RAIL · TickerCove

RAILFreightCar America, Inc.Industrials · Railroadsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $7.19 · now $7.19 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RAIL has typically landed between $5.43 and $9.75 — a range of −24.5% to +35.5% from the issuance price $7.19.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($7.19) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$7.19 · 7% of range

$6.66 low$14.8 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.7%

typical move · IQR 24.3%

−24.5%worst (p90)+35.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where RAIL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $7.19 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $7.19 (+0.0%)
typical $7.14 (-0.7%)
middle 50% $6.27–$8.01
90% range $5.43–$9.75

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2019-10-22	−58.1%	−58.1%	+0.0%
2020-02-18	−55.0%	−55.0%	+0.0%
2019-10-21	−54.8%	−54.8%	+0.0%
3 best
2024-08-12	+165.3%	+0.0%	+165.3%
2024-08-07	+157.5%	+0.0%	+157.5%
2024-08-08	+157.2%	+0.0%	+157.2%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

55%

+3.7%

n=20

Feb

50%

+1.4%

n=20

Mar

45%

−0.1%

n=20

Apr

65%

+5.8%

n=20

May

25%

−2.5%

n=20

Jun

35%

−1.6%

n=20

Jul

45%

+1.9%

n=20

Aug

30%

+1.8%

n=20

Sep

50%

+4.8%

n=20

Oct

45%

+0.0%

n=20

Nov

35%

−3.7%

n=20

Dec

55%

−0.4%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-06-24	Perez Celia	officer	Sale	7,982 @ $8.59	$69K	−13.7% of holding	+25.6%	−9.6%	50,326	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-14	Gil Benavides Alejandro	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	500 @ $7.26	$4K	+0.3% of holding	+16.6%	+0.4%	183,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-13	Gil Benavides Alejandro	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	2,500 @ $7.02	$18K	+1.4% of holding	+22.5%	+7.5%	182,500	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

40 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-10	Pickard Bradley J	director	Award / grant	8,175	8,175	Form 4
2026-04-10	Meyer James R	director	Award / grant	8,959	36,746	Form 4
2026-04-10	Gil Benavides Jesus Salvador	director	Award / grant	8,959	385,621	Form 4
2026-04-10	Kelly Travis D	director	Award / grant	8,959	39,827	Form 4
2026-04-10	De Nigris Felan Jose	director	Award / grant	8,959	92,566	Form 4
2026-04-10	Arnold Elizabeth K	director	Award / grant	8,959	135,418	Form 4
2026-04-10	MOORE MALCOLM F	director	Award / grant	8,959	156,485	Form 4
2026-04-10	Boehm Rodger L	director	Award / grant	8,959	81,694	Form 4
2026-01-13	Riordan Michael Anthony	officer	Award / grant	14,000	14,000	Form 4
2026-01-13	Randall Nicholas J	director	Award / grant	35,900	35,900	Form 4
2026-01-13	Tonn W Matthew	officer	Award / grant	13,540	13,540	Form 4
2026-01-13	Fuentes Sierra Juan Carlos	officer	Award / grant	3,330	3,330	Form 4
2026-01-06	Tonn W Matthew	officer	Withheld for tax	12,328	239,151	Form 4
2026-01-06	Riordan Michael Anthony	officer	Withheld for tax	11,133	155,426	Form 4
2026-01-06	Fuentes Sierra Juan Carlos	officer	Withheld for tax	5,266	41,384	Form 4
2025-06-11	Perez Celia	officer	Withheld for tax	7,626	58,308	Form 4
2025-06-11	Perez Celia	officer	Option exercise	7,826	61,106	Form 4
2025-06-11	Perez Celia	officer	Option exercise	4,828	65,934	Form 4
2025-06-04	Perez Celia	officer	Withheld for tax	6,498	53,280	Form 4
2025-06-04	Perez Celia	officer	Option exercise	9,050	59,778	Form 4
2025-05-14	MOORE MALCOLM F	director	Award / grant	10,460	147,526	Form 4
2025-05-14	Meyer James R	director	Award / grant	10,460	27,787	Form 4
2025-05-14	Arnold Elizabeth K	director	Award / grant	10,460	126,459	Form 4
2025-05-14	Boehm Rodger L	director	Award / grant	10,460	72,735	Form 4
2025-05-14	De Nigris Felan Jose	director	Award / grant	10,460	83,607	Form 4
2025-05-14	Gil Benavides Jesus Salvador	director	Award / grant	10,460	376,662	Form 4
2025-05-14	Kelly Travis D	director	Award / grant	10,460	30,868	Form 4
2025-03-21	Riordan Michael Anthony	officer	Withheld for tax	17,803	166,559	Form 4
2025-03-11	Fuentes Sierra Juan Carlos	officer	Withheld for tax	4,260	46,650	Form 4
2025-01-17	Tonn W Matthew	officer	Withheld for tax	14,896	251,479	Form 4
2025-01-09	Fuentes Sierra Juan Carlos	officer	Award / grant	3,891	3,891	Form 4
2025-01-09	Riordan Michael Anthony	officer	Award / grant	19,276	184,362	Form 4
2025-01-09	Riordan Michael Anthony	officer	Award / grant	26,426	26,426	Form 4
2025-01-09	Randall Nicholas J	director	Award / grant	46,277	197,376	Form 4
2025-01-09	Randall Nicholas J	director	Award / grant	63,444	63,444	Form 4
2025-01-09	Tonn W Matthew	officer	Award / grant	19,276	266,375	Form 4
2025-01-09	Tonn W Matthew	officer	Award / grant	26,426	26,426	Form 4
2025-01-09	Perez Celia	officer	Award / grant	7,746	50,728	Form 4
2025-01-09	Perez Celia	officer	Award / grant	4,551	4,551	Form 4
2025-01-09	Fuentes Sierra Juan Carlos	officer	Award / grant	6,622	50,910	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i