Issued 2026-09-16 at $47.43 · now $47.43 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RBLX has typically landed between $33.84 and $61.23 — a range of −28.7% to +29.1% from the issuance price $47.43.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,366 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-03-10 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($47.43) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RBLX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $47.43 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $47.43 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $47.78 (+0.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $41.73–$53.84
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $33.84–$61.23
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,366 windows spanning 2021-03-10 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-02-10 | −47.5% | −47.5% | +4.8% |
| 2022-04-08 | −46.2% | −46.2% | +4.3% |
| 2022-04-11 | −45.5% | −47.3% | +2.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-11-08 | +62.1% | +0.0% | +75.0% |
| 2021-10-21 | +61.9% | −7.4% | +61.9% |
| 2022-06-16 | +61.4% | +0.0% | +67.1% |
1,366 overlapping windows · 2021-03-10 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
−3.3%
n=5
Feb
40%
−5.3%
n=5
Mar
20%
−3.6%
n=5
Apr
33%
−5.6%
n=6
May
50%
+8.4%
n=6
Jun
67%
+8.2%
n=6
Jul
50%
+3.6%
n=6
Aug
50%
−3.0%
n=6
Sep
67%
+2.1%
n=6
Oct
80%
+9.0%
n=5
Nov
40%
+5.0%
n=5
Dec
40%
−2.3%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Reinstra Mark | officer | Sale | 3,753 @ $45.03 | $169K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 392,391 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Reinstra Mark | officer | Sale | 1,920 @ $44.30 | $85K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 396,144 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Reinstra Mark | officer | Sale | 100 @ $45.73 | $5K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 392,291 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Baszucki Gregory | director | Sale | 5,181 @ $40.33 | $209K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,264,321 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Baszucki Gregory | director | Sale | 5,180 @ $40.33 | $209K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,948,538 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Baszucki Gregory | director | Sale | 3,153 @ $40.69 | $128K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,945,385 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Baszucki Gregory | director | Sale | 3,152 @ $40.69 | $128K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,261,169 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Wong Andrea L | director | Sale | 562 @ $40.89 | $23K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 45,265 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Rawlings Amy Marie | officer | Sale | 237 @ $38.89 | $9K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 68,508 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | BUCKLEY SEAN JACK | officer | Sale | 4,321 @ $38.68 | $167K | −4.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 87,213 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Baszucki David | director | Sale | 38,208 @ $37.78 | $1.4M | −4.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 814,006 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Baszucki David | director | Sale | 14,360 @ $38.44 | $552K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 799,646 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Reinstra Mark | officer | Sale | 13,020 @ $37.78 | $492K | −3.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 402,978 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | CHOPRA NAVEEN K. | director | Sale | 12,807 @ $37.78 | $484K | −3.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 367,951 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Kaufman Matthew D | officer | Sale | 10,994 @ $37.78 | $415K | −3.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 338,970 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Reinstra Mark | officer | Sale | 4,914 @ $38.45 | $189K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 398,064 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | CHOPRA NAVEEN K. | director | Sale | 4,702 @ $38.45 | $181K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 363,249 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | BUCKLEY SEAN JACK | officer | Sale | 4,280 @ $37.81 | $162K | −4.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 92,861 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Kaufman Matthew D | officer | Sale | 3,910 @ $38.47 | $150K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 335,060 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Rawlings Amy Marie | officer | Sale | 3,885 @ $37.81 | $147K | −5.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 69,921 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | BUCKLEY SEAN JACK | officer | Sale | 1,327 @ $38.47 | $51K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 91,534 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Rawlings Amy Marie | officer | Sale | 1,176 @ $38.48 | $45K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 68,745 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Reinstra Mark | officer | Sale | 6,250 @ $40.00 | $250K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 415,998 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Baszucki Gregory | director | Sale | 7,333 @ $37.39 | $274K | −0.1% of holding | +12.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,954,718 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Baszucki Gregory | director | Sale | 7,332 @ $37.39 | $274K | −0.6% of holding | +12.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,270,503 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Baszucki Gregory | director | Sale | 1,001 @ $38.02 | $38K | −0.1% of holding | +12.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,269,502 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Baszucki Gregory | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $38.02 | $38K | −0.0% of holding | +12.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,953,718 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Reinstra Mark | officer | Sale | 3,212 @ $57.24 | $184K | −0.8% of holding | −37.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 423,348 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Reinstra Mark | officer | Sale | 1,100 @ $57.94 | $64K | −0.3% of holding | −37.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 422,248 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Reinstra Mark | officer | Sale | 200 @ $55.77 | $11K | −0.0% of holding | −37.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 426,560 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Baszucki Gregory | director | Sale | 5,433 @ $58.03 | $315K | −0.4% of holding | −38.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,277,835 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Baszucki Gregory | director | Sale | 5,433 @ $58.03 | $315K | −0.1% of holding | −38.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,962,051 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Baszucki Gregory | director | Sale | 2,250 @ $57.36 | $129K | −0.2% of holding | −38.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,283,268 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Baszucki Gregory | director | Sale | 2,250 @ $57.36 | $129K | −0.0% of holding | −38.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,967,484 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Baszucki Gregory | director | Sale | 650 @ $55.97 | $36K | −0.0% of holding | −38.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,969,734 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Baszucki Gregory | director | Sale | 650 @ $55.97 | $36K | −0.1% of holding | −38.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,285,518 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Reinstra Mark | officer | Sale | 5,978 @ $41.71 | $249K | −1.4% of holding | +31.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 426,760 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-01 | Baszucki Gregory | director | Sale | 5,200 @ $46.32 | $241K | −0.4% of holding | +24.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,289,301 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Baszucki Gregory | director | Sale | 5,200 @ $46.32 | $241K | −0.1% of holding | +24.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,973,517 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Baszucki Gregory | director | Sale | 3,133 @ $47.14 | $148K | −0.2% of holding | +24.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,286,168 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Baszucki Gregory | director | Sale | 3,133 @ $47.14 | $148K | −0.0% of holding | +24.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,970,384 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Rawlings Amy Marie | officer | Sale | 274 @ $48.00 | $13K | −0.8% of holding | +2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,964 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | BUCKLEY SEAN JACK | officer | Sale | 4,744 @ $46.36 | $220K | −4.7% of holding | +1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 97,141 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Reinstra Mark | officer | Sale | 4,899 @ $46.46 | $228K | −1.1% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 432,738 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Reinstra Mark | officer | Sale | 561 @ $45.93 | $26K | −0.1% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 437,637 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Baszucki David | director | Sale | 45,042 @ $45.36 | $2.0M | −5.0% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 853,114 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Reinstra Mark | officer | Sale | 15,372 @ $45.38 | $698K | −3.4% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 438,198 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | CHOPRA NAVEEN K. | director | Sale | 14,990 @ $45.38 | $680K | −3.8% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 380,758 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Kaufman Matthew D | officer | Sale | 12,756 @ $45.36 | $579K | −3.5% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 350,154 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Baszucki David | director | Sale | 4,686 @ $44.40 | $208K | −0.5% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 898,156 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | BUCKLEY SEAN JACK | officer | Sale | 4,350 @ $45.44 | $198K | −4.1% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 101,885 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Rawlings Amy Marie | officer | Sale | 1,984 @ $45.46 | $90K | −5.3% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,238 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Reinstra Mark | officer | Sale | 1,903 @ $44.48 | $85K | −0.4% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 453,570 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | CHOPRA NAVEEN K. | director | Sale | 1,873 @ $44.47 | $83K | −0.5% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 395,748 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Kaufman Matthew D | officer | Sale | 1,410 @ $44.42 | $63K | −0.4% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 362,910 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | BUCKLEY SEAN JACK | officer | Sale | 1,316 @ $44.71 | $59K | −1.2% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,235 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Baszucki David | director | Sale | 900 @ $45.89 | $41K | −0.1% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 852,214 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Rawlings Amy Marie | officer | Sale | 911 @ $44.76 | $41K | −2.4% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 37,222 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Kaufman Matthew D | officer | Sale | 190 @ $45.89 | $9K | −0.1% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 349,964 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Baszucki Gregory | director | Sale | 3,552 @ $44.09 | $157K | −0.3% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,299,282 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
73 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Baszucki Gregory | director | Other acquisition | 1,296 | 3,889 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | KILAR JASON | director | Other acquisition | 1,296 | 1,296 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Mastantuono Gina | director | Other acquisition | 1,296 | 1,296 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Mastantuono Gina | director | Other acquisition | 1,296 | 18,261 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Baszucki Gregory | director | Other acquisition | 1,296 | 1,296 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | KILAR JASON | director | Other acquisition | 1,296 | 18,927 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Lee Anthony P | director | Gift | 50,000 | 306,768 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Lee Anthony P | director | Gift | 100,000 | 6,157,311 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Rawlings Amy Marie | officer | Award / grant | 6,567 | 73,806 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Rawlings Amy Marie | officer | Award / grant | 32,275 | 67,239 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Lee Anthony P | director | Award / grant | 5,185 | 5,185 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Mastantuono Gina | director | Award / grant | 5,185 | 19,557 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Wong Andrea L | director | Award / grant | 5,185 | 6,310 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | KILAR JASON | director | Award / grant | 5,185 | 20,223 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Baszucki Gregory | director | Award / grant | 5,185 | 5,185 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Durkin Dennis M | director | Award / grant | 5,185 | 8,709 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Carvalho Christopher | director | Award / grant | 5,185 | 1,112,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | KILAR JASON | director | Other acquisition | 1,126 | 15,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Mastantuono Gina | director | Other acquisition | 1,126 | 4,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Mastantuono Gina | director | Other acquisition | 1,126 | 14,372 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | KILAR JASON | director | Other acquisition | 1,126 | 4,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Baszucki Gregory | director | Other acquisition | 1,126 | 4,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Baszucki Gregory | director | Other acquisition | 1,126 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Rawlings Amy Marie | officer | Award / grant | 5,228 | 38,133 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Baszucki David | director | Conversion | 2,687,511 | 3,493,765 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Baszucki David | director | Conversion | 2,687,511 | 19,194,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Durkin Dennis M | director | Award / grant | 796 | 3,524 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Durkin Dennis M | director | Award / grant | 2,728 | 2,728 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | CHOPRA NAVEEN K. | director | Award / grant | 73,299 | 397,621 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | CHOPRA NAVEEN K. | director | Award / grant | 135,320 | 135,320 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Baszucki David | director | Award / grant | 613,822 | 613,822 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Kaufman Matthew D | officer | Award / grant | 85,609 | 377,645 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Kaufman Matthew D | officer | Award / grant | 92,194 | 92,194 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Reinstra Mark | officer | Award / grant | 104,236 | 104,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Baszucki David | director | Award / grant | 102,303 | 902,842 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Reinstra Mark | officer | Award / grant | 96,790 | 474,126 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Baszucki Gregory | director | Other acquisition | 1,125 | 3,375 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Baszucki Gregory | director | Other acquisition | 1,125 | 10,346 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | KILAR JASON | director | Other acquisition | 1,125 | 3,375 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | KILAR JASON | director | Other acquisition | 1,125 | 16,164 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.