RBCAARepublic Bancorp, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $94.09 · now $94.09 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RBCAA has typically landed between $85.74 and $107.36 — a range of −8.9% to +14.1% from the issuance price $94.09.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($94.09) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where RBCAA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $94.09 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$85.74worst · -8.9%$107.36best · +14.1%
  • now $94.09 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $94.4 (+0.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $88.94–$99.85
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $85.74–$107.36
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−37.2%−37.2%+0.0%
2009-01-02−33.2%−33.2%+0.0%
2020-02-20−32.1%−32.1%+0.0%
3 best
2008-04-11+42.7%+0.0%+42.7%
2008-04-14+40.2%+0.0%+41.3%
2008-07-14+40.2%+0.0%+42.1%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
45%
−3.9%
n=20
Feb
40%
−1.2%
n=20
Mar
65%
+2.5%
n=20
Apr
65%
+4.4%
n=20
May
65%
+1.7%
n=20
Jun
65%
+1.7%
n=20
Jul
60%
+4.2%
n=20
Aug
30%
−2.6%
n=20
Sep
55%
+0.4%
n=20
Oct
60%
+0.5%
n=20
Nov
70%
+3.9%
n=20
Dec
65%
+3.6%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$101$642026-06-11: 1 insider sale, $30K — Ames Christy2026-06-10: 1 insider sale, $251K — Powell Anthony T2026-02-26: 1 insider sale, $74K — Sanchez Alejandro M2026-02-26: 1 insider purchase, $10K — TRAGER SCOTT2025-12-11: 1 insider sale, $10K — Starke Jeff2025-09-15: 1 insider sale, $30K — Ames Christy2025-09-03: 1 insider sale, $92K — Montano Juan2025-09: 2 open-market sales, $123K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $10K2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $10K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $74K2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $280K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Ames Christy — Sale on 2026-06-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Powell Anthony T — Sale on 2026-06-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Sanchez Alejandro M — Sale on 2026-02-26, filed 4 days after the tradedirector TRAGER SCOTT — Purchase on 2026-02-26, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Starke Jeff — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Ames Christy — Sale on 2025-09-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Montano Juan — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 12 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-11Ames ChristyofficerSale340 @ $87.90$30K−5.2% of holding+0.3%not yet — horizon still open6,145Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-10Powell Anthony TofficerSale3,000 @ $83.54$251K−10.8% of holding−2.2%not yet — horizon still open24,691Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-26Sanchez Alejandro MdirectorSale1,044 @ $71.04$74K−100.0% of holding+5.7%+21.2%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-26TRAGER SCOTTdirectorPurchase148 @ $71.13$10K+0.3% of holding+5.7%+21.2%57,684Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11Starke JeffofficerSale137 @ $73.31$10K−2.3% of holding−6.2%+6.7%5,773Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-15Ames ChristyofficerSale400 @ $75.79$30K−7.8% of holding−5.2%−10.0%4,738Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-03Montano JuanofficerSale1,223 @ $75.53$92K−21.6% of holding−10.5%−15.0%4,434Form 4 · filed 12 days after the trade
2025-06-09Ames ChristyofficerSale700 @ $70.50$49K−12.2% of holding+4.2%−14.5%5,044Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-02TRAGER SCOTTdirectorPurchase437 @ $68.73$30K+0.8% of holding+6.7%−13.7%56,327Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-30Rippy John TofficerSale3,082 @ $65.99$203K−11.8% of holding+7.8%+1.1%23,105Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-29Feaster David PdirectorSale809 @ $66.00$53K−15.8% of holding+2.8%−1.2%4,303Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-29Feaster David PdirectorSale597 @ $67.00$40K−10.5% of holding+2.8%−1.2%5,112Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

288 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-30Vogt Mark AdirectorAward / grant32122,361Form 4
2026-06-30MARSHALL ERNEST W JRdirectorAward / grant1999,188Form 4
2026-06-30Green Jennifer NdirectorAward / grant1273,871Form 4
2026-06-30Ravichandran VidyadirectorAward / grant883,798Form 4
2026-06-30Cannon YoaniadirectorAward / grant882,802Form 4
2026-06-30PICHEL LOGANdirectorAward / grant7464,347Form 4
2026-06-30Howell Heather VdirectorAward / grant729,620Form 4
2026-06-30VanAllen CherylofficerAward / grant602,284Form 4
2026-06-30Ames ChristyofficerAward / grant606,204Form 4
2026-06-30Montano JuanofficerAward / grant6013,594Form 4
2026-06-30Nelson William RofficerAward / grant6034,206Form 4
2026-06-30Powell Anthony TofficerAward / grant6024,795Form 4
2026-06-30SIPES KEVIN DofficerAward / grant6076,745Form 4
2026-06-30Starke JeffofficerAward / grant606,588Form 4
2026-06-30Nardi ScottofficerAward / grant582,275Form 4
2026-06-30Mulloy William Patrick IIdirectorAward / grant3328,260Form 4
2026-06-30Feaster David PdirectorAward / grant175,738Form 4
2026-05-20Sanchez Alejandro MdirectorAward / grant510510Form 4
2026-05-20Huval Timothy S.directorAward / grant5102,873Form 4
2026-05-20Vogt Mark AdirectorAward / grant51022,041Form 4
2026-05-20Green Jennifer NdirectorAward / grant5103,744Form 4
2026-05-20Oyler William Kennett IIdirectorAward / grant5104,349Form 4
2026-05-20MARSHALL ERNEST W JRdirectorAward / grant5108,989Form 4
2026-05-20Cannon YoaniadirectorAward / grant5102,714Form 4
2026-05-20Ravichandran VidyadirectorAward / grant5103,709Form 4
2026-05-20Howell Heather VdirectorAward / grant5109,548Form 4
2026-05-08Trager Kusman AndrewdirectorGift83,818346,421Form 4
2026-05-08Trager Kusman AndrewdirectorGift2,1644,599Form 4
2026-05-08Trager Kusman AndrewdirectorGift20,51684,791Form 4
2026-05-08Trager Kusman AndrewdirectorGift9,65620,524Form 4
2026-04-22Ames ChristyofficerWithheld for tax1,8596,485Form 4
2026-04-22Ames ChristyofficerOption exercise2,6888,344Form 4
2026-04-22Ames ChristyofficerOption exercise2,6880Form 4
2026-04-10SIPES KEVIN DofficerWithheld for tax4,13076,593Form 4
2026-04-10SIPES KEVIN DofficerOption exercise5,37680,723Form 4
2026-04-10SIPES KEVIN DofficerOption exercise5,3760Form 4
2026-03-31Vogt Mark AdirectorAward / grant22721,470Form 4
2026-03-31Ravichandran VidyadirectorAward / grant1843,185Form 4
2026-03-31Feaster David PdirectorAward / grant1845,707Form 4
2026-03-31Cannon YoaniadirectorAward / grant1842,191Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.