberry Richard GdirectorAward / grant75,25075,250Form 4
2026-05-21Thornberry Richard GdirectorAward / grant114,730114,730Form 4
2026-05-21Ray EricofficerAward / grant9,6809,680Form 4
2026-05-21Ray EricofficerAward / grant14,75014,750Form 4
2026-05-21Dickerson MaryofficerAward / grant11,29011,290Form 4
2026-05-21Dickerson MaryofficerAward / grant17,21017,210Form 4
2026-05-21Quigley RobertofficerAward / grant10,75010,750Form 4
2026-05-21Quigley RobertofficerAward / grant16,39016,390Form 4
2026-05-21Kobell DanielofficerAward / grant13,44013,440Form 4
2026-05-21Kobell DanielofficerAward / grant20,49020,490Form 4
2026-05-21Keleher StephenofficerAward / grant8,0708,070Form 4
2026-05-21Keleher StephenofficerAward / grant12,30012,300Form 4
2026-05-21Hoffman Edward JofficerAward / grant18,28018,280Form 4
2026-05-21Hoffman Edward JofficerAward / grant27,87027,870Form 4
2026-05-21Watson Richard ColinofficerAward / grant22,86022,860Form 4
2026-05-21Watson Richard ColinofficerAward / grant34,85034,850Form 4
2026-05-21Bartholomew MeghanofficerAward / grant8,0708,070Form 4
2026-05-21Bartholomew MeghanofficerAward / grant12,30012,300Form 4
2026-05-21Ray EricofficerAward / grant9,6809,680Form 4
2026-05-21Ray EricofficerAward / grant14,75014,750Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.