Issued 2026-09-16 at $104.98 · now $104.98 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RBRK has typically landed between $84.14 and $142.75 — a range of −19.9% to +36.0% from the issuance price $104.98.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
579 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-04-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($104.98) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RBRK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $104.98 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $104.98 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $106.78 (+1.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $94.61–$118.95
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $84.14–$142.75
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 579 windows spanning 2024-04-25 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-01-06 | −35.6% | −35.6% | +2.3% |
| 2026-01-07 | −33.6% | −37.1% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-06 | −31.2% | −31.2% | +4.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-11-14 | +69.7% | −2.8% | +69.7% |
| 2024-11-15 | +68.8% | +0.0% | +74.6% |
| 2024-11-12 | +65.6% | −3.5% | +65.6% |
579 overlapping windows · 2024-04-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−7.4%
n=2
Feb
0%
−9.1%
n=2
Mar
0%
−6.1%
n=2
Apr
100%
+12.1%
n=2
May
67%
+26.1%
n=3
Jun
67%
−1.1%
n=3
Jul
67%
+5.8%
n=3
Aug
33%
+5.4%
n=3
Sep
33%
−0.9%
n=3
Oct
50%
+9.9%
n=2
Nov
50%
+7.6%
n=2
Dec
100%
+19.5%
n=2
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 4,844 @ $89.73 | $435K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 300,289 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-10 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 4,675 @ $90.88 | $425K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 295,614 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-10 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 2,321 @ $91.67 | $213K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 293,293 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-10 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 611 @ $89.12 | $54K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 305,133 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-10 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 369 @ $87.55 | $32K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 305,744 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-09 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 5,297 @ $90.41 | $479K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 297,573 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 3,237 @ $91.16 | $295K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 294,336 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 3,243 @ $89.33 | $290K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 302,870 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 1,013 @ $92.08 | $93K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 293,323 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 30 @ $92.87 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 293,293 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 7,836 @ $91.47 | $717K | −2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 295,510 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 2,767 @ $90.43 | $250K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 303,346 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 2,217 @ $91.95 | $204K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 293,293 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Wassenaar Yvonne | director | Sale | 721 @ $89.52 | $65K | −16.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,709 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-01 | THOMPSON JOHN WENDELL | director | Sale | 4,700 @ $89.02 | $418K | −31.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,062 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | THOMPSON JOHN WENDELL | director | Sale | 4,600 @ $88.34 | $406K | −23.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,762 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | THOMPSON JOHN WENDELL | director | Sale | 1,600 @ $88.58 | $142K | −16.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,400 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | THOMPSON JOHN WENDELL | director | Sale | 900 @ $91.08 | $82K | −9.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,562 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | THOMPSON JOHN WENDELL | director | Sale | 600 @ $90.24 | $54K | −6.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,462 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | THOMPSON JOHN WENDELL | director | Sale | 600 @ $89.18 | $54K | −7.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,800 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | THOMPSON JOHN WENDELL | director | Sale | 200 @ $92.37 | $18K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,362 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | THOMPSON JOHN WENDELL | director | Sale | 200 @ $91.66 | $18K | −2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | THOMPSON JOHN WENDELL | director | Sale | 100 @ $90.30 | $9K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,700 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Choudary Kiran Kumar | officer | Sale | 5,300 @ $98.65 | $523K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 978,373 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Choudary Kiran Kumar | officer | Sale | 4,400 @ $97.81 | $430K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 983,673 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Choudary Kiran Kumar | officer | Sale | 300 @ $99.93 | $30K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 978,073 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 8,177 @ $84.10 | $688K | −2.7% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 293,814 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-05 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 2,780 @ $83.17 | $231K | −0.9% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 301,991 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-05 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 1,342 @ $82.08 | $110K | −0.4% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 304,771 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-05 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 521 @ $84.61 | $44K | −0.2% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 293,293 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-04 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 4,557 @ $80.94 | $369K | −1.5% of holding | +8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 293,293 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 3,767 @ $79.81 | $301K | −1.2% of holding | +8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 297,850 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 2,981 @ $79.11 | $236K | −1.0% of holding | +8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 301,617 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 1,303 @ $77.99 | $102K | −0.4% of holding | +8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 304,598 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 212 @ $76.77 | $16K | −0.1% of holding | +8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 305,901 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 7,642 @ $73.72 | $563K | −2.5% of holding | +17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 298,471 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | THOMPSON JOHN WENDELL | director | Sale | 5,740 @ $73.73 | $423K | −29.6% of holding | +17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,622 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | THOMPSON JOHN WENDELL | director | Sale | 5,260 @ $74.51 | $392K | −38.6% of holding | +17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,362 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 5,178 @ $74.52 | $386K | −1.7% of holding | +17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 293,293 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | THOMPSON JOHN WENDELL | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $73.79 | $111K | −12.0% of holding | +17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | THOMPSON JOHN WENDELL | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $74.59 | $75K | −9.1% of holding | +17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Wassenaar Yvonne | director | Sale | 721 @ $75.00 | $54K | −15.5% of holding | +17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,917 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Choudary Kiran Kumar | officer | Sale | 15,600 @ $80.15 | $1.3M | −1.5% of holding | +27.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 996,473 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Choudary Kiran Kumar | officer | Sale | 4,800 @ $80.94 | $389K | −0.5% of holding | +27.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 991,673 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Choudary Kiran Kumar | officer | Sale | 2,100 @ $86.58 | $182K | −0.2% of holding | +27.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 986,173 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Choudary Kiran Kumar | officer | Sale | 1,800 @ $83.37 | $150K | −0.2% of holding | +27.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 988,673 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Choudary Kiran Kumar | officer | Sale | 1,200 @ $82.27 | $99K | −0.1% of holding | +27.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 990,473 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Choudary Kiran Kumar | officer | Sale | 1,100 @ $88.64 | $98K | −0.1% of holding | +27.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 984,073 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Choudary Kiran Kumar | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $87.35 | $87K | −0.1% of holding | +27.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 985,173 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Choudary Kiran Kumar | officer | Sale | 400 @ $85.15 | $34K | −0.0% of holding | +27.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 988,273 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Mhatre Ravi | director | Sale | 3,979 @ $83.10 | $331K | −100.0% of holding | +12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 6,728 @ $84.02 | $565K | −2.1% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 309,703 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-08 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 4,233 @ $84.87 | $359K | −1.4% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 305,470 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-08 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 1,446 @ $85.67 | $124K | −0.5% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 304,024 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-08 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 413 @ $86.81 | $36K | −0.1% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 303,611 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-07 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 4,957 @ $87.32 | $433K | −1.6% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 308,904 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 3,978 @ $88.33 | $351K | −1.3% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 304,926 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 1,821 @ $86.45 | $157K | −0.6% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 313,861 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 1,315 @ $89.13 | $117K | −0.4% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 303,611 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Sale | 749 @ $85.44 | $64K | −0.2% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 315,682 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
165 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Conversion | 12,820 | 306,113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Conversion | 12,820 | 10,028,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Conversion | 12,820 | 306,113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Conversion | 12,820 | 10,041,070 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Conversion | 12,820 | 10,053,890 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Conversion | 12,820 | 306,113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Wassenaar Yvonne | director | Conversion | 513 | 4,430 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Wassenaar Yvonne | director | Conversion | 513 | 32,603 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | THOMPSON JOHN WENDELL | director | Conversion | 11,000 | 19,362 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | THOMPSON JOHN WENDELL | director | Option exercise | 11,000 | 66,946 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | THOMPSON JOHN WENDELL | director | Option exercise | 11,000 | 61,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | THOMPSON JOHN WENDELL | director | Conversion | 11,000 | 50,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | THOMPSON JOHN WENDELL | director | Option exercise | 11,000 | 61,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | THOMPSON JOHN WENDELL | director | Conversion | 11,000 | 50,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | THOMPSON JOHN WENDELL | director | Conversion | 11,000 | 50,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | THOMPSON JOHN WENDELL | director | Conversion | 11,000 | 50,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | THOMPSON JOHN WENDELL | director | Option exercise | 11,000 | 61,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | THOMPSON JOHN WENDELL | director | Option exercise | 11,000 | 61,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Russak-Aminoach Rakefet | director | Award / grant | 10,304 | 10,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Choudary Kiran Kumar | officer | Conversion | 4,000 | 988,073 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Choudary Kiran Kumar | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 15,450 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Choudary Kiran Kumar | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 4,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Choudary Kiran Kumar | officer | Conversion | 4,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Conversion | 12,820 | 306,113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Conversion | 12,820 | 10,066,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Conversion | 12,820 | 10,079,530 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Conversion | 12,820 | 306,113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | THOMPSON JOHN WENDELL | director | Option exercise | 11,000 | 77,946 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | THOMPSON JOHN WENDELL | director | Conversion | 11,000 | 19,362 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Conversion | 2,502 | 306,113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Nithrakashyap Arvind | director | Conversion | 2,502 | 10,092,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | THOMPSON JOHN WENDELL | director | Conversion | 11,000 | 50,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | THOMPSON JOHN WENDELL | director | Option exercise | 11,000 | 61,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | THOMPSON JOHN WENDELL | director | Option exercise | 11,000 | 61,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | THOMPSON JOHN WENDELL | director | Conversion | 11,000 | 50,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Choudary Kiran Kumar | officer | Option exercise | 12,000 | 12,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Choudary Kiran Kumar | officer | Conversion | 12,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Choudary Kiran Kumar | officer | Option exercise | 12,000 | 19,450 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Choudary Kiran Kumar | officer | Conversion | 12,000 | 1,012,073 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Mhatre Ravi | director | Other acquisition | 11,874 | 125,351 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.