Issued 2026-08-13 at $26.86 · now $26.38 (2026-08-13, −1.8% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, RARE has typically landed between $21.45 and $32.86 — a range of −20.1% to +22.4% from the issuance price $26.86.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,131 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-01-31 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($26.86) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RARE has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $26.86 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $26.38 (-1.8%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $26.24 (-2.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $23.78–$28.71
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $21.45–$32.86
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2015-12-29 | −51.7% | −51.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-13 | −46.3% | −46.3% | +0.0% |
| 2015-12-28 | −46.1% | −46.1% | +2.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2014-02-10 | +72.1% | +0.0% | +72.1% |
| 2020-03-23 | +69.2% | +0.0% | +69.2% |
| 2020-03-18 | +67.6% | +0.0% | +67.6% |
3,131 overlapping windows · 2014-01-31 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- January 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Setrusumab in Pediatric Japanese Subjects With Osteogenesis Imperfecta (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- August 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Determine the Effect of Triheptanoin Compared With Even-Chain MCT on MCEs in Pediatric Patients With LC-FAOD (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- August 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Follow-up Study of AAV-Mediated Gene Transfer (UX111; Previously Known as ABO-102) for MPS Type IIIA (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- September 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Clinical Study of DTX301 AAV-Mediated Gene Transfer for Ornithine Transcarbamylase (OTC) Deficiency (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- February 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Long-term Extension of GTX-102 in Angelman Syndrome (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- March 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2/Phase PHASE3 primary completion: Phase I/II/III Gene Transfer Clinical Trial of scAAV9.U1a.hSGSH (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- March 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Phase 1/2/3 Study of UX701 Gene Therapy in Adults With Wilson Disease (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- January 2030 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Safety and Efficacy Study of GTX-102 in Subjects With Deletion- or Nondeletion-type Angelman Syndrome (AS) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
No insider transactions on record in the last 90 days.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.