Issued 2026-09-16 at $157.60 · now $157.60 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RDDT has typically landed between $112.80 and $218.18 — a range of −28.4% to +38.4% from the issuance price $157.60.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
603 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-03-21 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($157.60) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RDDT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $157.6 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $157.6 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $168.91 (+7.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $147.75–$190.07
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $112.8–$218.18
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 603 windows spanning 2024-03-21 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-02-06 | −50.4% | −50.4% | +4.0% |
| 2026-01-13 | −49.4% | −49.4% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-07 | −45.5% | −52.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-10-23 | +103.4% | +0.0% | +103.4% |
| 2024-10-10 | +92.8% | +0.0% | +92.8% |
| 2024-10-24 | +86.6% | +0.0% | +101.0% |
603 overlapping windows · 2024-03-21 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+0.3%
n=2
Feb
0%
−19.0%
n=2
Mar
0%
−21.4%
n=2
Apr
67%
+3.5%
n=3
May
67%
+12.7%
n=3
Jun
67%
+16.8%
n=3
Jul
33%
−5.7%
n=3
Aug
67%
+14.6%
n=3
Sep
100%
+6.2%
n=3
Oct
50%
+35.9%
n=2
Nov
100%
+10.8%
n=2
Dec
100%
+11.2%
n=2
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 13,010 @ $164.17 | $2.1M | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,021,026 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 9,100 @ $162.34 | $1.5M | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,042,726 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 8,690 @ $163.16 | $1.4M | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,034,036 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 8,758 @ $159.13 | $1.4M | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,060,768 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 6,500 @ $165.09 | $1.1M | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,014,526 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 5,442 @ $159.84 | $870K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,055,326 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $161.06 | $564K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,051,826 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 2,700 @ $158.04 | $427K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,069,526 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 2,300 @ $165.90 | $382K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,012,226 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Sale | 10,200 @ $147.66 | $1.5M | −2.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 344,232 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $148.35 | $1.0M | −2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 337,232 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Sale | 700 @ $149.59 | $105K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 336,532 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Sale | 100 @ $151.17 | $15K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 336,432 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Sauerberg Robert A. | director | Sale | 5,128 @ $159.92 | $820K | −15.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,087 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 21,930 @ $180.00 | $3.9M | −2.0% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,057,339 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 14,000 @ $177.91 | $2.5M | −1.3% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,091,839 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 12,570 @ $178.71 | $2.2M | −1.2% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,079,269 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 11,380 @ $176.73 | $2.0M | −1.0% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,105,839 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 5,324 @ $175.70 | $935K | −0.5% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,117,219 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Sale | 5,100 @ $178.09 | $908K | −1.3% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 380,314 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 3,200 @ $180.71 | $578K | −0.3% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,054,139 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Sale | 2,800 @ $178.95 | $501K | −0.7% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 377,514 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Sale | 2,808 @ $177.04 | $497K | −0.7% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 385,414 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 2,796 @ $174.82 | $489K | −0.2% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,122,543 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 2,400 @ $181.88 | $437K | −0.2% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,051,739 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Sale | 2,292 @ $176.11 | $404K | −0.6% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 388,222 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Sale | 2,200 @ $180.15 | $396K | −0.6% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 375,314 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Sale | 1,300 @ $175.04 | $228K | −0.3% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 390,514 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $182.70 | $183K | −0.1% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,050,739 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Sale | 600 @ $182.19 | $109K | −0.2% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 374,114 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Sale | 600 @ $181.06 | $109K | −0.2% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 374,714 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 400 @ $183.95 | $74K | −0.0% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,050,339 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Sale | 200 @ $182.82 | $37K | −0.1% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 373,914 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Sale | 100 @ $184.06 | $18K | −0.0% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 373,814 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Sale | 9,521 @ $159.87 | $1.5M | −2.4% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 379,893 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Sale | 4,564 @ $160.56 | $733K | −1.2% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 375,329 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $161.78 | $194K | −0.3% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 374,129 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Sale | 800 @ $158.90 | $127K | −0.2% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 389,414 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Sale | 700 @ $154.51 | $108K | −0.2% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 391,114 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Sale | 600 @ $155.60 | $93K | −0.2% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 390,514 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Sale | 315 @ $162.45 | $51K | −0.1% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 373,814 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Sale | 300 @ $157.18 | $47K | −0.1% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 390,214 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 10,767 @ $198.03 | $2.1M | −1.0% of holding | −23.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,063,539 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 5,600 @ $196.83 | $1.1M | −0.5% of holding | −23.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,074,306 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Sale | 5,046 @ $198.27 | $1.0M | −1.3% of holding | −23.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 378,697 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 4,900 @ $198.94 | $975K | −0.5% of holding | −23.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,058,639 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 4,047 @ $195.79 | $792K | −0.4% of holding | −23.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,079,906 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 4,053 @ $195.10 | $791K | −0.4% of holding | −23.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,083,953 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 3,616 @ $200.89 | $726K | −0.3% of holding | −23.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,051,839 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 3,184 @ $199.89 | $636K | −0.3% of holding | −23.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,055,455 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Sale | 2,600 @ $195.34 | $508K | −0.7% of holding | −23.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 388,214 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Sale | 2,490 @ $196.46 | $489K | −0.6% of holding | −23.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 385,724 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Sale | 1,981 @ $197.58 | $391K | −0.5% of holding | −23.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 383,743 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Sale | 1,883 @ $199.44 | $376K | −0.5% of holding | −23.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 376,814 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Sale | 1,600 @ $200.47 | $321K | −0.4% of holding | −23.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 375,214 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Sale | 900 @ $201.31 | $181K | −0.2% of holding | −23.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 374,314 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 700 @ $201.94 | $141K | −0.1% of holding | −23.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,051,139 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 700 @ $193.85 | $136K | −0.1% of holding | −23.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,088,006 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Sale | 600 @ $194.19 | $117K | −0.2% of holding | −23.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 390,814 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 500 @ $205.85 | $103K | −0.0% of holding | −23.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,050,539 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
94 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Option exercise | 43,547 | 1,072,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Option exercise | 16,453 | 1,028,679 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Option exercise | 43,547 | 45,437 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Option exercise | 16,453 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Option exercise | 18,000 | 354,432 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Option exercise | 18,000 | 1,045,255 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Withheld for tax | 40,336 | 336,432 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Withheld for tax | 38,113 | 1,012,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Vollero Andrew | director | Withheld for tax | 10,319 | 233,889 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Lee Benjamin Seong | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,887 | 71,536 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Reynolds Michelle Marie | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,265 | 13,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Conversion | 2,954 | 376,768 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Conversion | 2,954 | 3,493,486 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Option exercise | 18,000 | 391,814 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 1,125,339 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Option exercise | 60,000 | 1,110,339 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Option exercise | 18,000 | 1,063,255 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Option exercise | 60,000 | 16,453 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 1,443,074 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Option exercise | 18,000 | 391,814 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Option exercise | 18,000 | 1,081,255 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Option exercise | 18,000 | 391,814 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Option exercise | 39,167 | 1,089,506 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Option exercise | 39,167 | 76,453 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Option exercise | 18,000 | 1,099,255 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | Seibel Michael | director | Award / grant | 103 | 5,436 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | Newhouse Steven O | director | Award / grant | 115 | 13,187 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | Gale Mary Porter | director | Award / grant | 107 | 9,759 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | FARRELL SARAH E | director | Award / grant | 126 | 9,862 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | Habiger David C | director | Award / grant | 283 | 37,264 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | FILIKRUSHEL PATRICIA | director | Award / grant | 122 | 31,755 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Option exercise | 18,000 | 391,814 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Option exercise | 18,000 | 1,117,255 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Option exercise | 39,166 | 1,089,505 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Option exercise | 39,166 | 115,620 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Option exercise | 18,000 | 391,814 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Huffman Steve Ladd | director | Option exercise | 18,000 | 1,135,255 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Seibel Michael | director | Award / grant | 1,714 | 5,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Sauerberg Robert A. | director | Award / grant | 1,714 | 3,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Newhouse Steven O | director | Award / grant | 1,714 | 13,072 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.