Issued 2026-09-16 at $253.92 · now $253.92 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RCL has typically landed between $205.82 and $314.62 — a range of −18.9% to +23.9% from the issuance price $253.92.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($253.92) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RCL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $253.92 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $253.92 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $262.11 (+3.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $236.56–$287.65
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $205.82–$314.62
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −79.8% | −79.8% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −79.6% | −79.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −78.1% | −79.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-05-07 | +97.5% | −9.2% | +97.5% |
| 2020-05-06 | +92.3% | −4.4% | +92.3% |
| 2008-11-21 | +89.5% | +0.0% | +92.8% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$78.7B
market cap
$16.39
EPS (TTM)
17.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-28
next earnings
Revenue$17.9B
'20'25
Net income$4.3B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.2B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr23.8%
'20'25
ROE · by yr42.6%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr2.26
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$-893.45
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$390.43
- Analyst target · range $280.00–$425.00$350.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$253.92
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
61%
+1.4%
n=18
Feb
42%
−0.4%
n=19
Mar
47%
−1.8%
n=19
Apr
53%
+5.8%
n=19
May
63%
+1.3%
n=19
Jun
42%
−2.4%
n=19
Jul
68%
+4.2%
n=19
Aug
58%
+3.9%
n=19
Sep
58%
+1.7%
n=19
Oct
61%
+2.9%
n=18
Nov
72%
+5.2%
n=18
Dec
61%
+4.9%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Bayley Michael W | officer | Sale | 12,811 @ $315.99 | $4.0M | −22.0% of holding | −17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 45,297 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 152,515 @ $310.78 | $47.4M | −0.9% of holding | −7.9% | −21.9% | 16,528,871 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-27 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 31,560 @ $312.53 | $9.9M | −0.2% of holding | −7.9% | −21.9% | 16,476,031 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-27 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 25,910 @ $313.48 | $8.1M | −0.2% of holding | −7.9% | −21.9% | 16,450,121 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-27 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 21,280 @ $311.22 | $6.6M | −0.1% of holding | −7.9% | −21.9% | 16,507,591 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-27 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 14,211 @ $314.40 | $4.5M | −0.1% of holding | −7.9% | −21.9% | 16,435,910 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-26 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 156,628 @ $318.64 | $49.9M | −0.9% of holding | −9.7% | −22.2% | 16,745,949 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 106,947 @ $317.71 | $34.0M | −0.6% of holding | −9.7% | −22.2% | 16,902,577 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 50,784 @ $319.54 | $16.2M | −0.3% of holding | −9.7% | −22.2% | 16,695,165 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 20,617 @ $316.92 | $6.5M | −0.1% of holding | −9.7% | −22.2% | 17,009,524 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 13,779 @ $320.35 | $4.4M | −0.1% of holding | −9.7% | −22.2% | 16,681,386 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 7,271 @ $315.62 | $2.3M | −0.0% of holding | −9.7% | −22.2% | 17,030,141 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 42,351 @ $317.33 | $13.4M | −0.2% of holding | −5.3% | −17.5% | 17,075,571 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 42,240 @ $313.01 | $13.2M | −0.2% of holding | −5.3% | −17.5% | 17,165,277 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 33,418 @ $318.08 | $10.6M | −0.2% of holding | −5.3% | −17.5% | 17,042,153 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 24,360 @ $316.24 | $7.7M | −0.1% of holding | −5.3% | −17.5% | 17,117,922 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 13,271 @ $314.11 | $4.2M | −0.1% of holding | −5.3% | −17.5% | 17,152,006 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 9,724 @ $315.16 | $3.1M | −0.1% of holding | −5.3% | −17.5% | 17,142,282 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 4,637 @ $318.87 | $1.5M | −0.0% of holding | −5.3% | −17.5% | 17,037,516 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 104 @ $320.04 | $33K | −0.0% of holding | −5.3% | −17.5% | 17,037,412 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 121,143 @ $316.59 | $38.4M | −0.7% of holding | −7.2% | −18.7% | 17,310,660 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-24 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 93,423 @ $317.32 | $29.6M | −0.5% of holding | −7.2% | −18.7% | 17,217,237 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-24 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 34,972 @ $313.26 | $11.0M | −0.2% of holding | −7.2% | −18.7% | 17,474,273 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-24 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 26,450 @ $315.67 | $8.3M | −0.2% of holding | −7.2% | −18.7% | 17,431,803 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-24 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 22,007 @ $312.56 | $6.9M | −0.1% of holding | −7.2% | −18.7% | 17,509,245 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-24 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 16,020 @ $314.42 | $5.0M | −0.1% of holding | −7.2% | −18.7% | 17,458,253 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-24 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 11,540 @ $311.42 | $3.6M | −0.1% of holding | −7.2% | −18.7% | 17,531,252 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-24 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 9,720 @ $318.30 | $3.1M | −0.1% of holding | −7.2% | −18.7% | 17,207,517 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-24 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 9,836 @ $310.58 | $3.1M | −0.1% of holding | −7.2% | −18.7% | 17,542,792 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-23 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 3,640 @ $315.30 | $1.1M | −0.0% of holding | −5.2% | −14.6% | 17,564,788 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 3,326 @ $319.41 | $1.1M | −0.0% of holding | −5.2% | −14.6% | 17,555,108 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 3,320 @ $314.80 | $1.0M | −0.0% of holding | −5.2% | −14.6% | 17,568,428 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 2,722 @ $317.54 | $864K | −0.0% of holding | −5.2% | −14.6% | 17,559,607 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 2,480 @ $320.46 | $795K | −0.0% of holding | −5.2% | −14.6% | 17,552,628 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 2,459 @ $316.85 | $779K | −0.0% of holding | −5.2% | −14.6% | 17,562,329 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 1,173 @ $318.48 | $374K | −0.0% of holding | −5.2% | −14.6% | 17,558,434 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 20 @ $310.12 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | −5.2% | −14.6% | 17,571,748 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 63,365 @ $315.27 | $20.0M | −0.4% of holding | −6.3% | −18.0% | 17,583,431 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 18,920 @ $314.56 | $6.0M | −0.1% of holding | −6.3% | −18.0% | 17,646,796 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 11,397 @ $316.35 | $3.6M | −0.1% of holding | −6.3% | −18.0% | 17,572,034 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 5,516 @ $313.49 | $1.7M | −0.0% of holding | −6.3% | −18.0% | 17,665,716 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 4,651 @ $310.54 | $1.4M | −0.0% of holding | −6.3% | −18.0% | 17,676,414 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 3,175 @ $311.43 | $989K | −0.0% of holding | −6.3% | −18.0% | 17,673,239 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 2,007 @ $312.33 | $627K | −0.0% of holding | −6.3% | −18.0% | 17,671,232 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 266 @ $317.08 | $84K | −0.0% of holding | −6.3% | −18.0% | 17,571,768 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 58,976 @ $310.38 | $18.3M | −0.3% of holding | −9.6% | −18.4% | 17,723,991 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 11,558 @ $315.64 | $3.6M | −0.1% of holding | −9.6% | −18.4% | 17,693,022 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 10,595 @ $311.55 | $3.3M | −0.1% of holding | −9.6% | −18.4% | 17,713,396 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 8,226 @ $316.15 | $2.6M | −0.0% of holding | −9.6% | −18.4% | 17,684,796 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 3,708 @ $314.68 | $1.2M | −0.0% of holding | −9.6% | −18.4% | 17,704,580 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 3,265 @ $317.10 | $1.0M | −0.0% of holding | −9.6% | −18.4% | 17,681,531 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 3,125 @ $312.31 | $976K | −0.0% of holding | −9.6% | −18.4% | 17,710,271 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 1,983 @ $313.40 | $621K | −0.0% of holding | −9.6% | −18.4% | 17,708,288 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 466 @ $318.13 | $148K | −0.0% of holding | −9.6% | −18.4% | 17,681,065 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 30,170 @ $318.99 | $9.6M | −0.2% of holding | −10.4% | −17.4% | 17,837,433 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 22,179 @ $325.24 | $7.2M | −0.1% of holding | −10.4% | −17.4% | 17,785,440 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 17,879 @ $318.46 | $5.7M | −0.1% of holding | −10.4% | −17.4% | 17,867,603 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 17,111 @ $324.43 | $5.6M | −0.1% of holding | −10.4% | −17.4% | 17,807,619 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 9,939 @ $322.34 | $3.2M | −0.1% of holding | −10.4% | −17.4% | 17,825,655 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Sale | 2,473 @ $326.03 | $806K | −0.0% of holding | −10.4% | −17.4% | 17,782,967 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
124 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Bunch Tara | director | Award / grant | 683 | 683 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | BETHGE LAURA H | officer | Withheld for tax | 267 | 32,519 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | McPherson Amy | director | Withheld for tax | 408 | 10,164 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Wiernicki Christopher J | director | Withheld for tax | 93 | 351 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | MOORE ANN S | director | Withheld for tax | 78 | 28,925 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Thompson Donald | director | Withheld for tax | 78 | 39,483 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Howe Stephen R. Jr. | director | Withheld for tax | 78 | 14,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Brock John | director | Withheld for tax | 78 | 23,957 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | LEAVITT MICHAEL O | director | Withheld for tax | 78 | 8,102 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Montiel Maritza Gomez | director | Withheld for tax | 78 | 12,771 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Yeung Rebecca | director | Withheld for tax | 78 | 5,625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Fain Richard D | director | Award / grant | 831 | 151,122 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | McPherson Amy | director | Award / grant | 831 | 10,995 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | LEAVITT MICHAEL O | director | Award / grant | 831 | 8,933 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Howe Stephen R. Jr. | director | Award / grant | 831 | 15,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Montiel Maritza Gomez | director | Award / grant | 831 | 13,602 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Ofer Eyal | director | Award / grant | 831 | 43,756 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander | director | Award / grant | 831 | 8,520 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Thompson Donald | director | Award / grant | 831 | 40,314 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sorensen Vagn O | director | Award / grant | 831 | 17,238 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Wiernicki Christopher J | director | Award / grant | 831 | 1,182 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Brock John | director | Award / grant | 831 | 24,788 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Wiernicki Christopher J | director | Award / grant | 444 | 444 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Holtz Naftali | officer | Gift | 750 | 79,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Bayley Michael W | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,943 | 138,108 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Liberty Jason T | director | Withheld for tax | 2,818 | 309,732 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Kulovaara Harri U | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,131 | 59,959 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Holtz Naftali | officer | Withheld for tax | 713 | 79,997 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | BETHGE LAURA H | officer | Withheld for tax | 570 | 40,640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Lake Robert Alexander | officer | Withheld for tax | 267 | 38,449 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Pujol Henry L | officer | Withheld for tax | 91 | 14,509 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Liberty Jason T | director | Withheld for tax | 108,481 | 291,985 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Bayley Michael W | officer | Withheld for tax | 65,656 | 135,175 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Holtz Naftali | officer | Withheld for tax | 23,770 | 75,133 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Kulovaara Harri U | officer | Withheld for tax | 16,893 | 58,871 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | BETHGE LAURA H | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,451 | 37,874 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Lake Robert Alexander | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,319 | 36,973 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Pujol Henry L | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,111 | 14,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | BETHGE LAURA H | officer | Award / grant | 3,336 | 41,210 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | BETHGE LAURA H | officer | Award / grant | 31,646 | 50,325 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Dan Newhouse | House | purchase | 2026-01-15 | 2025-12-31 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-08-07 | 2025-07-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-08-07 | 2025-07-01 | $1–15K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | sale | 2025-06-22 | 2025-05-12 | $50–100K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-06-10 | 2025-05-28 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.