Issued 2026-09-25 at $14.50 · now $14.50 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, RARE has typically landed between $11.48 and $17.72 — a range of −20.8% to +22.2% from the issuance price $14.50.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,161 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-01-31 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($14.50) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RARE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $14.5 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $14.5 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $14.16 (-2.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.84–$15.47
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.48–$17.72
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,161 windows spanning 2014-01-31 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2015-12-29 | −51.7% | −51.7% | +0.0% |
| 2026-08-17 | −50.7% | −50.7% | +1.5% |
| 2026-08-14 | −50.7% | −50.7% | +0.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2014-02-10 | +72.1% | +0.0% | +72.1% |
| 2020-03-23 | +69.2% | +0.0% | +69.2% |
| 2020-03-18 | +67.6% | +0.0% | +67.6% |
3,161 overlapping windows · 2014-01-31 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- January 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Setrusumab in Pediatric Japanese Subjects With Osteogenesis Imperfecta (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- August 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Determine the Effect of Triheptanoin Compared With Even-Chain MCT on MCEs in Pediatric Patients With LC-FAOD (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- August 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Follow-up Study of AAV-Mediated Gene Transfer (UX111; Previously Known as ABO-102) for MPS Type IIIA (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- September 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Clinical Study of DTX301 AAV-Mediated Gene Transfer for Ornithine Transcarbamylase (OTC) Deficiency (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- February 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Long-term Extension of GTX-102 in Angelman Syndrome (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- March 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2/Phase PHASE3 primary completion: Phase I/II/III Gene Transfer Clinical Trial of scAAV9.U1a.hSGSH (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- March 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Phase 1/2/3 Study of UX701 Gene Therapy in Adults With Wilson Disease (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- January 2030 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Safety and Efficacy Study of GTX-102 in Subjects With Deletion- or Nondeletion-type Angelman Syndrome (AS) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
+1.7%
n=12
Feb
54%
+6.5%
n=13
Mar
38%
−6.0%
n=13
Apr
38%
+1.8%
n=13
May
38%
+2.5%
n=13
Jun
77%
+9.0%
n=13
Jul
38%
−1.9%
n=13
Aug
62%
+3.3%
n=13
Sep
23%
−8.3%
n=13
Oct
25%
−5.6%
n=12
Nov
50%
+3.7%
n=12
Dec
58%
+1.6%
n=12
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Huizenga Theodore Alan | officer | Sale | 1,283 @ $13.57 | $17K | −1.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 67,863 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-03 | Huizenga Theodore Alan | officer | Sale | 161 @ $13.99 | $2K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 69,146 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Horn Howard | officer | Sale | 4,696 @ $24.92 | $117K | −4.6% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 96,295 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Parschauer Karah Herdman | director | Sale | 1,900 @ $24.92 | $47K | −2.0% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 92,562 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Horn Howard | officer | Sale | 4,698 @ $33.13 | $156K | −4.4% of holding | −23.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 100,991 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Sanders Corazon (Corsee) D. | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $25.05 | $50K | −8.7% of holding | +19.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,095 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | Parschauer Karah Herdman | director | Sale | 1,899 @ $24.62 | $47K | −2.0% of holding | +19.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 94,462 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-01 | Horn Howard | officer | Sale | 4,653 @ $23.77 | $111K | −4.2% of holding | +43.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 105,689 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-18 | SULIMAN SHEHNAAZ | director | Sale | 5,740 @ $25.12 | $144K | −17.0% of holding | +10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,951 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-05 | Crombez Eric | director | Sale | 344 @ $24.96 | $9K | −0.3% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 111,189 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Horn Howard | officer | Sale | 4,683 @ $24.90 | $117K | −4.1% of holding | −17.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 110,342 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Horn Howard | officer | Sale | 4,683 @ $20.97 | $98K | −5.5% of holding | +5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 80,351 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Parschauer Karah Herdman | director | Sale | 3,508 @ $22.67 | $80K | −5.0% of holding | +4.0% | −50.5% | 66,820 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Parschauer Karah Herdman | director | Sale | 6,018 @ $21.40 | $129K | −7.9% of holding | +10.6% | −43.2% | 70,328 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Horn Howard | officer | Sale | 1,635 @ $22.40 | $37K | −1.9% of holding | +0.5% | +4.4% | 85,034 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-02 | KAKKIS EMIL D | director | Sale | 54,404 @ $22.80 | $1.2M | −7.6% of holding | −4.0% | −2.8% | 658,994 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Harris Erik | director | Sale | 10,539 @ $22.80 | $240K | −10.5% of holding | −4.0% | −2.8% | 89,515 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Pinion John Richard | officer | Sale | 10,029 @ $22.80 | $229K | −8.4% of holding | −4.0% | −2.8% | 110,026 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Parschauer Karah Herdman | director | Sale | 8,135 @ $22.80 | $185K | −9.6% of holding | −4.0% | −2.8% | 76,346 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Crombez Eric | director | Sale | 7,029 @ $22.80 | $160K | −8.4% of holding | −4.0% | −2.8% | 76,301 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Horn Howard | officer | Sale | 5,290 @ $22.80 | $121K | −5.6% of holding | −4.0% | −2.8% | 89,788 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Horn Howard | officer | Sale | 3,119 @ $22.54 | $70K | −3.5% of holding | −4.0% | −2.8% | 86,669 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Huizenga Theodore Alan | officer | Sale | 1,632 @ $22.80 | $37K | −3.2% of holding | −4.0% | −2.8% | 48,670 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Horn Howard | officer | Sale | 3,061 @ $23.56 | $72K | −3.3% of holding | −10.5% | −7.3% | 88,935 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Horn Howard | officer | Sale | 3,150 @ $22.84 | $72K | −3.3% of holding | +4.2% | +42.0% | 91,996 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-29 | Huizenga Theodore Alan | officer | Sale | 85 @ $34.38 | $3K | −0.2% of holding | +22.2% | +55.2% | 50,450 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Horn Howard | officer | Sale | 3,081 @ $36.38 | $112K | −3.1% of holding | −33.7% | −40.9% | 95,146 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-13 | Horn Howard | officer | Sale | 7,942 @ $31.51 | $250K | −7.5% of holding | +0.8% | −27.5% | 98,227 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Huizenga Theodore Alan | officer | Sale | 64 @ $29.17 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | +11.5% | −30.5% | 50,242 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Parschauer Karah Herdman | director | Sale | 2,450 @ $31.17 | $76K | −3.2% of holding | +4.5% | −30.4% | 73,271 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-05 | Huizenga Theodore Alan | officer | Sale | 84 @ $31.39 | $3K | −0.2% of holding | −9.2% | −34.3% | 50,306 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | Sanders Corazon (Corsee) D. | director | Sale | 2,405 @ $37.39 | $90K | −13.6% of holding | −34.6% | −25.7% | 15,344 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Crombez Eric | director | Sale | 520 @ $39.24 | $20K | −0.7% of holding | −11.6% | −35.9% | 71,530 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-21 | Crombez Eric | director | Sale | 242 @ $35.11 | $8K | −0.3% of holding | −9.9% | −34.2% | 71,680 | Form 4 · filed 14 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | Horn Howard | officer | Sale | 1,785 @ $40.40 | $72K | −1.7% of holding | −7.5% | −34.2% | 106,169 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | KAKKIS EMIL D | director | Sale | 73,434 @ $42.10 | $3.1M | −10.3% of holding | −14.4% | −32.7% | 641,731 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Harris Erik | director | Sale | 15,103 @ $42.10 | $636K | −14.7% of holding | −14.4% | −32.7% | 87,855 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Pinion John Richard | officer | Sale | 14,439 @ $42.10 | $608K | −11.8% of holding | −14.4% | −32.7% | 107,766 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Parschauer Karah Herdman | director | Sale | 12,846 @ $42.10 | $541K | −14.6% of holding | −14.4% | −32.7% | 75,287 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Crombez Eric | director | Sale | 8,945 @ $42.10 | $377K | −11.1% of holding | −14.4% | −32.7% | 71,922 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Kassberg Thomas Richard | director | Sale | 6,028 @ $42.10 | $254K | −2.2% of holding | −14.4% | −32.7% | 265,238 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Huizenga Theodore Alan | officer | Sale | 967 @ $42.10 | $41K | −1.9% of holding | −14.4% | −32.7% | 50,265 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | KAKKIS EMIL D | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $42.48 | $1.1M | −1.1% of holding | −10.1% | −39.4% | 2,158,985 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Parschauer Karah Herdman | director | Sale | 2,230 @ $42.93 | $96K | −3.8% of holding | −5.2% | −39.4% | 55,751 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Parschauer Karah Herdman | director | Sale | 760 @ $42.75 | $32K | −1.4% of holding | −5.2% | −39.4% | 54,991 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-30 | KAKKIS EMIL D | director | Sale | 11,727 @ $42.23 | $495K | −0.5% of holding | −0.5% | −12.5% | 2,183,985 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | KAKKIS EMIL D | director | Sale | 8,273 @ $50.00 | $414K | −0.4% of holding | −8.9% | −23.3% | 2,195,712 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-10-10 | Horn Howard | officer | Sale | 7,465 @ $52.76 | $394K | −7.5% of holding | −10.3% | −29.4% | 92,301 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-09-03 | KAKKIS EMIL D | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $55.85 | $1.1M | −0.9% of holding | −3.6% | −32.6% | 2,223,985 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-09-03 | Huizenga Theodore Alan | officer | Sale | 91 @ $56.19 | $5K | −0.2% of holding | −3.6% | −32.6% | 41,551 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-06 | KAKKIS EMIL D | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $50.17 | $1.0M | −0.9% of holding | +8.2% | −24.9% | 2,243,985 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-07-02 | Sanders Corazon (Corsee) D. | director | Sale | 584 @ $40.98 | $24K | −4.6% of holding | +8.9% | −4.7% | 12,009 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-06-12 | Parschauer Karah Herdman | director | Sale | 9,806 @ $45.00 | $441K | −14.5% of holding | −4.5% | −3.5% | 57,981 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-06-10 | Sanders Corazon (Corsee) D. | director | Sale | 1,737 @ $41.10 | $71K | −19.3% of holding | +0.4% | +3.9% | 7,248 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-05-02 | Crombez Eric | director | Sale | 354 @ $43.66 | $15K | −0.7% of holding | −9.3% | +4.7% | 48,431 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-04-18 | Crombez Eric | director | Sale | 142 @ $44.10 | $6K | −0.3% of holding | −9.5% | +13.6% | 48,785 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-03-11 | Kassberg Thomas Richard | director | Sale | 11,509 @ $49.93 | $575K | −4.4% of holding | +5.5% | +6.8% | 252,823 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-03-07 | Fust Matthew K | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $50.88 | $382K | −33.5% of holding | −2.3% | +3.0% | 14,860 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-07 | Fust Matthew K | director | Sale | 2,550 @ $50.89 | $130K | −9.4% of holding | −2.3% | +3.0% | 24,505 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-07 | Fust Matthew K | director | Sale | 2,145 @ $50.85 | $109K | −8.8% of holding | −2.3% | +3.0% | 22,360 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
129 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | Dunsire Deborah | director | Award / grant | 7,751 | 38,566 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Dunsire Deborah | director | Award / grant | 14,058 | 14,058 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Ray Amrit | director | Award / grant | 7,751 | 31,116 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Ray Amrit | director | Award / grant | 14,058 | 14,058 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | WELCH DANIEL G | director | Award / grant | 7,751 | 40,441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | NARACHI MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 7,751 | 40,441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | WELCH DANIEL G | director | Award / grant | 14,058 | 14,058 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Sanders Corazon (Corsee) D. | director | Award / grant | 7,751 | 23,095 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | NARACHI MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 14,058 | 14,058 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Sanders Corazon (Corsee) D. | director | Award / grant | 14,058 | 14,058 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | SULIMAN SHEHNAAZ | director | Award / grant | 7,751 | 33,691 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | SULIMAN SHEHNAAZ | director | Award / grant | 14,058 | 14,058 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Fust Matthew K | director | Award / grant | 7,751 | 33,696 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Fust Matthew K | director | Award / grant | 14,058 | 14,058 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Huizenga Theodore Alan | officer | Award / grant | 7,348 | 7,348 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Huizenga Theodore Alan | officer | Award / grant | 20,241 | 68,911 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Huang Dennis Karl | officer | Award / grant | 23,116 | 147,845 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Huang Dennis Karl | officer | Award / grant | 79,936 | 79,936 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | KAKKIS EMIL D | director | Award / grant | 76,745 | 735,739 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | KAKKIS EMIL D | director | Award / grant | 132,693 | 132,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Parschauer Karah Herdman | director | Award / grant | 28,895 | 95,715 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Parschauer Karah Herdman | director | Award / grant | 49,960 | 49,960 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Pinion John Richard | officer | Award / grant | 23,116 | 133,142 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Pinion John Richard | officer | Award / grant | 79,936 | 79,936 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Crombez Eric | director | Award / grant | 34,674 | 110,975 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Crombez Eric | director | Award / grant | 59,952 | 59,952 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Harris Erik | director | Award / grant | 28,895 | 118,410 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Horn Howard | officer | Award / grant | 34,674 | 115,025 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Horn Howard | officer | Award / grant | 59,952 | 59,952 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Harris Erik | director | Award / grant | 49,960 | 49,960 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Huang Dennis Karl | officer | Withheld for tax | 999 | 124,729 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Huizenga Theodore Alan | officer | Withheld for tax | 148 | 50,302 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Pinion John Richard | officer | Award / grant | 11,137 | 119,565 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Parschauer Karah Herdman | director | Award / grant | 11,137 | 84,408 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Huang Dennis Karl | officer | Award / grant | 11,137 | 125,728 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Harris Erik | director | Award / grant | 11,643 | 99,498 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Horn Howard | officer | Award / grant | 6,143 | 95,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Crombez Eric | director | Award / grant | 11,643 | 83,173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | KAKKIS EMIL D | director | Award / grant | 71,177 | 712,908 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Dunsire Deborah | director | Award / grant | 10,787 | 10,787 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.