RAL · TickerCove

RALRalliant Corpas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $67.58 · now $67.58 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RAL has typically landed between $57.61 and $80.44 — a range of −14.7% to +19.0% from the issuance price $67.58.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

276 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-06-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($67.58) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$67.58 · 83% of range

$38.31 low$73.63 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Distribution ranges onlyiThis name has too little trading history to publish a calibrated probability, so we show its distribution ranges only — no directional call. Its record is still building.

No directional probability — ranges below.

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+2.8%

typical move · IQR 15.2%

−14.7%worst (p90)+19.0%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 1 sells · 1 member

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where RAL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $67.58 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $67.58 (+0.0%)
typical $69.48 (+2.8%)
middle 50% $64.36–$74.6
90% range $57.61–$80.44

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 276 windows spanning 2025-06-25 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2026-01-06	−26.2%	−26.2%	+8.2%
2026-01-07	−24.2%	−26.4%	+7.9%
2026-01-22	−22.4%	−29.3%	+3.7%
3 best
2026-04-28	+42.3%	−0.4%	+42.7%
2026-04-29	+41.9%	+0.0%	+43.3%
2026-04-27	+40.9%	−1.7%	+40.9%

276 overlapping windows · 2025-06-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

100%

+4.0%

n=1

Feb

−13.4%

n=1

Mar

−9.3%

n=1

Apr

100%

+9.2%

n=1

May

100%

+36.2%

n=1

Jun

100%

+19.1%

n=1

Jul

−5.2%

n=2

Aug

−10.3%

n=2

Sep

100%

+7.1%

n=2

Oct

100%

+0.4%

n=1

Nov

100%

+12.4%

n=1

Dec

100%

+3.2%

n=1

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-14	Newcombe Tamara S.	director	Sale	12,936 @ $65.30	$845K	−5.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	246,897	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Bick Karen M.	officer	Sale	6,062 @ $72.00	$436K	−16.1% of holding	−3.7%	not yet — horizon still open	31,668	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-14	Newcombe Tamara S.	director	Sale	12,936 @ $71.79	$929K	−4.9% of holding	−6.8%	not yet — horizon still open	251,967	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-28	Osben Teo	officer	Sale	27,058 @ $62.44	$1.7M	−36.2% of holding	+17.8%	not yet — horizon still open	47,658	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-05	Bick Karen M.	officer	Sale	2,530 @ $46.50	$118K	−5.6% of holding	−6.4%	not yet — horizon still open	42,652	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-03	Bick Karen M.	officer	Sale	5,485 @ $45.00	$247K	−10.5% of holding	−3.4%	not yet — horizon still open	46,756	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-10	MITCHELL KATE	director	Purchase	2,350 @ $42.48	$100K	+38.8% of holding	+3.7%	+31.9%	8,411	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-09	Sacks Anelise Angelino	director	Purchase	2,000 @ $41.25	$83K	+58.8% of holding	+13.8%	+42.4%	5,403	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-06	Kazmi Amir A.	officer	Purchase	2,545 @ $39.27	$100K	+6.8% of holding	+15.0%	+50.6%	39,699	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-06	Worrell Brian	director	Purchase	2,500 @ $39.93	$100K	+73.4% of holding	+15.0%	+50.6%	5,904	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-06	MOORTHY GANESH	director	Purchase	2,000 @ $39.74	$79K	+31.1% of holding	+15.0%	+50.6%	8,434	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-06	Bryant Kevin E.	director	Purchase	1,250 @ $39.97	$50K	+36.7% of holding	+15.0%	+50.6%	4,653	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-13	MOORTHY GANESH	director	Purchase	2,000 @ $45.17	$90K	+45.1% of holding	−10.2%	−11.6%	6,434	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

126 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-14	Newcombe Tamara S.	director	Option exercise	9,633	256,530	Form 4
2026-09-14	Newcombe Tamara S.	director	Option exercise	3,303	259,833	Form 4
2026-09-14	Newcombe Tamara S.	director	Option exercise	3,303	16,516	Form 4
2026-09-14	Newcombe Tamara S.	director	Option exercise	9,633	48,168	Form 4
2026-08-15	Osben Teo	officer	Award / grant	14,542	60,104	Form 4
2026-08-15	Osben Teo	officer	Award / grant	14,542	60,104	Form 4
2026-08-15	Osben Teo	officer	Award / grant	14,542	60,104	Form 4
2026-08-15	Osben Teo	officer	Award / grant	14,542	60,104	Form 4
2026-08-14	Reynolds Neill	officer	Withheld for tax	5,674	55,266	Form 4
2026-08-14	Newcombe Tamara S.	director	Withheld for tax	5,070	246,897	Form 4
2026-08-14	Bick Karen M.	officer	Withheld for tax	4,922	37,730	Form 4
2026-08-14	Kazmi Amir A.	officer	Withheld for tax	4,345	42,439	Form 4
2026-08-14	Newcombe Tamara S.	director	Option exercise	9,633	261,600	Form 4
2026-08-14	Osben Teo	officer	Withheld for tax	2,096	45,562	Form 4
2026-08-14	Newcombe Tamara S.	director	Option exercise	3,303	264,903	Form 4
2026-08-14	Boatman Jonathon E.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,070	28,718	Form 4
2026-08-14	Newcombe Tamara S.	director	Option exercise	3,303	19,819	Form 4
2026-08-14	Newcombe Tamara S.	director	Option exercise	9,633	57,801	Form 4
2026-06-23	Newcombe Tamara S.	director	Award / grant	11	14,692	Form 4
2026-06-23	Osben Teo	officer	Award / grant	4	5,440	Form 4
2026-06-23	Bick Karen M.	officer	Award / grant	4	4,936	Form 4
2026-06-23	Reynolds Neill	officer	Award / grant	2	2,395	Form 4
2026-06-23	Kazmi Amir A.	officer	Award / grant	2	2,058	Form 4
2026-06-23	Boatman Jonathon E.	officer	Award / grant	2	2,072	Form 4
2026-06-05	Muller Luis A	director	Award / grant	1,698	10,389	Form 4
2026-06-05	Worrell Brian	director	Award / grant	3,225	9,129	Form 4
2026-06-05	Bryant Kevin E.	director	Award / grant	3,225	7,878	Form 4
2026-06-05	MITCHELL KATE	director	Award / grant	3,225	3,225	Form 4
2026-06-05	MOORTHY GANESH	director	Award / grant	4,074	12,508	Form 4
2026-06-05	Muller Luis A	director	Award / grant	3,225	8,691	Form 4
2026-06-05	SPOON ALAN G	director	Award / grant	3,225	32,652	Form 4
2026-06-05	Schrimsher Neil A	director	Award / grant	3,225	6,628	Form 4
2026-06-05	Sacks Anelise Angelino	director	Award / grant	3,225	8,628	Form 4
2026-05-28	Osben Teo	officer	Option exercise	10,341	57,999	Form 4
2026-05-28	Osben Teo	officer	Option exercise	9,985	67,984	Form 4
2026-05-28	Osben Teo	officer	Option exercise	6,732	74,716	Form 4
2026-05-28	Osben Teo	officer	Option exercise	10,341	0	Form 4
2026-05-28	Osben Teo	officer	Option exercise	6,732	6,733	Form 4
2026-05-28	Osben Teo	officer	Option exercise	9,985	3,330	Form 4
2026-05-15	Kazmi Amir A.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,692	46,784	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Gilbert Cisneros	House	sale	2025-08-14	2025-07-09	$15–50K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Seasonality · by month i