Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.58 · now $1.58 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RC has typically landed between $1.27 and $1.81 — a range of −19.9% to +14.7% from the issuance price $1.58.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,399 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-02-08 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.58) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.58 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.58 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.55 (-2.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.44–$1.65
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.27–$1.81
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-24 | −75.1% | −75.1% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −71.2% | −71.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-03-04 | −70.7% | −73.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-05-13 | +74.7% | +0.0% | +110.1% |
| 2020-05-07 | +66.0% | −21.0% | +66.0% |
| 2020-05-15 | +65.7% | +0.0% | +87.9% |
3,399 overlapping windows · 2013-02-08 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Ahlborn Andrew | officer | Purchase | 2,799 @ $1.82 | $5K | +0.2% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,153,110 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Ahlborn Andrew | officer | Sale | 2,798 @ $1.81 | $5K | −0.2% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,150,311 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Ahlborn Andrew | officer | Sale | 1 @ $1.82 | $1 | −0.0% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,153,109 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | NATHAN GILBERT E | director | Purchase | 30,000 @ $1.95 | $58K | +16.1% of holding | −17.8% | −23.0% | 216,358 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | NATHAN GILBERT E | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $2.02 | $20K | +8.5% of holding | −17.7% | −27.4% | 128,106 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Ahlborn Andrew | officer | Purchase | 454 @ $2.91 | $1K | +0.0% of holding | −13.7% | −41.8% | 1,150,061 | Form 4 · filed 215 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Ahlborn Andrew | officer | Purchase | 111 @ $3.00 | $332 | +0.0% of holding | −13.7% | −41.8% | 1,150,172 | Form 4 · filed 215 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-30 | Ahlborn Andrew | officer | Purchase | 304 @ $4.10 | $1K | +0.0% of holding | −3.7% | −56.7% | 1,149,534 | Form 4 · filed 307 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-30 | Ahlborn Andrew | officer | Purchase | 73 @ $4.43 | $323 | +0.0% of holding | −3.7% | −56.7% | 1,149,607 | Form 4 · filed 307 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-29 | Ahlborn Andrew | officer | Purchase | 288 @ $4.09 | $1K | +0.0% of holding | −6.0% | −48.9% | 1,149,160 | Form 4 · filed 399 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-29 | Ahlborn Andrew | officer | Purchase | 70 @ $4.49 | $315 | +0.0% of holding | −6.0% | −48.9% | 1,149,230 | Form 4 · filed 399 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Ahlborn Andrew | officer | Purchase | 10,000 @ $5.04 | $50K | +3.3% of holding | −3.3% | −30.0% | 310,808 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Taylor Gary | officer | Purchase | 10,000 @ $5.23 | $52K | +5.0% of holding | +1.6% | −28.0% | 211,097 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | NATHAN GILBERT E | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $5.12 | $26K | +4.4% of holding | +1.6% | −28.0% | 118,106 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Zausmer Adam | officer | Purchase | 10,000 @ $5.42 | $54K | +3.4% of holding | −0.1% | −27.2% | 301,105 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | Capasse Thomas E | director | Purchase | 90,000 @ $4.99 | $449K | +28.1% of holding | +8.0% | −23.2% | 409,925 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-05 | Capasse Thomas E | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $4.80 | $48K | +3.2% of holding | +8.3% | −21.4% | 319,925 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Ross Jack J. | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $4.85 | $24K | +3.2% of holding | +8.3% | −21.4% | 160,264 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
53 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | Ahlborn Andrew | officer | Code L | 59 | 1,150,295 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Ahlborn Andrew | officer | Code L | 15 | 1,150,311 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Ahlborn Andrew | officer | Withheld for tax | 27,950 | 1,148,872 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Scali Dominick | officer | Withheld for tax | 26,313 | 698,499 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Marshall Meredith | director | Award / grant | 58,252 | 98,346 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Scali Dominick | officer | Award / grant | 194,175 | 724,812 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Sinai Todd M. | director | Award / grant | 58,252 | 142,520 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Ahlborn Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 291,262 | 1,202,070 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Mielle Dominique | director | Award / grant | 58,252 | 124,790 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | NATHAN GILBERT E | director | Award / grant | 58,252 | 186,358 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | REESE J MITCHELL | director | Award / grant | 58,252 | 177,168 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Scali Dominick | officer | Award / grant | 1,050,000 | 1,050,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Ahlborn Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 600,000 | 910,808 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Ahlborn Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 1,800,000 | 1,800,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Scali Dominick | officer | Award / grant | 350,000 | 530,637 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-29 | Ahlborn Andrew | officer | Code L | 52 | 1,150,224 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-29 | Ahlborn Andrew | officer | Code L | 13 | 1,150,236 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-24 | Ahlborn Andrew | officer | Withheld for tax | 25,248 | 1,176,822 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Ahlborn Andrew | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,400 | 300,808 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Zausmer Adam | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,162 | 291,105 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Taylor Gary | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,147 | 201,097 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Ahlborn Andrew | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,955 | 290,314 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Taylor Gary | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,955 | 192,003 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Zausmer Adam | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,778 | 280,373 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Mielle Dominique | director | Award / grant | 17,857 | 66,538 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | NATHAN GILBERT E | director | Award / grant | 17,857 | 113,106 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Zausmer Adam | officer | Award / grant | 89,286 | 287,151 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | REESE J MITCHELL | director | Award / grant | 17,857 | 118,916 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Taylor Gary | officer | Award / grant | 59,524 | 198,958 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Marshall Meredith | director | Award / grant | 17,857 | 40,094 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Taylor Gary | officer | Option exercise | 17,241 | 209,244 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Ahlborn Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 19,894 | — | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Taylor Gary | officer | Option exercise | 17,241 | — | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Sinai Todd M. | director | Award / grant | 17,857 | 84,268 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Ahlborn Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 19,894 | 310,208 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Zausmer Adam | officer | Option exercise | 19,894 | 300,267 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Ahlborn Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 89,286 | 297,269 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Zausmer Adam | officer | Option exercise | 19,894 | — | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Ahlborn Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 19,894 | — | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Taylor Gary | officer | Option exercise | 17,241 | — | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.