Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.87 · now $12.87 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RBKB has typically landed between $11.79 and $14.49 — a range of −8.4% to +12.6% from the issuance price $12.87.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,895 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-01-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.87) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RBKB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.87 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $12.87 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.9 (+0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.45–$13.36
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.79–$14.49
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-25 | −44.3% | −44.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −42.5% | −42.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-24 | −40.9% | −40.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-02-02 | +37.8% | −0.2% | +37.8% |
| 2026-01-30 | +36.6% | +0.0% | +37.5% |
| 2023-12-12 | +35.9% | −1.1% | +35.9% |
1,895 overlapping windows · 2019-01-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Vitale Michael | officer | Purchase | 4,834 @ $12.35 | $60K | +27.5% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,414 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-22 | Patzwahl Nancy Koskey | director | Purchase | 25,000 @ $11.94 | $299K | +1101.3% of holding | +3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,270 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Loughlin Suzanne | director | Purchase | 12,000 @ $11.93 | $143K | +34.5% of holding | +3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,828 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Smith Matthew James | director | Purchase | 10,125 @ $12.00 | $122K | +38.8% of holding | +3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,251 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Vitale Michael | officer | Purchase | 5,000 @ $11.94 | $60K | +39.7% of holding | +3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,580 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Smith Matthew James | director | Purchase | 2,300 @ $11.99 | $28K | +9.7% of holding | +3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,126 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Loughlin Suzanne | director | Purchase | 500 @ $11.92 | $6K | +1.5% of holding | +3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,828 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Bronzi Philip J | officer | Sale | 4,162 @ $15.91 | $66K | −100.0% of holding | +9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Bronzi Philip J | officer | Sale | 3,446 @ $11.05 | $38K | −68.3% of holding | +6.0% | +37.3% | 1,600 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Bronzi Philip J | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $11.15 | $17K | −93.8% of holding | +6.0% | +37.3% | 100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Bronzi Philip J | officer | Sale | 100 @ $11.16 | $1K | −100.0% of holding | +6.0% | +37.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Nihill Kevin M | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $9.67 | $10K | +6.9% of holding | +20.6% | +54.5% | 15,532 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | McCardle James T. III | officer | Sale | 4,250 @ $13.14 | $56K | −54.3% of holding | −18.6% | +12.8% | 3,580 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | McCardle James T. III | officer | Sale | 685 @ $12.74 | $9K | −8.0% of holding | −1.1% | +7.9% | 7,830 | Form 4 · filed 22 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-13 | Nihill Kevin M | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $10.00 | $10K | +6.7% of holding | +11.3% | +22.1% | 16,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-06 | Dwyer Francis X. | officer | Sale | 14,779 @ $9.78 | $145K | −59.5% of holding | +1.4% | +24.4% | 10,079 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
35 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Chestney Christopher W. | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 40,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Irwin William C. | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 50,937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | LaFrance Shannon Martin | director | Award / grant | 2,700 | 35,341 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | McCardle James T. III | officer | Award / grant | 2,500 | 16,279 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Lekanides Phillip | officer | Award / grant | 1,368 | 6,626 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Bloom Jamie J. | officer | Award / grant | 1,000 | 2,970 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Lekanides Phillip | officer | Award / grant | 500 | 8,487 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Garcia Freddimir | director | Award / grant | 500 | 7,206 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Nihill Kevin M | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,468 | 23,696 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Garcia Freddimir | director | Award / grant | 1,624 | 4,798 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Beeler Donald E. Jr. | director | Award / grant | 1,624 | 3,211 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Bloom Jamie J. | officer | Award / grant | 10,487 | 10,522 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Chestney Christopher W. | director | Award / grant | 1,624 | 22,135 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Howell Steven E | director | Award / grant | 1,624 | 6,624 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Irwin William C. | director | Award / grant | 1,624 | 29,287 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | LaFrance Shannon Martin | director | Award / grant | 1,624 | 23,352 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Lekanides Phillip | officer | Award / grant | 3,410 | 5,715 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Loughlin Suzanne | director | Award / grant | 1,624 | 24,559 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | McCardle James T. III | officer | Award / grant | 8,182 | 11,762 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | McGinnis Sharon | director | Award / grant | 1,624 | 1,624 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Nihill Kevin M | officer | Award / grant | 9,632 | 25,164 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Patzwahl Nancy Koskey | director | Award / grant | 1,624 | 1,624 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Smith Matthew James | director | Award / grant | 17,046 | 17,046 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Lekanides Phillip | officer | Option exercise | 500 | 2,305 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Lekanides Phillip | officer | Option exercise | 500 | 1,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Bronzi Philip J | officer | Option exercise | 7,000 | 7,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Bronzi Philip J | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,838 | 4,162 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Bronzi Philip J | officer | Option exercise | 7,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Vitale Michael | officer | Award / grant | 9,000 | 9,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-09 | Quinn Michael J. | director | Withheld for tax | 55,646 | 80,073 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-09 | Quinn Michael J. | director | Option exercise | 95,100 | 135,719 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-09 | Quinn Michael J. | director | Option exercise | 95,100 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-09 | Nihill Kevin M | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,468 | 14,532 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-06 | Dwyer Francis X. | officer | Option exercise | 22,000 | 24,858 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-06 | Dwyer Francis X. | officer | Option exercise | 22,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.