RCEL · TickerCove

RCELAvita Medical Inc.Healthcare · Medical - Devicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.45 · now $10.45 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RCEL has typically landed between $7.44 and $14.67 — a range of −28.8% to +40.4% from the issuance price $10.45.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,584 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-05-14 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.45) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$10.45 · 91% of range

$3.27 low$11.2 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−2.2%

typical move · IQR 28.6%

−28.8%worst (p90)+40.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where RCEL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.45 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $10.45 (+0.0%)
typical $10.22 (-2.2%)
middle 50% $8.73–$11.71
90% range $7.44–$14.67

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,584 windows spanning 2012-05-14 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−62.7%	−62.7%	+1.9%
2020-02-19	−60.1%	−63.4%	+0.0%
2020-02-21	−56.6%	−59.2%	+0.0%
3 best
2019-03-08	+269.3%	+0.0%	+269.3%
2019-03-11	+229.1%	+0.0%	+269.3%
2026-08-05	+150.6%	+0.0%	+150.6%

3,584 overlapping windows · 2012-05-14 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

57%

+9.3%

n=14

Feb

43%

+2.0%

n=14

Mar

36%

+1.9%

n=14

Apr

43%

−1.1%

n=14

May

43%

−6.4%

n=14

Jun

40%

+3.3%

n=15

Jul

60%

+2.1%

n=15

Aug

40%

+6.1%

n=15

Sep

47%

+2.1%

n=15

Oct

36%

−5.8%

n=14

Nov

57%

+3.5%

n=14

Dec

36%

−0.5%

n=14

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-09	Woody Joseph Fralin	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $4.20	$21K	+5.4% of holding	−4.1%	not yet — horizon still open	97,761	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-09	Woody Joseph Fralin	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $4.18	$21K	+5.1% of holding	−4.1%	not yet — horizon still open	102,761	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-09	Woody Joseph Fralin	director	Purchase	5,200 @ $4.00	$21K	+5.1% of holding	−4.1%	not yet — horizon still open	107,961	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-03	Woody Joseph Fralin	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $4.10	$20K	+6.0% of holding	+24.9%	not yet — horizon still open	87,761	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-03	Woody Joseph Fralin	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $4.09	$20K	+5.7% of holding	+24.9%	not yet — horizon still open	92,761	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-02	Woody Joseph Fralin	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $4.21	$21K	+33.3% of holding	+22.5%	not yet — horizon still open	20,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-02	Woody Joseph Fralin	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $4.18	$21K	+50.0% of holding	+22.5%	not yet — horizon still open	15,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01	Woody Joseph Fralin	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $4.34	$22K	ownership Δ n/a	+8.1%	not yet — horizon still open	5,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-01	Woody Joseph Fralin	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $4.26	$21K	+100.0% of holding	+8.1%	not yet — horizon still open	10,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-20	O'Toole David D	officer	Purchase	2,000 @ $4.26	$9K	+1.4% of holding	−7.4%	not yet — horizon still open	145,927	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-19	O'Toole David D	officer	Purchase	2,000 @ $4.24	$8K	+1.4% of holding	−6.6%	not yet — horizon still open	143,927	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-11	O'Toole David D	officer	Purchase	1,800 @ $4.78	$9K	+1.3% of holding	+3.6%	+92.2%	141,927	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-19	O'Toole David D	officer	Purchase	3,000 @ $4.15	$12K	+2.2% of holding	−4.8%	+117.2%	140,127	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-28	McNamara Robert	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $4.50	$45K	+13.0% of holding	+20.0%	+13.9%	86,771	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-26	O'Toole David D	officer	Purchase	2,000 @ $4.52	$9K	+6.7% of holding	+14.6%	+4.6%	31,657	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-19	McNamara Robert	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $5.00	$50K	+15.0% of holding	+10.2%	−17.7%	76,771	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-12	O'Toole David D	officer	Purchase	2,000 @ $4.81	$10K	+7.2% of holding	−23.0%	−38.7%	29,657	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-06	McNamara Robert	director	Purchase	11,000 @ $8.30	$91K	+24.0% of holding	+2.2%	−62.2%	56,749	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-20	McNamara Robert	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $10.09	$101K	+28.0% of holding	−2.6%	−57.0%	45,749	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-20	O'Toole David D	officer	Purchase	1,000 @ $9.90	$10K	+4.0% of holding	−2.6%	−57.0%	25,734	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-19	O'Toole David D	officer	Purchase	1,000 @ $10.25	$10K	+4.2% of holding	−1.5%	−58.8%	24,734	Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-09	Crowe Suzanne	director	Purchase	486 @ $13.15	$6K	+1.3% of holding	−29.6%	−58.1%	36,912	Form 4 · filed 51 days after the trade
2024-12-05	O'Toole David D	officer	Purchase	500 @ $12.40	$6K	+2.2% of holding	+15.7%	−51.9%	23,734	Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-05	O'Toole David D	officer	Purchase	475 @ $12.53	$6K	+2.1% of holding	+15.7%	−51.9%	23,234	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

56 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-12	O'Toole David D	officer	Award / grant	2,000	152,927	Form 4
2026-05-29	O'Toole David D	officer	Award / grant	5,000	150,927	Form 4
2026-05-29	Vance Cary Guy	director	Award / grant	5,000	40,771	Form 4
2026-02-18	KELSEY NICOLE	officer	Award / grant	145,060	145,060	Form 4
2026-02-18	O'Toole David D	officer	Award / grant	155,510	155,510	Form 4
2026-02-18	O'Toole David D	officer	Award / grant	105,470	137,127	Form 4
2026-02-18	O'Toole David D	officer	Award / grant	105,470	137,127	Form 4
2026-02-18	KELSEY NICOLE	officer	Award / grant	98,390	98,390	Form 4
2026-02-18	KELSEY NICOLE	officer	Award / grant	98,390	98,390	Form 4
2026-01-20	Crowe Suzanne	director	Award / grant	16,133	16,133	Form 4
2026-01-20	Woody Joseph Fralin	director	Award / grant	16,133	16,133	Form 4
2026-01-20	REED JAN STERN	director	Award / grant	16,133	16,133	Form 4
2026-01-20	Tarnoff Michael E	director	Award / grant	16,133	16,133	Form 4
2026-01-20	COOK JEREMY CURNOCK	director	Award / grant	16,133	16,133	Form 4
2026-01-20	McNamara Robert	director	Award / grant	16,133	16,133	Form 4
2026-01-20	Woody Joseph Fralin	director	Award / grant	22,214	82,761	Form 4
2026-01-20	REED JAN STERN	director	Award / grant	22,214	73,225	Form 4
2026-01-20	COOK JEREMY CURNOCK	director	Award / grant	22,214	62,050	Form 4
2026-01-20	McNamara Robert	director	Award / grant	22,214	108,985	Form 4
2026-01-20	Tarnoff Michael E	director	Award / grant	22,214	48,464	Form 4
2026-01-20	Woody Joseph Fralin	director	Award / grant	22,214	82,761	Form 4
2026-01-20	Crowe Suzanne	director	Award / grant	22,214	69,148	Form 4
2026-01-20	COOK JEREMY CURNOCK	director	Award / grant	22,214	62,050	Form 4
2026-01-20	Crowe Suzanne	director	Award / grant	22,214	69,148	Form 4
2026-01-20	McNamara Robert	director	Award / grant	22,214	108,985	Form 4
2026-01-20	REED JAN STERN	director	Award / grant	22,214	73,225	Form 4
2026-01-20	Tarnoff Michael E	director	Award / grant	22,214	48,464	Form 4
2026-01-05	Woody Joseph Fralin	director	Award / grant	29,446	29,446	Form 4
2026-01-05	Woody Joseph Fralin	director	Award / grant	40,547	60,547	Form 4
2026-01-05	Woody Joseph Fralin	director	Award / grant	40,547	60,547	Form 4
2025-08-06	Tarnoff Michael E	director	Award / grant	19,063	19,063	Form 4
2025-08-06	Tarnoff Michael E	director	Award / grant	26,250	26,250	Form 4
2025-08-06	Tarnoff Michael E	director	Award / grant	26,250	26,250	Form 4
2025-05-30	O'Toole David D	officer	Award / grant	1,923	27,657	Form 4
2025-01-21	McNamara Robert	director	Award / grant	4,295	4,295	Form 4
2025-01-21	Crowe Suzanne	director	Award / grant	4,295	4,295	Form 4
2025-01-21	KELSEY NICOLE	officer	Award / grant	65,000	65,000	Form 4
2025-01-21	Panaccio Lou	director	Award / grant	4,295	4,295	Form 4
2025-01-21	CORBETT JAMES	director	Award / grant	520,000	520,000	Form 4
2025-01-21	Vance Cary Guy	director	Award / grant	4,295	4,295	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i